Giá xuống

Triangle or Down?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
The 13k support line has broke and suggest that this chart will likely play out if we are no longer in a triangle pattern . Now looking to see if $12.5k breaks or bounce high. From indicators, its likely to see a bounce somewhere here between $12.8k to $12.4k just not sure to where. Probably a dead cat bounce and that would be a good short entry there on that bounce - if you want confirmation that is.

Note that there is a slight reversal potential here and the problem with triangles during correction. We are either going up on an upwards wave in that triangle to complete the B(higher) wave or we are done and am actually midway in C(higher) wave down. Triangle has ABCDE which we are done with ABC and finishing D now before starting E. But B wave only has ABC , 3 waves count before we go down in 12345 pattern. We only assume it was a triangle because it kept hugging a support line and dragging out the timeline. But frankly speaking, this is a interesting turning point where playing patterns will likely kill you. Which is why I recommend going by momentum right now, in an earlier idea where i said it was clearly going downhill. (After getting annoyed by people claiming $13.5k was bottom)

As we know more, I will update with new ideas and try to better isolate the bottom. (Bit lazy though, not sure if these ideas even helps anyone) For now, my recommendation is to watch out for the bull traps and still play short in this downwards trend. This looks like a post manipulation market to me, so I don't really see anymore bulls recuse mission. Likely going to be a sharp fall once people realize that 10k bottom is not real, so going long is suicidal here, unless you wanna hedge. Good luck and take care!
Bình luận: We are now at the inevitable bounce that I mention earlier, given how oversold it was in the 30 mins and 1 hour. Peak is probably $13.4k but that's just a rough figure. Market will stall around here until a lower high is established and we see the divergence before going down.

That's my plan at least. Disclaimer, I already short at $14.1k after closing a previous short from $13.6k.
Bình luận: Failed to break $13.2k and went down but still a little early imo. Likely will see another small short term bounce to a little below $13k before buyers finally tire out. Nonetheless, we are not in the triangle anymore.

This falling should be similar to the one on Dec 21st, so excited to see liquidation happen for the longs. If you already taken your short, grats. Remember to move stop losses down to lock in profit.
Bình luận: The 1.2k BTC that got filled at $12.5k is most likely a large short position from $15k being closed and not a legit long bottom. If its a long bottom, that wall should have pulled and reappear below $12300 instead of getting filled.

At this point I think market panic has taken over and we will see some interesting behavior like indicators hugging the bottom oversold region as we plunges downwards more.
Bình luận: I kept wondering where is the bounce because the money flow on the 30 mins is stuck on the bottom for hours. But i realize that I was reading it as a bull market. Lots of people cashing out, likely going to see weaker and weaker bounce.
Bình luận: I will be taking the night off and won't be updating this idea's progress. Take note of my wave structure for 12345, there is 1 more strong bounce off the $9.7k to $12.8k before we go down to the buy zone below.

Manage your shorts and take care!
So you reckon we are going on wave V down to below 9k?
Phản hồi
@avito1, that fall below 9k is inevitable. We already crossed a turning point that puts us in a bear market. It is just that a bear market still have some price movement upwards, thus this constant optimistic outlook of a resumption in the bull market.
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