Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's jump right in! Looking at the four hour chart, we can see that BTC has found some temporary support, at the red trendline. At the moment, BTC is caught between that red support level and the 61.8% retrace. If you'll notice, the 50 EMA (in orange) is quickly falling toward price action. Judging by how resistive the 50 EMA has been, the odds are that it will continue to put any attempted rallies in check. As you can see, I've drawn a blue bear flag to highlight the bearish consolidation pattern that BTC is forming. While I was conducting my analysis, I was trying to determine if BTC had just formed a higher low. My conclusion was that it's too early to know for sure. The bears still have the advantage, so it wouldn't take much for a continuation wave of selling to send this market lower. When I look at this chart, I see a bear market downtrend. Since it is a bear market downtrend, my bias is toward the downside. Until evidence emerges that suggests that this bear market is over, I will continue to lean bearish. Remember people, the trend is your friend! Don't fight it. Since I know that the trend is my friend, I know that the upside will be limited — until I am proven wrong. People who try to catch the bottom of a bear market, usually get destroyed as the market continues to fall. People who trade with the trend, are usually only wrong once, and that's when the trend confirms a reversal. Looking at the MACD, we can see that it has made a bullish crossover, but not on terribly impressive volume or price movement. With that said, don't lose sight of the fact that we've just confirmed the "heavy resistance" level as the ceiling. Going forward, watch to see what happens in the blue bear flag. If BTC breaks to the downside, the formation of a lower low would be highly likely. However, a break to the upside, particularly above the 50 EMA, would be reason to reassess the possibility that we may have formed a higher low. A break above the heavy resistance level would be a very good sign. However, a confirmation that the bear market is over, will likely come from a sustained breakout above the rising black trendline. Remember, this market is different than it used to be. It is now heavily traded by institutional investors, who are generally more sophisticated than the average crypto investor. They want easy money — and that easy money is currently being made on the downside.
This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Do you have any ideas how the expiration of the futures contracts on the 26th (do I know the date right?) could influence the price movements during the coming days?
Dharne
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I did not understand what do you mean this 50 ema, MACD, and all. Can you please tell me where to learn about all this? Or can u please explain your analysis in simple ways.
Thank you for hard work behind this analysis
skulljuice
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@Dharne, it's called Google search. Give it a try.
@Dharne, EMA means “exponential moving average.” It is an average price, that is constantly plotted on the chart. The 50 EMA, (the orange wavy line) represents the average price of the past 50 periods, at any given point on the chart. The MACD, is the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence. It’s the small wavy graph on the bottom of the chart, and it indicates the strength and momentum in the market.
@Dharne, Investopedia is a good starting point. Look up everything you dont understand and study/research every term at great length before applying it and basing your decisions (and you money) on it.
@EspressoDopio, also look at udemy for free courses or paid one
Tradetech
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Excellent analysis, as always.
Personally, I don't want to be biased, bull or bear that it is.
Being biased is inevitable given our human nature... I'm just saying that for a trader it should be minimized as much as possible.
For me, I start having doubts that after this last dive the price will go much lower... it has been repeatedly rejected and it has substantially failed to generate lower lows. BTC has his ways to surprise...
In other worlds, we might be open to the possibility of a reversal, or at least have a contingency plan just in case.