In Wyckoff Analysis, four main phases occur during the trading cycle: accumulation, markup, distribution and markdown. Accumulation phase is when smart money enters on a long position, when general public is not interested. Markup phase is when parabolic movements start, driving media and public attentions, when entusiasm and FOMO make their victims. Distribution phase is when smart money start exiting lasting only newbies' money. During distribution, bulls fail to stablish new highs, a big correction may be seen, driving fear to the market, this correction is followed by a lower high. Usually where traders exit positions and public think everything is back to normal, this is called bull trap. The Markdown phase is when ansiety, fear and pain make general public close positions with huge losses.
maybe big BTC investors thinks that 6000$ was good price to buy, but i dont believe that BTC can fall under 5555.55$. There will be crash-line, and long long term of depression.
UnknownUnicorn288635
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@GeorgeVeritas, how long do you think this depression will last?
GeorgeVeritas
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@G.grunewald, if go under 5k$, few month. Its not about how much BTC cost, its about what now people feel about BTC. November-December every one jump in it, people really shopping for BTC, just remember COINbase report, 100k every day new registration. who was that people, USA worker. Another exchanges also dont have deficit of new users. Amateur people in to market on HIGH, and expect new HIGH, but world not educated about it. how many cases of fraud , and other manipulations, that show people are dont have clue how to buy-storage and sale coins. So, thousands of people around world take money and buy, most, BTC in range from 12 to 19k$. when price reduce from 19 to 10k$, we hear about normal corrections, and no panic, HODL. what next, price went down, and i do believe that fear eat people and they start throw away BTC and other coins, and curse that they when they listen neighbor, that he bought new car buy buy/sale BTC. so in "capitulation" 11,6 to 6K$ people give away cheap BTC. big holder didnt sale, they do add buying. TWITTER, FACEBOOK, other social media have authority persons who speak loud about crypto, most of them can buy and tell them what you need. so idea, that this panic around crypto which made by different country government, regulation, banning , tax pay, and etc, + mass media post = panic which is beneficial for certain group of investors, traders, millioners and billioners. this market very easy to manipulate, inside deals, and most easy to put some idea in people head. because dont have established authority regulator, which voice will be the last and powerfully. so long we hear from TV that BTC is Bubble, and stay away, and CNBC come up with tutorial how to make account in Poloneix exchange and buy Ripple. They push people to bring over 400Billions$ to crypto market in. 1 Dec to Jan 8 +420 billions in total. of course big investors put big piece of cash, BUT. so now have a lot of people holding coins, in hope that everything will back. But also many people sold in fear of crash. hope you understand what i mean.
UnknownUnicorn288635
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@GeorgeVeritas, sure. totally agreed with almost everything you said. but i think it can last few months even if it don't reach the 5k mark. like you said, the fear is huge theses days after the markdown...
GeorgeVeritas
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@G.grunewald, true. even i dont know buy or not, when to buy, or even why i should come in it again... Greed destroyed dream of people. I alway close position early, around -10-15% i dont make over. that after i see how price go over my TP, and than i see how much i can make more, BUT, this market is huge volatility, today your portfolio 100k$ , tomorrow morning 10k$. Lets see how will be next few month. i back to stock market, at least there have regulator, financial report, true value of paper, and more information about who stay behind this company. Who in charge of BTC- some incognito guy Satochi Nagomoto - W*T*F* is that, how much he own BTC. More and more Exchanges fraud and SCAM, D-dos attack and shitttyy ICO with future unvalued coins. This game become fully gambling. i do think ETH can dominate easy in next few years,. People also think wrong about BLOCKCHAIN, they understand that BTC is blockchain, so if BTC bad- blockchain bad too. We need 3-5 years to educate about it,. Lets say Belarusian president sign decree for blockchain education, for crypto investment in country. Belarus can become offshore zone for it. Russia also going to make big accepting for crypto business and blockchain researching. Thailand would teach people how to buy and sale crypto , to avoid fraud and not let populations give away money to criminal. Have more positive about it.
monguilhot
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well... what do you think... next months in "accumulation"?
UnknownUnicorn288635
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@monguilhot, probably. In this last "bubble", accumulation phase last approximately 230 days. During this phase, BTC price increased approximately 700%. Not bad IMO...