- Disruptive technology in a speculative bubble.
- Typical bubble burst crash (other charts very similar are the Dow Jones crash of 1929, or the uranium chart more recently)
- Ocean of worthless copycats coins based on blockchain technology, surfing on the hype.
- Companies shares price quadrupling in 2 days after adding blockchain to their name (kodak), same as dotcom back then.
- People going into debt, selling their houses, to buy bitcoin at the pic...
And then, chart wise se saw:
- A 50% bounce after a 70% correction (same as in nasdaq)
- Number of days between 2 tops during nasdaq crash was 161 days
- Number of days between 2 tops during Bitcoin crash was 21 days
- Ratio = 21/161 = 0.13
- Number of days between top and 70% correction in nasdaq: 378 days
- Estimated number of days between top and 70% correction in bitcoin: 0.13x378 = 49 days
- Real number of days between top and 70% correction in bitcoin:51 days ~ 49 days -> this method seems to indicate that we are following nasdaq not only for the correction scale in price, but also for the correction timing.
I expended this method to estimate, price and time wise, where the bitcoin should be in the coming days/weeks if we keep following what the nasdaq did back in 2000, and you can see the result on the graph.