DON'T GET FOOLED BY TALKS OF A HEAD AND SHOULDERS! It CAN happen but wouldn't that be a little ... too easy?
Just something I noticed, the RSI on the 30m has been coiling, there have been attempts to break out of this resistance which resulted in powerful short-term rallies. If Bitcoin can break above the resistance in the RSI, we may see a seriously powerful relief rally. Bitcoin has respected a 6H RSI channel that I've been watching, and you can see that below.
Over a time period of roughly 16 hours now, Bitcoin has phenominally held above key support, the 7.2k range. Take a look at these bear trap wicks:
Notice the 1h RSI respecting this resistance trend line in the RSI:
I am long from 7k. I am aiming for a $7,600 re-test but possibly higher depending on the force of this breakout if it materializes. Watch for the 30 minute RSI to break out of the red resistance line, then re-test for support. If the trendline holds support, long it HARD but keep to your risk management.
Fair warning, this trendline creates powerful resistance, if it fails yet again on this attempt I could see the HS activating. If there's a fakeout, look to 7k and $7,200 for support. Past that, we're going to no-mans land. GL
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Fair warning, Bitcoin may drop to the bottom of the 6h RSI channel- which is where I'll be looking to add substantially to my position. I have a feeling I'm not the only one hoping for this. Best of luck
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Good lawd.
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Bitmex so far is showing a breakout, and now there should be a re-test for support. Considering what the price action shows, this could end up sending Bitcoin violently down to the bottom of the 6h channel. Beware.
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Do or die time.
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Anddddd that's the bear trap. LUL
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Can she?
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Welp. It ain't easy bein cheesy. Just took double my original investment out and now it's time to let 'er ride. Enjoy the show. :D
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Beware of the white zones. If this is just a correctional ABC impulse upwards, this rally could end very violently, very quickly. Make sure you have stops well above your entry because if we get denied this is gonna come down HARD.
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VERY key moment here for BTC The .786 of 'the dump' from recently sits at $7,955. If there is ANYWHERE that is going to confirm a reversal on this very powerful rally, it's here. HAVE STOPS
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$7,967.* I took profit from that. A LOT of profit. Let's see what happens from here, it doesn't look like Bitcoin is done yet.
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$7,854 is short-term support. It is the 1.618 of this current move, which indicates it could of been the end of a 3rd wave. From here, I would say that if $7,854 fails as support, the next zones of support would be the .236 and .382 retracements for this wave which lie around $7,800 and $7,686. A break below that and be ready for a sizeable dump. If we have a push above the .786 bear retracement at $7,967 then look to $8,169 and $8,444 as final targets. See you next update, cause I have a feeling I may be on for a while. lol
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This *might* be a *very* sizeable breakout. Take a look at the 15m RSI. I wasn't zoomed out all the way when I made all the arrows. Notice anything? I stopped putting more arrows, because ... not one time. Not once in this entire screen, since the 25th of last month has the 15m RSI been bullishly rejected from falling below overbought.
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We are also finding support firmly on the middle of my 6h channel after bouncing off the bottom of it as seen here:
This could be a very big breakout if momentum holds. $7,967 is key.
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I will be updating this later, but look out above. 10k here we [likely] come. I believe we experienced an ABC corrective retracement "C" wave upward, which took us to 5k. If that holds true, that means an impulse started on the heels of that pump. The second wave for that impulse would be the dump we experienced on Bistamp. Exactly why it happened so fast. If that is indeed true it means we are potentially starting a third wave impulse upwards, which should take us to roughly 10k. Alt season would commence when we come down from that 3rd wave, until Bitcoin is ready to make it's way to the 5th and final wave, or 14k. This is true bull hopium at its best, but we could, in theory, see a 14K BTC within the next few months. Sorry about the different chart styles, I have multiple charts for various purposes.
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IF this doesn't turn out to just simply be a "B" wave correction from a larger impulse, then what was stated above is very possible. It all depends on if we hold $7,967, if we can break above our swing high of $8,400, and if this isn't a trap.
If the larger corrective ABC series completed in Bitcoin on April 2nd, we will see at minimum 10k. 14K will be the ultimate pain to make people FOMO right as Bitcoin finalizes it's last lower high before capitulating.
May the force be with us.
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If we're lucky. Really lucky.
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Daily is fighting for overbought. We're consolidating against the .786 bear retracement. We just had a 10% dildo in about 4-6 hours. If this thing ends up moving upwards again, there is going to be some serious FOMO. Be really careful people, this is extreme resistance.
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Be careful around $8,300. Watch very carefully to how price reacts to this region if we get that high. If indeed what we are seeing is a bullish ABC retracement from the stamp dump, $8,300 is where it stops, maximum in my eyes. That would cause a lower high and be a signal to bears. If $8,300 is the height of this rally, the rejection will be VIOLENT so make sure you have stops.
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Pt. 2? PS- based on the height of the flagpole, if we aren't in just a corrective impulse upwards, then this technically has a target of around $8,600.
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4th attempt at resistance- does it break?
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HI MOM
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That moment when the parabola is still intact.. This will have some serious consequences. Beware.
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Finally, a sizeable rejection. We have completed an ABC retracement from the stamp dump with that recent high, though it Technically, this means a new upward or downward impulse is ready.
Support can be found between $7,868 and $7,965 although I would prefer $7,965 to hold as it is the .786 bear retracement from the entire stamp dump.
On Bitmex, the 15m RSI is fighting at the moment to stay above a key support trendline.
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Man what a candle.
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Can't avoid ALL the stop hunts, sigh. Oh well. Made a FAT chunk of profit from this move. Hope someone else did too ;D
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"If we have a push above the .786 bear retracement at $7,967 then look to $8,169 and $8,444 as final targets." As my Grandpa use to say; "Not bad for a hairlip!" Proud of this one.
Hope everyone has a great day, it's time for me to NAP. -teh Salesman
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Open this chart, then hit play. Pull down on the chart so you can see price movement. There's a red resistance line at $7,785 that may be flipping to support. This is kind of a big deal. If $7,785 holds as support, the only next real logical resistance becomes $8,420/$8,700/$8,900/9.2k. If we can surpass that we're looking at 10k/12K and possibly even as high as 14k. Best of luck, I gotta wait for a better entry now :(
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Inb4 a dump to 5.6k/6k to shake out new longs lmao.. Majorly entertaining this idea right here..
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Andddddd not minutes after I posted this.... Could be the start of an epic C wave correction, we will see. Best of luck out there everyone. Catch you on the next dildo
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Had a funny feeling the weekly close would produce some nice downside if only temporarily. What a scalp this would of been, my God
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“Swim with the whales, or get eaten by them.” “Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered.”
Two golden rules of trading.
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Attempted to post this unreleased idea shown here:
On a new AlanMaster idea shown here:
And this was the result. Notice I also included a picture of the recent comments I have made. In one comment I was discussing this potentially happening with Giorgio, and the other comment I'd discussed this potentially happening on an idea of London55555. So, where is this 'moderation' need coming from exactly? Did I break the rules any time recently? What did I do to deserve my comments on other peoples ideas to be censored? This along with the fact that my 'The Satoshi Signal Appears.' idea being completely hidden from anyone but my follower base is a strong indicator someone is trying to shut me up. imgur.com/a/YFUxIZI
I find it incredibly interesting that for some reason I cannot post immediate comments to peoples profiles anymore.When I go on to Alan's idea about Bitcoin people are freely posting comments, so am I the only one with this problem?
Also, notice the front page and how it's mainly bullish? Yeah..
Hey man! So good to see you back at it :) Great call! I also didn't trust this to break down, the reason being that Bitcoin has now reclaimed its long term uptrend channel.
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@VictorCobra, I am most definitely going to have to take a look at this later. Thanks my dude!!
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Hahaha, I love the first sentence, i also noticed a lot of H&S charts getting pulled out of their sleeves. Not understanding, that such a big H&S has like 10/20% chance of succeeding. We had one at the 7600/8400, expecting a second to 5200, is a bit too much indeed. You know i am not an indicator guy, but what you saw with indicators, i saw with the wedge shape of btc and the curved bottom at 7200ish. Well done and keep it up, you got my like :)
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@botje11, Everyone just picks a bias and then comes up with why it’ll happen. Meanwhile I analyze everything that’s in front of me. When I saw that wedge starting to solidify I knew we had a trade on our hands lol.
Thanks for stopping by man. I love your work. The king of BTC front page =p
Hope you have a good one man. I got stopped out and I think I’m gonna wait a bit for reentry. Might miss out on a big move upwards but it is what it is. Gotta pick my battles ..
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@MC_Peewee, Yes, most people are biased indeed, it's not easy not to be, but as TA guys we need to do our very best NOT be biased, at least for our followers. Otherwise we get that crap like (don't need to say any names i think). Don't even want to know how much money they let people loose just to become popular.
Anyway, do not worry about being stopped out, the past 2 weeks or so (since the 6300 push up), have been very difficult and insane. As you might know, i had my plan ready for 6500ish prices, so that rally got me completely off guard. I had a few moments, but i simply could not make predictions with a lot of confidence. What pisses me off when looking at others who give that impression and let people loose so much money.
I like and liked your honesty from 6/9 months ago as well, i liked this post also, so you got my like. It's the first one i have given in a year almost :).
Also, very good that you show patience, rather sit this out than gamble, sign of a mature trader. Trust me, this is extremely important. I have seen many loose a lot of money past 2 weeks, trying to fight the moves up and down.
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@botje11, I have a funny feeling I know who you’re talking about, lmao. Trade active? Haha.
I take this very seriously as I have a 50 person telegram group, I can only imagine the pressure you must feel! You’re the king of BTCUSD, no doubt about that. I feel honored just to have you stop by let alone get a like from you :)
So yeah, when I get it wrong I take it very personally because I try to imagine how I would feel if I was someone from my telegram who followed my call and then lost money.
Sucks when as an analyst we get a gut feeling but it ends up being wrong.
That’s one thing I really like about your analysis, you typically don’t go for gut feelings rather than facts. I suppose that’s part of what makes you so liked though :)
I’m not sure which post you’re referencing when you say 6/9, but I do try to be as honest as I can be in my ideas. I’m not afraid to be wrong, as many analysts are. But damn first like you’ve given in a year? Haha damn I cant even tell you what that does for my confidence.
Just trying to learn from my past mistakes is all, something I learned a long time ago but never truly understood until now is that sometimes the best position is no position at all. This was one of my highest profiting trades of all time so definitely don’t wanna go giving it all back RIGHT away hahaha.
Thanks so much for stopping by man. This was a great start to my day.
Hahaha, yeah it's one obvious person but it's actually a few.
Thank you for the compliment, i hope i have deserved that title past 18 months :). It does give pressure for sure. I started TG in June 2018, before i started it things were different. Because i did not really think about people following my calls. Until you see it through TG how many people directly follow you and with the amount of $ as well from some of the vips. It's something different and something we need to learn as well.
I am also very critical about myself, even though i get it more right than wrong, it can still be a weight. But with the years it's easier to accept it's part of the game. As long as we make profit end of the month/year it's good.
I actually do make a lot of gut feeling calls, actually many of the big calls i made in 2018, were gut feeling. However, my gut feeling is like big summary of all the TA tools i use and a bit of fundamentals as well and logical/strategic thinking (like a chess game with the whales). This usually goes for the big highs and lows. The moves in between are more just TA. I think a big reason to why i stand out from most in 2018, i have no personal attachment with crypto at all. I have no long term positions whatsoever. So for me it doesn't matter if we are at 3K or 50K, better said, i don't care if i miss the rally to 50k, because then i will simply try to trade as soon as a setup comes to me again instead of trying to find one.
With 6/9 months ago, i saw you commenting in my comment section several times and showing your opinion. I usually read everyone and i remember in general as well what has been said.
Trust me, it's the most valuable thing you have: learning from your mistakes. I have put the most time and energy in that, looking back at all the bad trades/analysis i have done. It's a long road but it eventually helps with preventing bad trades and sometimes getting more winners as well.
One advice, something i try to explain to my people as well sometimes. We can do many day trades every week, but those are just for small wins and losses. Main focus has to be, catching those few big wins in a year. So i always try a small size when i see a big low or high coming, after real confirmation i start to increase. So they can fail several times at the start, but if you eventually catch a good one, it can cover maybe 20/40 small loosing trades.
Your very welcome, i like people who are honest and humble, same as i am. I would try to be that as well, even though it upsets me sometimes to see how the Hollywood stars get much more likes/views/followers sometimes, but think it's just for amusement. I have always been honest here on TV and it got me where i am now. I have always been a firm believer that hard and honest work will get you where you want to be.
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@botje11, You more than deserve that title Botje :) You are one of the very few voices in this space that has such a reputation and always tries to remain objective. Very refreshing indeed :)
I wish I had more patience in Crypto, a lot of times I end up in a trade just to be in a trade. I don't wait for the perfect times because I still have that thinking of 'it will continue' ya know? Perfect example, I saw us falling hard from that rally the other day and I shorted, but with high leverage...Only to switch back to long because there was a bounce.
Lo and behold, down it went, and that would of been a great trade. Ended up liquidated instead because I use poor risk management and too high of leverage. I wish like you I could say I don't have an emotional tie to Crypto, but I do have that tie because I feel like eventually Crypto may help me change the world. Just not yet I guess.
I actually went back and read everything I'd posted on your ideas and damn, I got it wrong a lot lol. But then...something changed. I don't know what, but something changed and my suspicions started to become very accurate. Weird how that works..
I should follow your advice and take a look at all my past ideas, after looking back on just the comments I'd left on yours...damn there is a lot to be learned. Especially when it comes to catching the big moves. If instead of always trying to long on Bitmex I'd just held everything I'd purchased, I'd be sitting quite nice right now. Almost caught the absolute bottom too.
Damn me and my emotions lol. Thanks a lot for the advice though.
I try to be humble, but still struggling with a cocky attitude that I've been trying to change. Add depression, bi-polar, and mania to that and you have a crappy combination :\
It pisses me off as well that you get so few likes in comparison to the people shouting bullrun all the time. It is amazing how these people keep a follower base when they are consistently shouting the same thing. That's what definitely makes you stand apart. I really hope you don't give up on us, cause there's a lot of people myself included that need you and love what you do. Hope you stay a while man. :)
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@MC_Peewee, Thank you, appreciate that :). Patience is very important in this game. Being in a trade just to be in it, is the gambling part where i think more than 90% struggles with. You will start to see/feel/learn, that when you sometimes just let the market for what it is, you will be much more relaxed and you will have less stress which helps making good decisions.
That is typical chasing the market, having a few but not ready tol pull the trigger, then seeing it go without you and then starting to chase it getting pushed out when a bounce happens. Using too much leverage is just a matter of time until you go broke. You will make big wins sometimes, but you will get addicted to big wins so you will blow the account someday. Most important thing we can do is learn from our mistakes. It's the only way to get more mature in trading.
That is an important part as well, i know most beginner traders miss out on the big moves. So one has to look back and find out WHY and try to learn from that as well. A good compromise is simply taking partial profits and holding on to a part of the pos, even if it's like 20%. Just to get the feel for it.
I am still here and will be here for a while. Website is almost done, if that works out i will be here a long time
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@botje11, I've definitely learned that I need to focus more on high probability setups than just trading to trade. I only did that because I wanted to learn as much as I could in a short time span. Needless to say, I've learned quite a bit from quite a few losses. Had some seriously nice profits too. I just wasn't able to hold on to them because like you said, I chase the big moves with too much leverage. I've blown my account out many times now, thankfully with not too high of capital though.
Thanks for all the advice man. I wish you the best of luck with your site. :-)