Here is my update on the current impending Bitcoin Megabull Cycle. Annotations are on chart! As you all of you know by now, we had a spot on beautiful megabull rally as I had anticipated back then:
That's until the PBOC and Chinese Exchanges insiders killed the rally as the Bank of China performed investigations on the corrupted Chinese exchanges. It is obvious that these exchanges were all aware of this announcement by PBOC several days before the public did while the megabull or bull-run was ongoing and close to the ATH. Hence the Chinese exchanges orchestrated the brutal sell off of Bitcoin from $1165 down to $750 USD (and on top of margin calls galore). However, the good news lately is that the PBOC has successfully put an end to the illegal insider trading, wash trading of volume, ZERO fees, No KYC informcements, by regulating all the Chinese Bitcoin Exchanges (which is a very good move and step forward for Bitcoin acceptance as a digital currency). Chinese volume across the exchanges went from accounting 90% of the volume to a mere 10 - 6%.
However, this was still a setback to Bitcoin's longtime due bullrun and adoption. But now as we are nearing the Winklevoss ETF on March 11 2017, we could be due for:
1. Another attempt to break out to a new ATH (NOT illustrated here) past $1170 if the Bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC. If approved we are looking at the $1776-1627 range as the target.
2. Otherwise if the Bitcoin ETF is denied, we will revisit the bottom of the longterm bullish ascending triangle from 2016 and 2015 at roughly $850-830. If we do get to this point, please place a stoploss around $800.
3. As the worst case scenario for the megabull, if the bottom of the ascending triangle holds at $830-850, it is very likely that we will repeat the January 2016 pattern and consolidate for several weeks within the triangle before revisiting the top in June at $1170-1140. From there we will consolidate for 36 days before resuming the megabull early August 2017.
It is very important to know that this analysis is based on the old 235 Days Bitcoin Cycle which is still alive until proven NULL. Based on this cycle, Bitcoin will reach the final "ATH" (All Time High) on October 6 2017 (so make sure you sell Bitcoin and close your longs on or few days prior)
The Potential "ATH" Targets for the megabull are: $1,630 USD $1,777 USD $2,800 USD $4,174 USD
The final "ATH" target on October 6 2017 depends on how steep (slope) the uptrend is** ** I will re-evaluate the chart and targets during the megabull and provide an update on a possible final target
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$1175 broken on all Western Exchanges. We can thank the March 11 Bitcoin ETF news for the earlier then expected FOMO and resuming potentially the megabull from where we left off.
Ideally however, I would like to see $1200 USD hit to confirm the break out.
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We made a new ATH at $1,222 Finex or $1,220 Bitstamp before a longtime due correction. Since scenario #1 is playing out earlier than expected due to buying the Bitcoin ETF rumor, the CNY charts give us a clue on our next interim target until the decision is rendered on March 11:
We're looking at 8888-8660CNY or 1310-1290USD before March 11 as the current Time at Mode 21 days cycles ends on March 10 (1 day coincidentally before the decision)
Of course once the ETF is approved, we are looking at the $1776-1627 range as the next target (and more likely way higher - see targets of #3 scenario)
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After achieving new highs by hitting $1222 on Bitfinex (the exchange with currently the highest volume), Bitcoin retreated under $1180 currently at $1150 back in the ascending triangle seen on our chart - it could be that due to the FOMO (fear of missing out) and ETF news that made new money overbuy past these levels.
Currently I will update no further after this update until the image becomes clearer in a few days.
(A) If we are able to get back above $1180 and preferably to $1200 within the next 2 days then we can reach the next temporary top at $1310-1290 prior to March 10-11 or the Bitcoin ETF decision.
(B) Else staying below $1180 for a long time will void the bullish scenario above as per the blue fractal and we should look out for a retrace to $1000-1050 (the 1D mid-band of the Bollinger Band) as depicted on scenario 3 and 1 on the main chart.
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I apologize if I hadn't had time to update this. I am more active on Twitter. Anyways, we managed to build support around $1170-1180 7 days ago and my outlined Scenario (A) was successful as we hit perfectly the area of interest:
If we are able to get back above $1180 and preferably to $1200 within the next 2 days then we can reach the next temporary top at $1310-1290 prior to March 10-11 or the Bitcoin ETF decision.
Lets see if we stay around this area until March 11 ETF Decision or if we keep inching higher and higher towards our next target $1777-1630.
I really recommend to stay in Bitcoin and not convert to fiat in order for you not to miss out unless you know what you are doing. With price discovery within a megabull, TA can't help so much as before. Treat this as a longterm investment and keep watching.
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Just an idea, if the ETF gets denied or we get some kind of shake out remember this huge bearish H & S that could play out which goes well with my initial idea / chart:
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H&S happening faster than expected. Took 2 weeks roughly for my shake out scenario to play out but here we are at $950. 1D RSI close to oversold, I am a buyer around $880-840.
Note: Breaking below $840 would have bearish market repercussion long term. But for now the longterm bulltrend is still intact.
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It is a bummer but volatility never kicked in to the max for us to get that dip below $880. No problem then lets move on with our analysis, after positioning the fractal of 2015 on our longterm megabull chart, we can see that the retrace to $1120 was expected followed by the dump.
If you missed rebuying at the bottom, well good news: we can expect $960-950 support to be eventually retested for a double bottom. In case that support fails, we have the mode / support around $900.
After such a big washdown from $1300 to $950, its wise to expect 2-3 weeks of consolidation and annoying chop/sideways close to the bottom support ($950 and $1000) and close to the bottom neckline. Keep an eye on the 1D RSI as it is close to oversold (30 and lower) and the 4H 1D SQZMOM to detect signs and confirmation of a bottom in the next few weeks/ days.
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Support at $900-880 held and a new neckline has been created. Last night i tweeted that 4H RSI, Willy and SQZMOM indicators were all floored or oversold indicating a potential bottom in the works. I hope you did not sell the bottom ;)
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Also before i forget were also in a bullish falling wedge which is a reversal pattern as long as the wedge breaks to the upside:
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We had a successful bullish reversal from the falling wedge as we expected. We had a bottom as we discussed and we confirmed it by the break out. I tweeted yesterday about the 30min 1H 2H 4H Bands squeezing tight & new Time at mode cycle starting on Wednesday as well, we are not clear yet if the cycle is bullish or an accumulation cycle but I do expect some kind of accumulation or retrace above $1000 support at least on the short term.
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Bitcoin on track to retest per fractal the top of the triangle at $1250 roughly:
Double top on Bitstamp at $1210 or $1274 Bitfinex Fractal analysis verifies the harmonics - so far spot on minus some noise 4H momentum giving an unconfirmed sell signal 21 days time at mode cycle ends tomorrow and new bearish cycle starts.
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Apologies as I have not updated been more than a month this chart. The updates were rather posted on our twitter channel. Watching currently this ascending triangle on Bitstamp
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Another chart outlining am early start of the megabull based on a fractal. Want to know more ? PM me to join the group's live alerts !
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As stated earlier the original chart on Bitstamp is officially VOID. Also if you have followed my twitter channel actively you would have been notified ahead of time of the changes to the Bitcoin megabull.
The megabull has already started (refer to the previous top comment with Bitfinex fractal) and will not wait till June-July. Instead we will be having the biggest megabull ever in the existance of Bitcoin that could progressively keep going up May, June, July, August, September and top on October 9 like originally planned. |
Also Bitstamp just made a new all time high (ATH) today by hitting $1356, breaking the previous ATH of $1350. It was the last exchange that was pending a breakout from last month ETF wick.
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nice analysis. time schedule and range fits with mine
however I do not expect that we past $1170 IF the ETF gets approval but that we should reach about somewhere that range BEFORE as peak of the speculation bubble.
I dont expect a blow-off phase (approval chance 25%) to go lower than 1000 either.
What I find intriguing is that China enforced AML compliance on their exchanges just in time before the approval date. This was always a big approval barrier for the SEC.
looks almost like somebody did a phone call (tinfoil hat on:)
mikenz
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@mikenz, correction: that we pass $15-1700, not 1170 of course
BitcoinGuru
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@mikenz, no worries but $1175 was just broken on all Western Excanges and finex. We can thank the March 11 Bitcoin ETF news for the FOMO and resuming the megabull at this point. Looks like buy the ETF rumor and sell the news at this point.
bysteven
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@BuyBitcoin.WS, why should the megabull resume immediately - that would mix up your cycle.
BitcoinGuru
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@bysteven, referring to my previous chart in Dec-Jan the megabull was in motion until the PBOC released the bad news
and we had a deep retrace down to 700s. This news has now been factored in and although unexpected the Bitcoin market
could very well be ready to resume price discovery and retrace up as Bitcoin is currently undervalued.
The current chart presents August 2017 as the worst case scenario for the megabull cycle if we fail to break above 1170s on the ETF news.
its a wait and see. Ideally I would love to see $1200 hit to confirm the move else, we will go sideways under 1170s until March 11 decision.
its just a wait and see stance at this point
bysteven
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@BuyBitcoin.WS, thanks! I think even if we hit 1200+, negative news on 03/11 will bring us down too 900-
BitcoinGuru
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@bysteven, agreed, a denial of the ETF will definitely have a correction to the price.
tourist
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I hope you are right.
Cassian
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Great analysis.
STIADAYSOFPAST
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Megabull guy providing the best fractal analysis on TradingView, as usual.
however I do not expect that we past $1170 IF the ETF gets approval but that we should reach about somewhere that range BEFORE as peak of the speculation bubble.
I dont expect a blow-off phase (approval chance 25%) to go lower than 1000 either.
What I find intriguing is that China enforced AML compliance on their exchanges just in time before the approval date. This was always a big approval barrier for the SEC.
looks almost like somebody did a phone call (tinfoil hat on:)