Warning: Bitcoin is coiling in the RSI and may have a breakout!
Hello everyone. teh Salesman is back for a highly detailed analysis :-)
I have been patiently waiting for a good long or short setup now that Bitcoin has been ranging.
I believe we may have a potential opportunity!
Currently, price is printing two *possible* bullish patterns.
A *possible* start to an ascending triangle, and a negatively sloped memeverted head and shoulders CONTINUATION PATTERN. kek.
Fair warning, I am being cautiously optimistic here as I believe the only reason we are at the current price levels is due to an epic short squeeze.
This possibly means no REAL buyers are present. Notice how we created some extremely strong hidden bearish divergence from this rally. The 4h volume was MASSIVE.
We have a POTENTIAL ascending triangle I see with lots of touches to resistance, but only 1 support touch so far. For this pattern to be valid, I would like to see another touch of, and violent rejection of support. This gives us a potentially nice swing setup for a long entry.
A nice long wick with a small candle body, forming a bearish hammer or ideally a bullish hammer with very little top wick would be ideal. A bullish hammer with little top wick would be an extremely positive sign, though I'm not expecting it. Hell who knows, maybe even 'the Satoshi signal'. ;-)
There is a potential inverted head and shoulders developing as well. I do not like how the neckline is sloping down though. This typically means the pattern itself and the target of it is either far from dependable, or the bears are a lot stronger than what it appears and are feigning weakness. Proper Risk Management needs to be adhered to for this trade in the event the patterns either aren't valid, or the targets of either pattern are not reached.
The RSI however is confirming that at least the ascending triangle is probably valid.
Since our $14k peak, the RSI has developed a trend seen by the dashed line.
If you'll notice, especially recently, the 50 level on this time frame has been rejected on at least 3 different occasions after dumping from $13k. These are highlighted for your convenience.
Recently however, a short squeeze was able to push us back above it after slight bullish divergence and hidden bullish divergence in the 4h and 1h timeframes triggered a 'rally.' This rally was able to get us above the 60 level but has since been rejected. I believe we have one more test of the 50 level for support, and if successful we should finally be able to continue past $10,700 and RSI 60.
The 2h 100 MA has proved to be serious resistance, and as I'm sure you are aware, the 4h has had a 50, and 100/200 MA death cross which isn't exactly a great sign to see for this parabolic rally to continue. The 4h 200 MA currently sits at $10,966.
Re-testing these MA's will be crucial to figure out our short to medium term direction. For what it is worth, I believe we will soon see levels below $9k as the CME gap at around $8,500 still has yet to be filled. There is also a potential GIANT head and shoulders on the weekly with the neckline being right around $7.5k. Who knows, maybe the bulls give a GIANT "FU" to CME and create a higher high before we finally retrace. I can't say I'd mind that. "We'll tame Bitcoin." -Leo Melamed (kek)
Keep these levels in mind if we break support at $9k/$10k.
The 50% Fib for this entire move upwards so far sits at $11,124 and is a great place to secure profit and lower risk should we get that far. The 50% fib is also just below the 4h 100 MA and it is arguably THE level that needs to be tested, and will give great data on our short term direction depending on the reaction.
Profit taking should occur right around the 50% fib. For price to continue moving upwards we will want to see a high volume break of this level and subsequent successful support test. For the brave, this is an excellent level to begin hedging with a short. The 61.8% Fib is ideally the level we want to see a high volume break of, though I do not expect that to happen on the first attempt. (Would be a glorious and ballsy show of force from the bulls however..)
In my opinion, the most crucial bullish levels to keep an eye on are;
$10,966 <--- 4h 200 MA which has yet to be tested
$11,124 <--- 50% Fib
$11,485 <--- Target for ascending triangle
$11,614 <--- 61.8% Fib. This is a VERY important one
$12,447 <--- And finally, the pepe inverted head and shoulders neckline.
The most crucial bearish levels are fairly simple;
$10,300
$10k
$9,750
$9k.
I know my risk on this trade and for once am employing good risk management.
Do/are you?
I have been patiently waiting for a good long or short setup now that Bitcoin has been ranging.
I believe we may have a potential opportunity!
Currently, price is printing two *possible* bullish patterns.
A *possible* start to an ascending triangle, and a negatively sloped memeverted head and shoulders CONTINUATION PATTERN. kek.
Fair warning, I am being cautiously optimistic here as I believe the only reason we are at the current price levels is due to an epic short squeeze.
This possibly means no REAL buyers are present. Notice how we created some extremely strong hidden bearish divergence from this rally. The 4h volume was MASSIVE.
We have a POTENTIAL ascending triangle I see with lots of touches to resistance, but only 1 support touch so far. For this pattern to be valid, I would like to see another touch of, and violent rejection of support. This gives us a potentially nice swing setup for a long entry.
A nice long wick with a small candle body, forming a bearish hammer or ideally a bullish hammer with very little top wick would be ideal. A bullish hammer with little top wick would be an extremely positive sign, though I'm not expecting it. Hell who knows, maybe even 'the Satoshi signal'. ;-)
There is a potential inverted head and shoulders developing as well. I do not like how the neckline is sloping down though. This typically means the pattern itself and the target of it is either far from dependable, or the bears are a lot stronger than what it appears and are feigning weakness. Proper Risk Management needs to be adhered to for this trade in the event the patterns either aren't valid, or the targets of either pattern are not reached.
The RSI however is confirming that at least the ascending triangle is probably valid.
Since our $14k peak, the RSI has developed a trend seen by the dashed line.
If you'll notice, especially recently, the 50 level on this time frame has been rejected on at least 3 different occasions after dumping from $13k. These are highlighted for your convenience.
Recently however, a short squeeze was able to push us back above it after slight bullish divergence and hidden bullish divergence in the 4h and 1h timeframes triggered a 'rally.' This rally was able to get us above the 60 level but has since been rejected. I believe we have one more test of the 50 level for support, and if successful we should finally be able to continue past $10,700 and RSI 60.
The 2h 100 MA has proved to be serious resistance, and as I'm sure you are aware, the 4h has had a 50, and 100/200 MA death cross which isn't exactly a great sign to see for this parabolic rally to continue. The 4h 200 MA currently sits at $10,966.
Re-testing these MA's will be crucial to figure out our short to medium term direction. For what it is worth, I believe we will soon see levels below $9k as the CME gap at around $8,500 still has yet to be filled. There is also a potential GIANT head and shoulders on the weekly with the neckline being right around $7.5k. Who knows, maybe the bulls give a GIANT "FU" to CME and create a higher high before we finally retrace. I can't say I'd mind that. "We'll tame Bitcoin." -Leo Melamed (kek)
Keep these levels in mind if we break support at $9k/$10k.
The 50% Fib for this entire move upwards so far sits at $11,124 and is a great place to secure profit and lower risk should we get that far. The 50% fib is also just below the 4h 100 MA and it is arguably THE level that needs to be tested, and will give great data on our short term direction depending on the reaction.
Profit taking should occur right around the 50% fib. For price to continue moving upwards we will want to see a high volume break of this level and subsequent successful support test. For the brave, this is an excellent level to begin hedging with a short. The 61.8% Fib is ideally the level we want to see a high volume break of, though I do not expect that to happen on the first attempt. (Would be a glorious and ballsy show of force from the bulls however..)
In my opinion, the most crucial bullish levels to keep an eye on are;
$10,966 <--- 4h 200 MA which has yet to be tested
$11,124 <--- 50% Fib
$11,485 <--- Target for ascending triangle
$11,614 <--- 61.8% Fib. This is a VERY important one
$12,447 <--- And finally, the pepe inverted head and shoulders neckline.
The most crucial bearish levels are fairly simple;
$10,300
$10k
$9,750
$9k.
I know my risk on this trade and for once am employing good risk management.
Do/are you?
Bình luận:
Am looking at this a little deeper and I'm starting to wonder about the price targets for support.
Seen here on Bitmex are two other trend lines that have a lot more touches than the one in this analysis. I will be looking to go long on the support of the ascending triangle in this analysis but I think I'm going to have tighter risk management on this one. Even though we're in a *bull market* right now, (kek) we cannot ignore the prior weekly candle being bearish engulfing on very high volume.
Be careful on this one.
Bình luận:
Should have*
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OBV and RSI aren't happy with the 30m.
Short squeezes galore..
Short squeezes galore..
Bình luận:
Another one bites the dustttttt
:|
WELP
see you guys at $8k
WELP
see you guys at $8k
Bình luận:
*scratches head*
Hmmm...Possible?
OBV isn't confirming this uptrend, and there is slight hidden bearish divergence.
$10,930 is a very important level here..
This doesn't get invalidated and we're on our way back down to test oversold.
$10,930 is a very important level here..
This doesn't get invalidated and we're on our way back down to test oversold.
Bình luận:
I’ve given the price action sufficient time to see what has developed. For the bullish side of things, I really don’t like what I see. First of all, as stated in prior updates, I am starting to double the original trend line in this analysis. We broke above my ascending triangle without a secondary test of support, but did not meet the target. Instead we had a violent rejection $4 away from the 50% fib. We did not hold support above the prior triangle resistance. Also, the memeverted HS pattern kektinuation neckline is not holding support well enough for my taste. On higher time frames the death crosses for now have been respected. Typically, on a real breakout of a continuation pattern, Bitcoin does NOT significantly break prior resistance, much less close candles below them once having a strong rally above. So far, the triangle support is holding, but for how long? On higher time frames the 4h, 6h, 12h, and daily are all showing fairly significant hidden bearish divergence. Also notice the front page is chock full of IHS kektinuation pattern ideas? Wut.
Currently we are almost perfectly at the trend line support that is in this original idea yet the candles are strong bearish. The first bearish 6h candle after the break of triangle resistance held support flawlessly, but afterwards printed a strong bearish candle breaking what should have flipped to support with minimal lower shadow.
With strong hidden bearish on medium time frames, a bearish engulfing candle on the prior weekly and failure to even WICK back above that candle open, the fact that support keeps breaking, the death crosses on medium time frames, the fact Bitcoin has been rejected at the midline of a parallel channel it has been printing and much more, all signs are pointing bearish. ESPECIALLY considering we have the weekly close coming today only 1 week before a monthly close.
This is more typical of short squeeze rallies, rather than legitimate buyers providing support.
We could, and I fully expect to test prior resistance to confirm a reversal. What if the shorts from them have already been wiped out though? Perfect time for a strong Sunday/Monday dump.
It is of my opinion that $11.4k will likely provide significantly more resistance than $11.1k, if we can even get that far.
For Bitcoin to actually be in a bullrun, these behaviors are not typical to what price action should be showing.
Look to a re test of $11.1k, possibly $11.4k on the bullish side. A close above $11.5k would be a strong indicator that this was a bear trap. Otherwise, we are likely revisiting at minimum $9,750 for a higher low, or we COULD be in full on medium term reversal here which is what I suspect.
Bitmex is being investigated and in recent days has seen a massive outflux of capital from their exchange. BitStamp has also seen a mass INFLUX of Bitcoin.
It is of my opinion we may see a strong continuation of the bearish engulfing weekly candle from last week. Be very careful here on the next moves you make because the bulls may be lying in wait to initiate another short squeeze.
I would say a daily close below $9,500 and we will have a significant chance of creating another local low.
Currently we are almost perfectly at the trend line support that is in this original idea yet the candles are strong bearish. The first bearish 6h candle after the break of triangle resistance held support flawlessly, but afterwards printed a strong bearish candle breaking what should have flipped to support with minimal lower shadow.
With strong hidden bearish on medium time frames, a bearish engulfing candle on the prior weekly and failure to even WICK back above that candle open, the fact that support keeps breaking, the death crosses on medium time frames, the fact Bitcoin has been rejected at the midline of a parallel channel it has been printing and much more, all signs are pointing bearish. ESPECIALLY considering we have the weekly close coming today only 1 week before a monthly close.
This is more typical of short squeeze rallies, rather than legitimate buyers providing support.
We could, and I fully expect to test prior resistance to confirm a reversal. What if the shorts from them have already been wiped out though? Perfect time for a strong Sunday/Monday dump.
It is of my opinion that $11.4k will likely provide significantly more resistance than $11.1k, if we can even get that far.
For Bitcoin to actually be in a bullrun, these behaviors are not typical to what price action should be showing.
Look to a re test of $11.1k, possibly $11.4k on the bullish side. A close above $11.5k would be a strong indicator that this was a bear trap. Otherwise, we are likely revisiting at minimum $9,750 for a higher low, or we COULD be in full on medium term reversal here which is what I suspect.
Bitmex is being investigated and in recent days has seen a massive outflux of capital from their exchange. BitStamp has also seen a mass INFLUX of Bitcoin.
It is of my opinion we may see a strong continuation of the bearish engulfing weekly candle from last week. Be very careful here on the next moves you make because the bulls may be lying in wait to initiate another short squeeze.
I would say a daily close below $9,500 and we will have a significant chance of creating another local low.
Bình luận:
Starting to doubt be original trend line*
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I am not well educated in EWT.
That said, I believe the correction from ATH was a 5-3-5 zig zag correction ending at $3.1k. Chances are extremely high in my opinion that the 5-3-5 correction formed an A wave and we are in the process of a B wave. I suspect we are playing out the ATH correction but in reverse. So, a 5-3-5 B wave bullish correction. That said, the major Bitstamp dump we experienced to $6,200 COULD have been the smaller B wave, which means $14k could have a very high chance of having been our long term top. Though, the narrative big money is attempting to feign is that this is a bona fide bullrun. Chances are also high that this whole upwards movement could of simply been smaller 5 subwave A wave of the larger degree correctional bullish B wave. If I am correct, next would come a B subwave ABC bearish series of the larger corrective bullish B wave. That would mean we are going to correct very violently.
I suspect this is the reason we have had so many short squeezes in such a short period of time. This would have a target between $5k and $7.5k. The CME gap has yet to be filled as well, so this is a perfect scenario for that to materialize.
All in all, I believe without a shadow d a doubt that bitcoin is about to have a very surprising and violent move downwards catching a lot of longs off guard.
The 4d chart REEKS of distribution. The candles are fugly, the MACD has flipped bear (but has 3 days to invalidate the cross) and the histogram is now showing bullish pressure has been exhausted.
Be really really careful here.
That said, I believe the correction from ATH was a 5-3-5 zig zag correction ending at $3.1k. Chances are extremely high in my opinion that the 5-3-5 correction formed an A wave and we are in the process of a B wave. I suspect we are playing out the ATH correction but in reverse. So, a 5-3-5 B wave bullish correction. That said, the major Bitstamp dump we experienced to $6,200 COULD have been the smaller B wave, which means $14k could have a very high chance of having been our long term top. Though, the narrative big money is attempting to feign is that this is a bona fide bullrun. Chances are also high that this whole upwards movement could of simply been smaller 5 subwave A wave of the larger degree correctional bullish B wave. If I am correct, next would come a B subwave ABC bearish series of the larger corrective bullish B wave. That would mean we are going to correct very violently.
I suspect this is the reason we have had so many short squeezes in such a short period of time. This would have a target between $5k and $7.5k. The CME gap has yet to be filled as well, so this is a perfect scenario for that to materialize.
All in all, I believe without a shadow d a doubt that bitcoin is about to have a very surprising and violent move downwards catching a lot of longs off guard.
The 4d chart REEKS of distribution. The candles are fugly, the MACD has flipped bear (but has 3 days to invalidate the cross) and the histogram is now showing bullish pressure has been exhausted.
Be really really careful here.
Bình luận:
Could have*
Damn my grammar.
Damn my grammar.
Bình luận:
PS- get into alts.
The R:R on them cannot at the moment be ignored.
I strongly personally suggest FUN and NANO.
This is another reason I suspect Bitcoin at least temporarily is too exhausted to to continue. For this entire rally, alts have been slaughtered on their ratios, rather than at least holding support like in 2017. Only now are they beginning to show strong signs of reversal. Coincidentally as Bitcoin is showing extremely bearish signs during possible distribution phase?
If we are about to correct violently downwards- 2+2=4. These short squeeze rallies are likely because big money does not want dumb retail money capitalizing on the drop that is soon to come.
Bitfinex alone capitulated TWICE in less than a one month period.
Do the math here folks. See you at $7k
The R:R on them cannot at the moment be ignored.
I strongly personally suggest FUN and NANO.
This is another reason I suspect Bitcoin at least temporarily is too exhausted to to continue. For this entire rally, alts have been slaughtered on their ratios, rather than at least holding support like in 2017. Only now are they beginning to show strong signs of reversal. Coincidentally as Bitcoin is showing extremely bearish signs during possible distribution phase?
If we are about to correct violently downwards- 2+2=4. These short squeeze rallies are likely because big money does not want dumb retail money capitalizing on the drop that is soon to come.
Bitfinex alone capitulated TWICE in less than a one month period.
Do the math here folks. See you at $7k
Bình luận:
This is straight fugly.
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4 MACD isn’t looking healthy.
Not is the fact that we are yet again grinding against my triangular support.
Bulls better step up here or we goin dumpy dumpy
Not is the fact that we are yet again grinding against my triangular support.
Bình luận:
Nor*
God I hate mobile.
God I hate mobile.
Bình luận:
This actually looks very plausible and is the best bull hopium I can come up with at the moment.
$10k may hold, after all.
Indeed, I do believe we have some downside on the way.
$10k may hold, after all.
The apex of this smaller triangle has been met and we are now potentially breaking support.
So far at least, this idea is valid. :)