Sideways action here...I'm waiting for fundamentals to evolve, the chart shows mixed signals that could develop into both a downtrend or an uptrend with equal chance...a bit leaning towards uptrend due to the long term chart, and also the poor follow through to the downside recently. Other than that, I don't yet have a good enough low risk setup here, so, I chose to wait in cash for now. Keep an eye out for the dates on chart.
I can think of a few possibilities, a bullish scenario would be if suddenly the SEC approves the Winkledudes ETF, which could result in everyone forgetting about the China regulatory crackdown risks, and cause a massive short squeeze rally. A bearish scenario would be if we don't get any new positives, and China confirms eventually that they are banning everything, and we see an increase in oversight everywhere, with maybe the CTFC and the SEC making US investors' life hard. The timing for this to unfold will be slow and painful, probably, since China won't make any official remarks, or at least it is unlikely to do so, before 1 month after the end of the Communist party congress, which takes place during October.
Let's wait and see... Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Bình luận
⋅
Giao dịch đang hoạt động
⋅
I bought back a small position at 3680, also bought other coins for my portfolio.
The Kakao stock news, and potentially the fulfilment of Charlie Lee's prediction -based on inside info- that China won't ban BTC mining and transactions, might be the reason prices have been supported. The selloff failed to confirm the bearish momentum with follow through, so, we might see a short squeeze rally after all. Let's see how it evolves, to see if it further confirms this thesis.
Bình luận
⋅
Bình luận
⋅
We hit our daily target, we could consolidate, and then march higher, a few possible scenarios left.
I'm leaning more on the short view. I just opened some small shorts between 3320 and 3330 Euros.
I look at reddit, Bitcointalk, etc. and I think this is what we see just after the pivot - still plenty of bullish feelings in the community and a lot of hope. After the high in 2013 there was a period of several weeks after the first big drop when the price kept going up (to nearly 1000, then consolidated into a huge triangle). There were a lot of bullish predictions at that point, and shorts flipped long... before the triangle broke down.
The "China doesn't matter" attitude is just denial - I did it myself for a couple of weeks but in reality, it's a genuine setback for Bitcoin.
Zooming out on the picture and the big bull run we've already had, it's definitely less risky to have a short view than a long one, I think.
BRRD
⋅
... also to give credit where it is due (if all goes as planned!) @IvanLabrie your projection of a reversal happening at some point before the end of November helps a lot to inform my views here. I believe you have a very realistic idea compared with many of the other pro traders on this platform.
IvanLabrie
⋅
@BRRD, thanks, and best of luck. Right now, I think it's risky to short, on the back if positive news, potentially game changing. The current paradigm is a negative one, once this bias is proven wrong, which appears to be happening, you can expect shorts to get margin called.
Congrats on your call here @IvanLabrie - great trade with bulls now picking up again.
Closed my short some days back at a loss, but made some back through side trades.
Still looking for the big short but not for a week or two perhaps. Fwiw I now recognise the media euphoria from 2013 - thought we had reached it already but the bells are ringing louder today than ever before! Unscrupulous hedge fund managers and "experts" rallying the herd - it's starting to make me feel a bit sick tbh.
I can't bring myself to join this run with any significant funds - prefer to do very short-term small day trades up and down.
I have a little Bitcoin cash in hand - although alts will probably all fall with Bitcoin I think bcash has a chance to rally as an alternative to the messy upcoming sewit2x fork. If Roger Ver and Jihan Wu have ever proved anything it's that they never give up! :)
Congratulations again on your amazing work on tradingview.
ChristianYesdal
⋅
Hello @IvanLabrie!
I've been missing your analysis for bitcoin the last couple of weeks, welcome back =)
Can you explain the latest graph you published? How is the outlook and what do you expect the price will look like this week?
IvanLabrie
⋅
@ChristianYesdal, all the different color paths are different possibilities, need to wait and see which path price takes.