luckyhelper

A lazy Sunday and Bitcoin has no direction

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
Pivot point is at 8596. Below the Pivot point , there is a bearish scenario, above a bullish one. Fluctuating around Pivot point means an undecided scenario and a sideways movement.

The price of Bitcoin             has no direction right now. Already for the whole day, it is fluctuating around support S1 level. I expect this to continue for a while. Maybe in the evening that we see a move in either direction.

I stay away from trading today.
Bình luận: The down move of BTCUSD did not reach its target at 7740. This is the first time since December 17, 2017 that a down move does not reach its target. It seems that the bear trend is losing some momentum.
The price is heading North right now towards Pivot point. The question is: Will it bounce at Pivot point or will it head towards the brown, dashed trendline and test it again?
Bình luận: BTCUSD is heading towards Point A and will be testing the brown dashed trendline again. Does the upmove have enough momentum for crossing that trendline sustainably? This would lead to a new trend, either an uptrend or a sideways movement. Beware of a possible bull trap.

However, what I expect is that BTCUSD will bounce on that trendline and thereafter lose value rapidly. The next important down targets are 6000 and 5511.
My bet is still on another leg down sooner than later after this range trading. Maybe with a bull trap over 9K. Though all technical signals are on the side of bulls. But this is not a bull market.
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venturetrade venturetrade
@venturetrade, *not a bull market dynamics i meant
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can upload or can download.
Signature: David Batagglia hahahaha
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luckyhelper RodrigoGarreton
@RodrigoGarreton, it is important to recognize such an undecided market scenario. In such a market situation, it is best to stay away from trading. The spreads may be bigger than the price swings.
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RodrigoGarreton luckyhelper
@luckyhelper, Obvious companion, not operating is also a way of operating, today is indecisive and with little volume, with a possible hchi that has no force, so most of us are simply looking, something to narrow: despite the market remains technical and it is a good sign of maturity

I leave you my graphic so that you leave me some opinion about it, and what a hunch you could have
A hug

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luckyhelper RodrigoGarreton
@RodrigoGarreton, Wow! From my point of view as an artist, I love this wonderful painting with all its colors! However, as a trader and chartist, I cannot understand this chart. Please do not take it badly. I am a beginner in using charts and a simple mind. For me, things have to simple and easy to understand. A signal has to be right in 80% of its appearances and targets must be matched, otherwise they serve for nothing. My biggest problem in trading is to keep my emotions under control and to follow strictly my plan.

I use a few techniques only when it comes to charts. I am a day-trader and I need criteria for deciding if a trade is on target or not. For me, candlestick pattern analysis, trend lines, a simple way of measuring distances and Pivot points work best. To be frank, I have to admit that I do not understand Elliott waves or Fibonacci pattern. As my results are quite good, especially when it comes to predicting targets, I will stay with my few signals I observe.

Your Pivot points are close to the ones I calculated. I only use R2 to S2 levels, while you use also R3 and S3. By the way, how do you calculate R3 and S3? What do you use the Pivot points for?

I also used the red dotted trendline when approaching that level. However, right now, it is not of importance. Therefore, I let it away until the price will approach that level again.

I think that you did a great work with this chart. You know your ideas behind the arrows and trendlines. It is also a purpose of these drawings to remind the creator of his trains of thought. I create sometimes also complicated charts while in the process of developing an opinion. However, for publishing, I strip off all the unnecessary things. For trading, the picture has be to simple and easy to understand. The plan has to have clear entry and exit points as well as criteria to exit a trade when things do not develop like expected.

I hope you like what I wrote. I am sure one of the experienced traders on this site would write a completely different review. This is my personal opinion only. You have to find out what works best for you. Everybody has his own style. May be I find other useful techniques and will add them to my repertoire in the future.

My friend, keep up the good work and enjoy Sunday.
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cryptogast33 luckyhelper
@luckyhelper, For undecided market scenario's, you can use the squeeze momentum indicator with dmi as confirmation and it's clearly showing down. Another confirmation by TK cross on the 1H where we sit in the cloud at the momentum. I expect a large dump by the end of tomorrow. Will see if it goes below 7k to make newer local lows.
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luckyhelper cryptogast33
@cryptogast33, thank you for your comment and for mentioning the two indicators. They confirm my longterm scenario.

On February 5, 2018 I published an idea about the target of the current major downtrend.

I expect that BTCUSD will find stable ground at 2403. It's a long way South.

Right now is a crucial moment. The major bearish scenario remains intact only, if BTCUSD cannot break the brown, dashed trendline. It has to stay below that trendline. It is a moment that traders have to observe closely and be prepared for the unforeseen. However, I expect that the price will bounce on the Pivot point or on the trendline.
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cryptogast33 luckyhelper
@luckyhelper, It is a crucial moment indeed. So much going on at the moment, as well as the 50 EMA 4H, the formation of H&S, the daily resistance, coming weekend close candle, etc. I don't see the needed volume to break through for the bulls. I'm patiently waiting to open up a position on either side. Thank you for your time and efforts, they're greatly appreciated.
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