comparison between the four crashes.. where it seems the chances to recover from here to new ATH is 33.3%
if BTC fails to recover then based on historical fractals the targets are :
**** 6.5% of ATH (2011 2$ dip of 33$) = 1200 $ ( remember the gap from 1300$ to 1880$ in 2017 april-may)
**** 12.5% of ATH (2015 150$ dip of 1156$) = 2400$
**** 25% of ATH (assuming the dip % doubles every cycle) = 4950 $ ( rememeber the gap from 7.9k drop to 5.6k in nov 2017)
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based on the historical charts.. after one more downside (possible double bottom or deeper) we will be entering the accumulation phase ( the boring plateau ) which could last around 4-6 months before taking off..
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in the original post I picked the periods where the 50MA and 100 MA cross happend for comparsion..in all crashes the cross happend after 2-3 month from their ATH levels.
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in addition to dipping to the 200 MA
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decreasing volume on recovery indicates we havent dipped yet !!
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note the similarity in the fractals of the mini speculative bubbles in both 2012 and 2015 where their top price were around 50 % of their ATH 33$ and 1156$
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note that in the original chart we tested the 200 DMA in all the cases..
so the question is “ will the 200 DMA hold as a resistance and we bounce from there ? or we wil break it andl head over to new lows ? “
we will get the answer during the next 2 weeks..
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monthly candles looks similar..check the fib MA levels..
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interesting similarity.. 6$ vs 6000 $ dip --> 11.8 $ vs 11800 $ recovery and same MA levels..
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I am looking to eliminate the 2014 crash as there was fundamental cause like Mt.gox bust..also technically the bounce pattern from the dip does not look as similar to 2013 and 2011 crashes ..
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google trends still in november levels.. in 2013 when bitcoin dipped and bounced the google trends level was the same as at the beginning of the bull run (20$) which indicates market lost hope and interest in bitcoin dipped as well.
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closing the gap at 9k $.. strong bounce from there would mimic the 2013 bounce .. otherwise a free fall toward the 200 MA would be in play.
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historical data shows a quick and easy break of 200 wma and 50 signals a bull trap a and a further deeper correction. While a strugle and consolidation lower these levels were followed with strong bouce to new bull run.
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50 MA
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in summary market behaves opposite the general view !! check the number of long ideas in the main page
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the target of the falling wedge suggests a 1500$ bounce from around 9300$ which just hit ast 10800$
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keep in mind that the 200 MA next week will be around 9K which is key level to close the gap and bounce from there for the new bull run. Otherwise if we fall below ,it will act as a strong resistence and push for the another deep correction.
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"The Efficient Markets Hypothesis fails because humans are herd animals, not independent rational actors. Thus the best investors tend to be antisocial and contrarian.” Naval Ravikant
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a second attempt to reach the recovery high (11800$). Similar attempts happend in all the three crashes..and it was key level for the market to decide.
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following the weekly 21 MA strong rejection the daily 50 MA rejected as well. Now testing the 200 WMA .. watching this level closely as we might close the daily candle below it.
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a bullish scenraio !! just in case
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always skeptical when Bitfinex leads the price..negative correlation with stock markets yesterday and low volume makes me think we are in a big and maybe final bull trap..
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yes it is very similar to 2013 but..the volume is not convincing !
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people are busy with inverse HS pattern..watch out the rising wedge..the target is below 10k and the 50 DMA..
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the previous one was on spot !!
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highest sell volume since february high..expect more sell pressure with initial target around 10450 (20ma & 200WMA cross)
2nd target (maybe tomorrow) is the rising wedge target around 9900K
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initial target reached at 200 WMA.. now it would test the rising wedge target which is at the 50 DMA. around 10K + or - 100$.
a strong bounce from 50 DMA would be a bullish reversal confirmation (see 2013 reversal)..if 50DMA fails to hold then the bearish trend would continue down to 200 DMA and deeper.
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note that ther will be 50 DMA and 200 DMA cross (bear market conformation) in 2 weeks if we dont bounce strong and stay above 11K the next week.
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although it looks similar I am not convinced due to the decreasing low volume contrary to the 2013 reversal
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Rising Wedge Target Reached !!
Further it looks like we are stuck below teh 50 DMA .. BTC need to bounce from here strong until tomorrow..however, if we close the day below 50 DMA (10050$) I am expecting a bearish continuation breaking the neckline.. tradingview.com/chart/Uywxmrks/
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also keep in mind 200 DMA is around 8900$ so the neckline zone is (8800$-9200$) this level is very crucial .. a follow below this level (neckline broken) mean the crash would take the 2011 or 2014 route
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and 2013 reversal scenario would become less likely..
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breaking the neckline...
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Dont listen to Tony Vays..Volume matters !! this is how proper break/bounce occurs unlike fake ones..Volume approaching 100K btc in bitfinex and it is over 30K btc in Gdax/coinbase.. I remeber it was 8K btc in gdax/coinbase when everyone was hyped at 11700 $ levels last week
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yeah I know Mt.gox coins being and still in dump across all exchanges :)
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bullish reversals are always parabolic !
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have you picked your crash ?
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OK HERE ARE TWO OPTIONS TO PICK :
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check the reversal candle in 2013 and strong bounce off 200 DMA + the volume !
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increasing volume along the bounce from 63 $ to 100 $ which made it very hard to break again. As a result it had defended aggressively once the price fell to test the 200DMA (blue line) and bounced quickly breaking the 50 DMA this time.
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I know it may sound a repeat idea over and over again but.. APRIL FOOL’S DAY AROUND THE CORNER !
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LINEAR SCALE COMPARISION..THIS TIME 2014 FRACTAL !
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IT TOOK 56 DAYS IN 2011 TO DROP TO 6 $ ..COINCIDENCE ?
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THE VERY FIRST BITCOIN BUBBLE !
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50 MA now starts from 5th of february (end of dip) which means it will go flat or slightly upward of the 200 MA ..
NO Death cross UNTIL we have 5 consecutive closes below 7500 $ this week or the next week !
if the expected cross delays for another week or two bulls would gain moementum for strong bounce after a decent accumulation around 8K
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“In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” ~ Warren Buffet
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double bottom sceanrio based on 12H 2011 double bottom ! note: original size unedited fractal !
@kenzboard, it definitely would . But..6k bottom will be defended strong ( like the intial 9k buyers defended 9k once we dropped from 13k to 6k)..but the real panick sell would be once 7k does not hold !
avito1
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Very interesting. Thanks for the update. Next few days will be very telling.
Acel
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Hmm, although im a bear in the short term, i think the correction is over. But !!! There is one last bull trap left.
Oh! and bear trap also, lets call it double trap! Things are gonna get nasty soon. :)
elshanti
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@Acel, you definitely might be right but..I dont think anyone will buy again with the same confidence at 7-8k levels (most people buy when price goes up) ..which means weaker volume and resistance leading to a fast drop to 6k level again..just remeber when everybody called 9k the bottom once we reachced 13k recovery then it went sideways between 10-12 k before massively breaking 9k level.