Hey, so in this chart I decided to forecast the pivot where the correction ends and another wave starts. I decided to plot resistance, support then choose (in my opinion) the three most likely routes price may take, then choose one as the most probable.
NO GO Prediction 1 (Green): Although possible, this path is unlikely due to a lack of trend support and a confirmation with the 200 day MA NO GO Prediction 2 (Red): In my opinion, this is has a higher probability of truth than prediction 1. This is because it eventually catches trend support, but breaks initial support and the 200 day MA GO Prediction 3 (Blue): In my opinion the trajectory of this prediction is will end up holding more truth than the previous three. It catches initial support, catches the 200 day ma and also flows with the greater trends.
Nice work, although I think you might underestimate the possibility of Prediction 2. A shallow retracement to the 0.318 Fib happens only 12% of the time, so a deeper retracement is more probable and this will also give more impotence to a higher move for BTC. All you have based your analysis on is the 200 day ma holding, which it might do, but its more probable that a deeper internal retracement will occur.
Augustus_Lee7
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@pstavs, @pstavs, @pstavs, I do agree with that. It would mirror June 2017 which looks possible. Another reason for my choice, which I left out was that it hasn’t broken it’s ATH. So because of this it wouldn’t need as severe of a re because It hasn’t fully broken out yet. Definitely see a reversal around 3 or 2 though