We should see price break above the red box on chart, and eventually progress towards the 13900 zone within a couple weeks, as shown on chart. The bears are strong and have been shorting constantly at every resistance levels but they ran into very strong long term buying here, and with the state of sentiment with everyone, experts, traders, noobs, and haters all considering BTC's bull case dead, and lower prices to come, I'm inclined to be long here. The support zone that happened to hold makes me think we might have seen the lowest low we will ever see, from here onwards, and even if consolidating in a sideways bear market, we would not go lower again. Probably forming a consolidation pattern for longer until long term buyers accumulate enough for the next leg up. This might take a long time, which would be even better for the health of the long term bull market.
For inspiration I copied a few patterns from other markets, like FB and AMZN, which had similar corrections during 2015, until 2016, you can see the results below as a bonus. s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/8/8Ilxz7oy.png Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
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These are two levels where my emotions are triggered, usually a key level for price. A bit higher, I don't feel nothing...Down here, I feel the following:
This might be a support zone, and from here we should climb higher ideally.
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The 200 EMA buyers holding the market, I kinda want to see them all freak out for a solid bottom, but not sure they will. It's good that we hold this long term support, from low volume on the way up.
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8517 is resistance here, potentially. If banging against that zone and falling, maybe tomorrow's news will make the market fall a bit more before bottoming. I'd look into hedging ahead of the news, or going to cash, or, if patient and long term oriented hold, but be ready to add more after it's clear everyone capitulates.
Giao dịch đang hoạt động
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I think we finally bottomed:
Maximum capitulation today, ahead of the SEC hearing tomorrow.
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After the last update, when price retraced again to 6800 we closed longs anticipating another drop...then after finding support at $6000 we confirmed the bottom once more, and as the the SEC and CTFC hearing passed, we knew bulls had a firm grip of the action, and we could expect higher prices to come. It's clear the bottom is in, and we have been adding gradually from our positions in gold in this zone. I might reduce the crypto holdings allocation once BTC hits resistance, depending on how it acts by then.
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BTCUSD is likely to break up into a new ATH within 13 to 17 days from here if the terminal triangle signal is valid at least We need to decisively break the resistances in light red above though.
Uptrend confirmed, now we have a good dip to add, target on chart. We also can still hit a new ATH by the 23rd give or take. Let's wait and see.
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BTCUSD hit weekly resistance but buyers supported the market at the key level from yesterday's CTFC meeting If we hold up like this we might trend higher still, but we entered a dangerous area. Watching closely for sentiment and technical signals to hedge.
Major hurdle here, asian traders celebrate the new lunar year today, tomorrow we might see increase in activity from Asia, hopefully enough buying to make us clear this resistance - BTCUSD chart
The positive news came out 2.5hrs ago. Took a while to spread. Maybe it hit the bloomberg terminals 20 min ago? Cause it ain't out on major media yet. twitter.com/wholesum/status/960578807777259520
Dear Ivan, I think you should stick to the long position, i personally think it could go as low as 7400's but I'm confident it will recover.
Thank you
IvanLabrie
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@Faris.makki, yes Faris, even if going slightly lower we're close to a major bottom here. Market waits for news today, then we might be ready to go higher.
hankchef
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Agree with you sir on the long side. Thanks for the detailed analysis and bonus charts.
Moreover I think we need to form a bottom here before it goes up, since now the down trend has slowed down, we might see more tests around the support zone around 8000(+-2000). Even it's possible to break down a little bit less than 6000 and then back up. Here's my chart with harmonic pattern:
I believe BTC lacks of a short term momentum to go up any time sooner than a few weeks.
allanrcferreira
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I forgot to mention... we are very near 200 daily SMA. For those who uses Moving averages, a close under it is not a good signal for bulls.
Because we are near 127% expansion from a triangle and near 200 daily SMA, is not a good place to SHORT!!! If you want to trade BTc now (my advice - don't), better enter Long, with tight SL. Use 7.200 as SL and add at least 3x the risk in your TP.
@BRRD, Hopefully we get the trend right...there is no trend it would appear, so it is likely that the long term consolidation period started. I was debating wether the inflation adjusted chart had any merit, but it seems it doesn't. In that chart, the bull market would continue until May or June, but to me it's clear it ended in December as originally anticipated, 2 years ago. Quite fascinating, isn't it?
Should be a long period of re-accumulation for long term traders to buy on declines, and sell or hedge partially on rallies to increase the BTC stash over time. Might last until August 2019 roughly. Then we could launch into a massive long term uptrend once more.