Bitcoin has recently broken it's upward trendline on the daily chart.
I will now be looking for it to hit the lower trendline before moving back up at least momentarily. It could possibly drop below that as well.
Possible head and shoulders pattern completing as well but it's a bit messy so I won't be relying basing my decision on that but it is interesting that if you were to draw the neckline of the H&S at the lowest close above the trendline the likely drop based on that would put it right at the lower trendline. Something to watch...
What do you guys think BTC will do?
Bình luận
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It took a little while but just as I suspected, price has reached the lower trendline. I'll be watching how price reacts at this level to see if there is a sign of reversal or if price will continue to drop.
I operate at Binance, I sold at $ 12,655.95, and now it's already at 14K, what do you recommend? Wait or buy again?
Jabest
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@ViniciusBr, I'll preface this comment by saying that I'm not a financial advisor and this is not a signal. This is just my view of what I'm waiting for.
For starters, you should view some of my replies below because they'll show you exactly what I'm waiting for and what I expect to see in the short-term but in general I'm expecting a drop to the 8k-9k area at this point. I trade price action and as you'll see below, price is telling me it's highly likely to move further downwards right now. Hope that helps.
You are looking in the internet and asking people weather you should buy or wait? You need to just buy and hold, you do not have the experience to play the market. you are going to end up blowing your account in no time.
Buy and hold for a few years.
airatru
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a few major exchanges are closing down new accounts registration, because they can't keep up with the demand, surely bitcoin will "drop much further" =))
Jabest
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@airatru, Like I said in my response to scousertommy below, I agree it's going up long-term. Just when it will start to make it's move back up is still up for question in my mind. At this point, it appears to be moving down for the short-term. I trade price action and I'll get back in when I see a price showing upward movement again but right now that's not the case. I'm more focused on XRP right now as far as upward movement goes. Got in at about 20 cents. :)
scousertommy
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does it look a bit bullish looking to break out of the triangle ?
Jabest
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@scousertommy, I see where you're coming from but I don't view it that way.
There were 3 perfect touches on the trendline and then price jumped up like crazy.
After coming back down to the trendline there was a ton of reaction around it and it's finally closed below it on the daily.
Half of the time when a trendline or s/r get's broken in this way, price comes back to re-test it so right now I'm fairly confident that it's the start of a bearish move (at least short-term) but I will be looking for a re-test of the trendline and a bearish candle pattern at that point.
When I trade price action there are 4 things I look for (and how reliable these entry points are):
1. Break of the Trendline or Support/Resistance (candle closes above/below it depending on the situation of course) - Fairly reliable
2. Re-test of Support/Resistance - Reliable
3. Reversal pattern during re-test - Very Reliable
4. Close below the low of the breakout - Extremely Reliable
These would be things I would be looking for to confirm a short here and will also be what I look for to enter a long because I won't be shorting BTC. Not my style when it's this volatile and I think it's going up long-term.
Jack1212
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@Jabest, sir I m very new to this, a week old, I have account set and some money ready to invest, can you tell me where can I get basics of it as u r saying some of terms like candle and re-test r new to me, how much bitcoin fall shall I expect before I start buying some alt coins. Thanks
Jabest
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@Jack1212, If you really want to invest and start to understand what I'm saying, I would recommend checking out babypips.com They have a "school" there that's free that'll help you understand some of the basics of trading. It's focused on Forex but you'll get a good base understanding because I'm a forex trader and I apply the same technique to Cryptos and it works.
To answer a couple of your questions though:
1. Each of those bars you see on the chart is a candle. On a daily chart each candle represents the movement of price in one day, on a 1 hour chart each candle represents 1 hour, etc. Blue candles are upward movement and red candles are down. If a candle finishes blue, the bottom of the solid part of the candle represents where price started for that candle and the top of the solid part is where price ended for that candle. The skinny lines at the tops and bottom are called "wicks" and they show where price moved during that candle so you get a whole picture of the movement of price for the duration of that candle.
2. Re-test is referring to price breaking the trendlines and coming back to touch that same trendline again before it continues it's movement in the direction of the break.
Price action trading is very simple and accurate but most people get it wrong because they don't know where/how to draw their trendlines and support/resistance lines or zones.
If I had a bit of advice for you at this point, it would be to trade very small amounts of money until you know what you're doing. Trading real money instead of demoing helps you get used to the mental side of trading which I would argue is the most difficult. Learn price action trading and avoid indicators because they lag.
I don't have a ton of free time right now but if you'll put in some time to babypips and learning on your own, you can feel free to look me up on Facebook and ask some questions when you need help understanding some concepts. You can look me up under Jason Best and I think I have the same profile picture there as I do here so it should be easy to find me.