BTC pinned below 116k: FOMC to break the range

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Market Overview
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BTC is coiling into the FOMC: capped at 115–116k and defended at 112.7k, with volatility set to expand on the trigger.

• Momentum: Range with a tactical bearish tilt 📉 — compression below 115–116k, dip buyers active at 112.7k.
  
• Key levels:
  Resistances (HTF): 114.9–115.1k (1D/4H), 116.0k (1D/12H), 117.9k (1D extension).
  Supports (HTF): 112.7k (1D/12H), 111.7k (HTF), 109.05–109.07k (2H/6H/1D cluster).
  
• Volumes: Moderate on 1D; “normal” intraday; “very high” on 30m during impulses.
  
• Multi-timeframe signals: 12H Down while 1D is Up — transitional range; a confirmed break above 115–116k would align TFs, otherwise risk of a 112.7k → 109k sweep.
  
• Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL SELL — validates caution and counters any sustained push until 115–116k is reclaimed; favors edge trading.
  

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Trading Playbook
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Strategy: event‑driven range with a risk‑off tilt — trade the edges with confirmation.

• Global bias: NEUTRAL SELL below 115.1–116k; bias invalidated on daily close > 116k.
  
• Opportunities:
  - Breakout buy: Reclaim/close above 115.1–116k with volume, target 121–122k.
  - Buy the dip: Confirmed (≥2H) bullish rejection at 109.05–109.07k, back to 112.7k then 114.9–115.1k.
  - Tactical sell: Clear 114.9–116k rejection (2H/4H bearish close), aim 113.0k then 112.7k, runner 111.7k.
  
• Risk zones / invalidations: A close < 111.7k opens the 109k cluster; a ≥2H close < 109k invalidates dip‑buys.
  
• Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): FOMC cut (25 bps) with possible QT changes; options crowding = whipsaw risk; spot ETF inflows = mild cushion.
  
• Action plan:
  Entry: confirmed post‑breakout retest 116,050–116,200.
  Stop: below 114,900.
  TP1: 117,900; TP2: 121,000–122,000; TP3: let it run if extends.
  R/R: approximately 1:2 to 1:3 depending on fill.
  

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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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Overall, 1D remains constructive but intraday groups lean NEUTRAL SELL, keeping price in an event‑driven range.

• 12H/6H/4H/2H/1H/30m: NEUTRAL SELL with lower highs below 115–116k; supports at 112.7k then 111.7k; highest‑quality demand at 109.05–109.07k, deeper near ~107k.
  
• 1D: Still constructive while 109k holds; a 1D close above 116k would align TFs and open 121–122k (potential squeeze).
  
• Major divergence: 12H Down vs 1D Up — a transitional signal; 115–116k is the decision band for trend alignment or a rotation toward 109k.
  

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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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FOMC‑led macro should decide the range resolution and drive the next volatility expansion.

• Macro events: 25 bps cut expected with QT end/slowdown discussed — direct risk‑on/off catalyst; options are crowded long → whipsaw risk; equities at highs keep the tone constructive but fragile around the event.
  
• Bitcoin analysis: US spot ETF inflows add a small downside cushion; corporate bids and stablecoin mints help demand; technically, >116k unlocks 121–122k, losing 111k ups odds of a 109k flush.
  
• On-chain data: Modest whale prints; stablecoin mints increasing; no clear systemic distribution — tactical support rather than a trigger.
  
• Expected impact: Technical bias stays NEUTRAL SELL until 115–116k is reclaimed; the post‑FOMC reaction should confirm either a squeeze to 121–122k or a liquidity hunt toward 109k.
  

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Key Takeaways
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BTC is in a catalyst‑driven range under a major resistance shelf.

- Overall trend: neutral with a bearish tilt while 115–116k caps.
- Most relevant setup: confirmed breakout above 116k toward 121–122k; alternative is a confirmed dip‑buy at 109.05–109.07k.
- One macro factor: FOMC decision and QT guidance can flip risk tone quickly.
Stay nimble: trade confirmation, not guesses — let the reaction lead.