BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
Follow up to earlier post. As stated in prior post, typically a throw over of upper channel then a close back inside leads to reversal to lower channel trendline . Not always but often enough. Thats held true here. The recent trend is down, and established a trading channel rather quickly off the highs. In early Jan the bearish trend accelerated. leading to climactic pin bar through larger lower trendline and close back inside. The final waterfall decline from last week of Jan was not sustainable and bounce at minimum was evident. The bounce has now reached resistance at 200d MA which held support briefly two weeks ago. If it can break it a rise to the smaller red channel is a given testing the breakdown area of 9500, or may just slide along MA to meet red channel top. A break of that and next target would be top of yellow channel, price target depending on angle rise. but im assuming it would also try and retest break down of 13k             as well at some point. A denial at the 950 and it would probably begin its bearish decline along yellow channel possibly. If resistance holds at MA and breaks down it could slide down channel retesting lower band of green channel or just begin the bearish decent again trapped between top of red the upper channel and lower of yellow til breaking out or down. A break down will want to retest the high volume reversal at 6k and failure of that leads to 4K area. I dont believe it will stay in red channel either way as angle is just too steep to sustain but a break of 6k and the first decline will be quick and nasty Id imagine. There will be bounce back to support and resistance creating a new trend channel.

Green bars possible bullish break out
Red bars bearish possible bearish break down. I think the breakdown would actually test the prior recent low at 6k , bounce back to retest lower channels and then break to 4k quickly.
Obviously there are lots of possibilities , these are just two generic scenarios.

Recent Long term trend is up until break and close below trendline , (lower band green channel). establishing new channel lower lows/ lower highs
Short term trend down but has just reacted off support. will remain down until break of upper trendline (yellow channel) establishing new channel with higher low/higher highs
Shorter term trend (15 min) is down

I use channels to trade trends and patterns and BO/BDs at possible pivot points . I dont assume to know where a stock or asset is going but will try to see possible scenarios and trade accordingly when the stock or asset makes its move or proves itself or reacts near support/resistance . Stops are always used diligently. The trend is intact until proven otherwise. Time frames are of utmost importance when determining trend and trade duration and direction, so act accordingly.
Bình luận: A break out from channel, expect back test for confimation. Could break out and rum for upper channel, could close back inside and continue down or could just slide down top of upper channel line until 8900 area then break. A move above 9500 would be bullish sign and one could go long there for run to upper channel and stops just below.
A close back inside channel and below 8900 and one could go short with targets of lower green channel.
Bình luận: Appears "green bar" scenario in play. Plenty of resistance in the 10000-11700 range though.
Bình luận:
Running into resistance in the 10000-11000 congestion zone, possible pause and return to rising short term trend line but I fully expect if momentum continues for it to retest upper channel 12000 plus price.

Break down or rising short term trend line and expect back test of longer term trend line from JAN peak and probable ABC correction type move with C retesting FEB low.

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