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After Much Thought, Looks Like Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
Providing a copy of the chart AGAIN below because Trading View's platform will likely scrunch up the chart; preventing the way it should be depicted.



FIB coordinates are 0 = $2.22 and 100 = $19,666

Here's an image of Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1: https://i.imgur.com/nOJl0Dd.png

Do NOT assume we will fall into months of bear trend in Phase E as depicted on the image of Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1 above. Even Wyckoff himself said we do not have to fall into Phase E if the laws of Supply and Demand determine we should skip it and fall into another Phase A of a new schematic.

You're welcome to scroll down in this link to find "Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1" to find additional notes about phases and events: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

Books by Wyckoff can be found here. However, make sure to scroll down till you see the name, Richard Wyckoff. MANY other books on trading can be found here as well. Excellent source of trading material FREE online: http://www.traders-software.com/Trading%20Books/

An excellent video to start with on teachings for Wyckoff by David H. Weis can be found here: "David Weis on Wyckoff, Support/Resistance , and Waves" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzISUr1itWg&amp=&ytbChannel=BigMikeTrading

I honestly do not see us blowing through $20k into astronomical highs this particular spring upward. That will not begin until mid to late September or early October where we blast to new ATH             in the $50K to $70K range in my opinion.

I've been up all night trying to determine what schematic the Composite Group is using/planing. I believe I've found it and simply wanted to share it. This particular plan "I BELIEVE" they have in play will take course over the rest of this year. I will share what my indicators are saying every now and then. Especially, if I see something of significance. I will be VERY busy this weekend until next weekend with a power upgrade from 225 Amps to 400 Amps here at my house and remodeling the mining room.

My current TA implies a LONG position up to the $20K to $23K range. Which is where I believe we're going until end of May/early June where we will consolidate until end of September/early October where we begin our trek upside to a REAL moon shot around $50K to $70K by end of 2018. Political and geopolitical events could change the timing and price points as events play out. Stay tuned...

DISCLAIMER: This post is simply an "IDEA" and I'm by no means responsible for any trades made based on my TA.

Happy Trading!
Bình luận: The 4-Day TF once again but WITH indicators at the bottom. Got to get some sleep now. Later...

Bình luận: If my analysis is correct on this being a large Distribution Schematic #1, the price points could "possibly" play out as follows:

These "possible" future price points were determined with FIB's beginning with:
1.) The one up to the top of the "UT" @ $22,533.92
2.) Then down from $22,533.92 to the 0.5 FIB RT @ $13,588.39
3.) Slightly recover back up to the 0.23 FIB @ $18,311.63
4.) Then back down further to the 0.618 FIB @ $11,477.25

Bình luận: The REASON for the two yellow blocks inside the Phoenix 1.393 indicator is to point out how EASY it would be to go up to $20K in a short period of time. Look at the price action above the smaller yellow box from history and compare that to how much time remains in the larger yellow box to get to a similar or higher price target.

Bình luận: Take note of ALL YELLOW BOXES in past and present. That means looking at boxes in the top and lower indicators below the chart. The run up in the past BEGAN on Saturday, November 25. It's possible we begin a run up here between now (Thursday) and Saturday.

Bình luận: The "INITIAL" reason for this publication was to point out which Wyckoff Schematic I believe is unfolding/playing out. I also provided indicators in the 4-Day TF to show "support" for this analysis.

A couple of years ago I created several publications on Loaded Gun Theory (LGT); which is somewhat similar to Elliot Wave but not quite. A pattern was noticed in LGT to provide an APPROXIMATE price target for 1.618 FIB and 0.618 FIB RT on the 4-Day TF for MAJOR Wyckoff "Sprint/Up Thrust" and "Consolidation" events. That pattern for LGT revealed 2-Guns Down for 0.618 FIB RT for bottom of Consolidation events and 3-Guns Down for 1.618 FIB to Peak of Spring/Up Thrust events.

I also found if we have an Up Thrust event of more than 4 times increase in price from previous bottom to new ATH, the "2-Guns Down" rule does not apply for 0.618 FIB RT for bottom of Consolidation Event after new ATH is established. Which means we will NOT have our usual 40 to 50 percent drop from ATH to 0.618 FIB RT. The drop will actually be much more significant after being significantly over-bought.

I spent some time to use the Loaded Gun Theory to provide an "approximate" price target to peak of MAJOR Up Thrust events and the bottom of MAJOR consolidation events from till the end of 2018. Keep in mind these numbers are NOT exact and are only used to get a general idea of what approximate price point(s) we're looking for on those MAJOR events.

This first chart is to provide an over all picture with few details discernible.


This next chart shows more detail of the "3-Guns Down" to determine an APPROXIMATE price point of where we're heading this current trip up for this Wyckoff Up Thrust Event in Phase B of the Schematic.


This next chart shows more detail of the "2-Guns Down" to determine an APPROXIMATE price point of where we're heading down from the NEXT peak at $17,226.15 to the 0.618 FIB RT at the bottom of the consolidation event.


One more chart to show the next 1.618 FIB to the peak of the next Up Thrust event to occur approximately September 1, 2018. This should be enough for you to get an idea of what I was doing.



If you are the curious type and wondering WHERE I came up with the DATES for the peaks and the bottoms of each remaining event, then have a look at this chart from last year. NOTE the dates at the bottom of the chart underneath the vertical time lines:
Bình luận: For those looking for more "SUPPORT" for my 2-Guns Down for 0.618 FIB RT and 3-Guns Down for 1.618 FIB at peak of Up Thrust, here is a publication on those rules I established in "Loaded Guns Theory" (LGT).

LGT is still a work in progress and requires at least another year to five years in it's development because I need more HISTORY to be created for confirmation and possible development of more rules.

Bình luận: MANY have sat and watched while we continually go up. They were caught unaware.

We had our decisive tests of remaining supply. Now, “smart money” operators have decided it's to be marked up. The previous drives down has establish a "mental" thought of a continued repetition of the same move. In reality, this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers, or bears. In Wyckoff's method, a successful test of supply represented by a spring (or a shakeout) provides a high-probability trading opportunity. A low-volume spring (or a low-volume test of a shakeout) indicates we are likely ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position.

The appearance of an SOS shortly after a spring or shakeout validates this analysis quite easily. However, in Accumulation Schematic #2, the testing of supply can occur higher up in the TR WITHOUT a spring or shakeout; when this occurs, the identification of a change in trend can be hard to identify without also using proper indicators.
Bình luận: Here is a copy of a response in comments section of another publication to someone who follows me:

I cannot remember if I told you or not but you ought to go to "indicators" and add "Godmode 3.1 Mod with LSMA - LTCUSD" to your charts. It's a lot like my Phoenix 1.393 on my charts. Also in indicators, type in "Stochastic RSI" and add that to your arsenal. I would do this for each chart you have. If you have questions, post your chart with comments or questions in one of my ideas and I or a knowledgeable follower will provide an answer to your question. You may have to be patient at times because I might be sleeping.

I remember when I first became a member on Trading View years ago. I did not know ANYTHING about trading. I especially, didn't know anything about creating charts and using all the features on the charts. I still don't know how to use all the features yet. Mainly because I have not found a need to learn all of them yet.

Post ideas with your charts as you get more comfortable with creating charts and using indicators. Be open to constructive criticism and welcome others to post their charts and comments in an effort to encourage growth in trading knowledge and to possibly come to a consensus on the idea you posted.

Be defiant against haters and put them in their place. Especially, if such haters don't even take the time themselves to learn or have the balls to expose themselves to the public out of fear of being wrong, criticized or laughed. Simply keep your heart and mind focused on the knowledge and experience you KNOW you will gain over time as long as you continue to put forth effort to learn and share.

WE LEARN BEST BY DOING. So, as NIKE says, "Just Do It."
Bình luận: After talking with @hkh222 in the comments section of the following publication, I had an epiphany and shared it with hkh.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/oancIWus-Bitcoins-Big-Bears-Shakeout-Part-2-solving-the-puzzle-again/#tc1541716/?utm_source=notification_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=notification_mention

I wanted to be sure to share it here with those who navigate to this publication as well. Here it is:

I had a look at the 4-Day, 7-Day, 14-Day and 1-Month charts at current location and your 2014 time frame. They do look similar - in regards to my indicators. Then, I had an epiphany. If we go to $11 or $12 thousand and turn back down, this COULD be a sign of an Automatic Rally in Phase B of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. What would confirm it as being a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic would depend on how far we dropped. If we dropped to only about $5,400 to $5,500 on LOW VOLUME (Just below the trading range), that would be an EXCELLENT SIGNAL we are in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic instead of a Distribution Schematic as I posted in my most recent publication. If we continue down much further than $5,400, that would be a signal we were in a Distribution Schematic Phase E from the previous ATH of $19,666. Which means we would be looking for the bottom of a selling climax to begin an Accumulation Schematic.

If we continue higher than $12,000 and go on up to $15,00 or higher, this will be a STRONG signal we were in an Up Thrust EVENT of Phase B in a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic. Which is what I've posted in my publication.

Bottom line, it all depends on how high we go up between now and June 1st.
Bình luận: Here's a chart to provide a VISUAL PICTURE of what I intended to convey in my previous post.

Here is an image of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 which is what I made in the chart you see below: https://i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png

Here's an image of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2: https://i.imgur.com/vJDN6um.png

Bình luận: My bad, I forgot to add the Abbreviation Definitions:

Don't believe all the waves are there.... upcoming fall


Phản hồi
If you look at the 50A, this reversal matches that of 2014. after 45% drop in 50MA. In short, this might be a bull trap similar to the one in 2014. My latest update in this idea shows the measurements

Phản hồi
Why is the name "Godmode 3.1 Mod with LSMA - LTCUSD", should it be used for Litecoin only?
Phản hồi
@hkh222, It can be used with ANYTHING (Stocks, commodities, futures, crypto, anything....)
Phản hồi
@hkh222, I provided more information about it and a publication on HOW to use it in the ETCUSD publication.
Phản hồi
This was a very interested read. Hats off to you for the hard work sir
Phản hồi
ProwdClown MikeLeChat
@MikeLeChat, Thanks for the kind words.

Cheers Mate.

David
+1 Phản hồi
@ProwdClown
Thank you!!
I did not understand half of what you say but it sounds profound...
Phản hồi
@aviv8008,

Sure, you're welcome.

In case you were wondering, TR = Trading Range; SOS = Sign of Strength. Those acronyms with their definitions is in a text bubble in most of my charts.
Phản hồi
@aviv8008,

When I said, "We had our decisive tests of remaining supply," The "supply" I'm referring to are those who wish to unload their "supply" of BTC to take profits for whatever reason. We had three (3) big test of supply on the way down to the bottom. Each time, that supply overcame demand. Also, each time the supply unloaded, the volume started out high but lower and lower volume was evident with each dump. Especially, the last dump we had.
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