I could wait until the end of May to publish this but I still felt it was worth updating. I felt it was worth updating since the daily chart can't seem to get going despite a very bullish daily pattern revealing accumulation. The monthly downtrend is very weak because it hasn't reached the downside targets and there is no follow through or range expansion on the downside even after a major bounce from 150 to 297 (a nearly 100% advance in 2 months).
Note how I added the many months that BTCUSD spent going sideways after a major up-move. I highlighted these two areas in GREEN polygons. I would add another polygon because each month since December has been "inside" the range of December. So, all moves in Bitcoin seem to take many months to digest before another move happens.
As for the downtrend on the monthly chart, the first of 9-month distribution zones expires at the end of May. The decline is unimpressive because the price hasn't fallen to 90 or to 66 yet, although 150 was a decent decline. When you get into large %-changes on charts, it doesn't take much to make a major shift in your target.
Keep in mind: At the end of June, if there is no new low below 150, then a new uptrend will be starting but only if the price is above the mode, which will mean we need to be ABOVE a monthly high of one of the months since December.
Tim 237.35 last BTCUSD 5/14/2015
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BitcoinGuru
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Tim, my chart published yesterday agrees with your June timing. I also agree with your end of June expiration for the beartrend.
ChartArt
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It's too early to call this repeating pattern. I agree that is highly possible, but first the price has to finally leave the current uptrend wave and fall below $230 and then also drop below $198, which hasn't happened, yet. So far we only peaked on the positive momentum which started in April 2015.
Next week starts the first Bitcoin Exchange Traded Note (ETN). I would not be surprised if the last super fast dump was pure manipulation to accumulate more BTC for a lower price.
"Prospectus approved by the Swedish FSA (Finansinspektionen).
The exchange traded note will be listed May 18th on Nasdaq Nordic in Stockholm."
Hi Tim, I would love an update on this forecast. Seems like your condition has been met, right? You wrote: "Keep in mind: At the end of June, if there is no new low below 150, then a new uptrend will be starting but only if the price is above the mode, which will mean we need to be ABOVE a monthly high of one of the months since December. "
If so, what is are the key levels and timeframes?
MFB
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I am waiting to see how the monthly close looks tomorrow. The resolution of the monthly bars is low, but Bitstamp's monthly high in May was $247. If price holds above this mode, Time at Mode Methodology suggests a rally up to the $400-$550 range by the end or the year is possible. The one week chart is just breaking above a 19-20 week mode as well.
UnknownUnicorn77963
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I pointed out this exact demand zone a while ago. Well done.