It's been quite an eventful couple of weeks since our top at 9900, I personally did not expect a retracement past $8500, but alas the market doesn't behave to any individuals expectations.
With that out of the way I do feel we are at a critical juncture.
Key Notes:
1) In my opinion, BTC has been in a classic Wyckoff logic accumulation pattern, the bears have been losing steam and dips have been consistently bought up, it's clear that if VWAP holds at the $7600 range we will continue upwards movement. 2) There is a large range that the market can currently retace upwards to, anywhere from the 0.5 of the latest bearish swing, potentially up all the way up to the 0.5 of the last leg down (8490) 3) The next week to month long move will be determined after we retrace, if, for example we make it to $8100, and we retrace and we get a higher low at lets say $7550, I feel it's safe to open long term longs (week-month intermediate scale) 4) We're currently in the process of breaking the MACD triangle that we've been wedged into on the 4 hour chart for over 5 months, if you observe the MACD crossings on my chart, you can see we've been consistently following this trend and it's getting tigher and tighter, a decisive move should be expected within the next couple of days.
Let me by crystal clear, the short term play is up, but the long term play is to see where our retracement lands after this up, and that is what will determine whether or not to open intermediate longs.
Bullish targets: (Outcome likely)
1) T1 7793 (0.5 of last bear leg down) 2) T2 8016 (.65 of last bear leg down) 3) T3 8490 (0.5 of overall bearish swing from the top @ 9900)
Bearish targets: (Outcome less likely)
1) If we break down from here, it will be a free fall until $7100-7250, and we will most likely test the lows of $6900 and below that everyone has been calling for.
Timeline:
I anticipate a range bound market for the remainder of the weekend, ($7550-$7670) with a potential move happening in the asian session open @ 6pm EST tomorrow, with a run-up possibly beginning before.
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Bình luận
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Good afternoon traders,
I have a wedding to run to but wanted to give a quick update. We had a runup over night and I was lucky enough to sell and buy back in, as we currently see we're around the golden pocket at the .65
Bear Key Notes:
1) Bears need to push this down very soon if they want this run to stop.
Bull Key Notes:
1) If your a bull, this is most likely the local low, and we will begin the run up shortly, to at the very least, retest the T1.
Best of luck trading in the next few hours, and as always, trade safe!
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Good morning traders,
Our move up yesterday came just short of T1, and as we can see we've come tumbling back down. This area is very important for the bulls to hold, and if they can continue to hold 7550 zone, then we're still on track for another run, albeit slower than anticipated.
If this zone breaks down, then we will go back towards 7250-7350
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The .65 is still holding, but not by much. If it fails it will be time to exit longs and go short
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Run is under way, bullish run underway if 7800 breaks, expect 8-8400 if so, if not, another rejection at 7800 and this won't hold below again
Bình luận
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We rejected again, we crashed, not surprisingly, however we're seeing signs of life, I've entered long here, 4H divergence and shorts are ridiculously high, look for move to $6900-7200
Bình luận
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Stopped out, look for bounce @ 6004 or its into the 5's, keep in mind that divergences are being created as we speak, this will most likely be the last impulse down
@ant187 Where'd ya go? Still have the twitch account?
Forkmaster
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We made today a new lower low since April 1st and the shorts are also lower (Don't expect another squeeze atm). It is the worst spot and just gambling to enter a position. Good luck anyway, time to unfollow such a irresponsibility.
ant187
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@Forkmaster, We did indeed make a new low, however we're also at a high probability reversal zone. We had bullish divergence on the 4hr (it's coming and going) which is a swing trade opportunity at a support level. Ironically, something similar (a squeeze) happened on the same day your referencing. If the 4 hour closes with divergence, it IS the time to go long until 6900-7200. If it does not, then we will have an opportunity to go lower, sorry you disagree and good luck!
Forkmaster
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@ant187, Sure, there is a chance for a short-term bottom/reversal just tell your folower this is high speculative. The R/R here is in long favor but you know what? Everybody is expecting the same play like in april. Stay safe.
ant187
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@Forkmaster, Trading is about odds, everyone anticipates $5900 or lower, and I've found what the herd expects, hardly ever happens, when you have bullish signals at reversal zones you trade them, do they always work out? Of course not. But that's trading, all you can do is play the odds.
FritzWagner
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I belive, it would rush up faster!
atoj
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Hi there.
Any opinion about bitcoin price after reach 8.8k ( top of the trendline ) as is expected?
Thank you
ant187
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@atoj, Hello, while it's certainly possible this impulse reaches above $8800, I do not believe it will make it that far without first retracing. Once we see where the retrace lands we can begin to formulate a long term (week-month intermediate) plan.