BTC-Gold Fractal still playing out nicely!

The BTCUSD and XAUUSD fractal is still looking freakishly similar! I've compared the BTCUSD 2 hour chart with the XAUUSD 1 day. The patterns thus far have been strikingly similar but are playing out over both longer and smaller time frames. If you look at the 4 boxes I've marked for illustration of the similarities, you'll see that 3 of the 4 on the BTCUSD chart are taking longer to complete comparatively than XAUUSD . Only the second box is smaller.

If the chart for BTCUSD continues to follow the XAUUSD fractal, I anticipate relatively low price volatility between 6500 and 7200 for the next week or two and then a HUGE leap up to $9K-$10K levels. This would be awesome, and for all you BTC bulls out there, I know you would love it too.

Remember, if you try to match every single small candlestick pattern in a fractal, it's not always going to work out on a micro-level, but fractals are about identifying a macro-view of a similar behavioral pattern between two things. You first must identify the similar chart patterns, and then you must ask the question: why are the two exhibiting similar patterns?

I believe in the BTC and Gold case, that people are beginning to think of them in the same way--a store of value. This has high correlation to confidence in the US Dollar and stock markets. Now that we are starting to see a loss of confidence in both the market and dollar--deficit building, inflation rising and talk of trade wars--I think the sentiment is changing back in favor of store of value places like Gold and Silver. That is why I believe there is great validity in the potential for this fractal to continue to play out as people begin to perceive a new digital gold in BTC.

Thanks for reading and please give me a like and a follow if you enjoy my ideas!

-Dark Horse

Bình luận:

I don't want to get too detailed on timelines and price predictions purely based on this fractal, as markets move in unpredictable ways. Don't get me wrong, I love this fractal, but even if this fractal turns out to be Gold, it could take a deviated path. But let's do this for fun.

After doing some further comparative analysis on measured moves between BTC and Gold, I found that on average, BTC moves are 2.3x Gold moves in this fractal. So if we assume BTC continues to follow Gold closely and forms the cup shape that Gold forms next and continues to move 2.3x the moves of Gold, BTC would reach as low as $5,800 (double bottom), the HUGE leap would be to ~$9,000, and the peak that you see on Gold for July would be around $10,000 for BTC.

Timewise, again assuming that BTC moves step by step with BTC, comparative analysis would put BTC at $9,000 April 9-12 and $10,000 April 25-28.

Take these time and price targets with a grain of salt, as it is purely based off of BTC following the exact path of Gold with comparative analysis of the fractal shown in my chart. I don't pretend to be a crystal ball. I just thought I'd have some fun and tell you guys the result of my comparative analysis.

Bình luận:

Everything still appears to be on track. BTC is following my blue line, and just like I predicted, moving with low volatility between 6500 and 7200. I still expect a big bullish move up in the coming week. Everyone is calling BTC dead or 3-4K levels and shorts are at an ATH. This to me says the sentiment is beginning its reverse slowly, right under everyone's nose. Chart indicators are all bearish. Let's see what happens.

I will post a new idea tonight/tomorrow on some of the potential bullish sentiment and TA indicators I am looking at.