There has been much conversation about shorts being at all time high. This is only part of the puzzle as longs are also slmost at their highest.
Based on the above chart my interpretation is
13k Longs are out of the money with a price range between roughly 14k down to current prices 19k Long Majority are in the money prices between $0 and current Prices
the 13k longs which are out of the money Prly have stops below the swing low.
32k Shorts are in the money of which: 7.6k of them from 13.5k to 9.5k 14.7k of them from 9.5k to 7.1k 9.6k of them 7.1k to 6.8k
The remaining 9k shorts are out of the money between 20k and current prices. The shorts increased parabolically between 13.5k and 9.5k but the majority are in the money, with risk increasing towards current prices.
Therefore - there are around 9k shorts in the money which are at risk above 7.1k there are 13.2k longs already underwater at risk below 6k.
Forecast.. likelyhoold of extreme volatility to both the up and downside is imminent. Quite possibly in that order.
Good luck
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A push above $9,500 will begin a cascade of short liquidation and likely pump use to $11,500.
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On average, remaining BTC longs are underwater and failed to capitulate down in the 6ks. Profit was taken on the longs down there meaning that they can still come back into play. Bullish as F.
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Update to show the above occured:
BTC shorters were called right as we broke $9500 as expected. Profits were taken by the longs so we lost steam at $9,800. There is no bear div on the 4hour and still lots of short fuel remaining their stops at at 10k... go get!
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In my humble opinion, this is why this BTC market isnt going anywhere in a hurry: Longs are deep in profit Shorts are deep in profit Longs wont be taking profit anything like the shorts will if the move is favourable and those who took profits on their longs will likely rebuy.
Nice work. It's great to see a more thorough analysis, rather than just calling for ATH shorts...
filbfilb
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@crimsonr, Thanks. Agree, thats why i did it.. :)
Commodore3
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Best TA I've seen in a while. Now I know how those big players keep dealing with us. They have people who can do this kind of in-depth analysis
filbfilb
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@Commodore3, Thanks for the feedback! :) I made this post due to getting frustrated with alot of misinterpretation that ive seen.
IkemenJ
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@filbfilb It does look like there are about 32K longs vs 23K shorts at the moment. If the same % of each got bored and started pulling their money to elsewhere it would be advantage bears I guess.
FOMOSAPIEN1
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Where can I learn more about this type of analysis and figuring out price points?
filbfilb
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@erikjanssen, gotta be honest and say i just worked it out for myself so im really not sure.
pepper_nax
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This is the most useful analysis on the site! Thx filbfilb!