sumastardon

BTCUSD: Bitcoin Monday Morning Feeling

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
Bitcoin Monday Morning Feeling
Bitcoin finally gave up the weekend rally with a little double
top at 8399 before falling away overnight to a low at 8005 at
06:00 gmt/01:00est
A break below 8000 was needed to trigger the next short from
here.
Since then it's made a little counter-rally but looks vulnerable
again once it fails and the small rising dynamic underpinning
the rally today gives way. Should fall back to 8000 when this
gives way and once 7962 gives way should begin to pick up
downside momentum. A short when 8070 breaks with stop
above 8115 and add or more aggressive short once 7950 gives
way with stops 70 or so higher when broken.
But until we see the little rising dynamic broken below Bitcoin
will attempt to push higher in nearterm and cannot be
shorted yet.



Bình luận: Bitcoin Bitfinex Feed
So far we have no red candle worth mentioning. It's not happening so far and looks lazy still. Lower stop to 8080 for 11 loss if wrong from here.
Bình luận: Bitcoin Bitfinex Feed
So far we have no red candle worth mentioning. It's not happening so far and looks lazy still. Lower stop to 8080 for 11 loss if wrong from here.


Bitcoin Coinbase Update
Beginning to form a lazy down-trend underneath the falling dynamic. Still vulnerable whilst below this line but not especially so by look of chart. But whilst below this line it's more likely to slow rinse back to 8050-8043 range and then after another bounce from here, back to 8005 and then 7975 and 7940.
Once 7940 breaks it should start to pick up some more speed back to 7804-7760 range with next support below here at 7584-7555 range.
To escape downward pressure Bitcoin has to push higher above the 8150 line on Coinbase and then break above 8180 and hold that 8150 line on the retest from above to beat back the bears and trigger a long with stops below 8150 if we see this happen later.
Until it can break above the falling dynamic though, Bitcoin is still vulnerable


Bitfinex Chart Update


Bitstamp Chart Update
Bình luận: Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart Update

Spikes above and below price on 15 minute chart show the indecision on both sides of the argument here.
Spike low at 8016, some 3 points above the line. Likely to grind a just little higher but still vulnerable under the falling dynamic (as above)



Coinbase Chart Update


Bitstamp Chart Update
Bình luận: 14:05gmt 09:05est Update
Bitcoin Coinbase Chart update
The downtrend has picked up speed a little quicker than anticipated and has created a low here at 7925 which is 15 lower than anticipated too. But it's still weak overall and liable to fall away again later if there's any rally in the very near term up to 14:30gmt/9:30est
Can rally to 7974-8015 range and maybe spike to 8043 at best before it falls away again. Continue to short rallies for now rather than looking to buy dips again for a while - at least until that falling dynamic is beaten and held above on retest from here.


For Bitcoin updates in real time please see link top left, main page
Bình luận: Bitcoin Bitstamp Chart Update 14:58gmt 09:58est

This short is not going well at this point - there's a lower parallel now halting the downtrend and it can potentially rally higher to 8002 line and to 8058 line at most, where the fixed and dynamics meet.

Can drive short stop as low as 7986 and if struck look to short again from the upper parallel of the pattern later.

It is putting up a fight here off that newly forming lower parallel and if stopped out won't get much more than 100 points higher from here at best before it most likely comes off again.

Otherwise the alternative is to leave stops above the upper parallel and run it


Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart Update


Coinbase Chart Update


Bitcoin Futures Chart Update


Bitcoin Futures Bigger Picture


Bitcoin Update Bitstamp Chart 21:11gmt 16:11est
It was meant to come off from 8058 here at highest - which it has done so far. But it's holding mysteriously - drive stop lower to 8021 at highest and to within 25 of price at lowest - it should fall away now towards 7789-7755 range - and then on a break below 7750 to 7562 and potentially much lower still. Stay short for now
Upside - it has to break above the 8058 -8065 range here to trigger any hope of a long to 8237


Bitcoin Coinbase Chart Update


Bitfinex Chart Update


* For Bitcoin updates in real-time please see link at top-left, main page
Bình luận: Bitcoin Bitfinex Update
Next Trade Points from Here
The short was stopped out at 8021 highest for small 35 or so points profit overnight before Bitcoin fell away again, this time making a small continuation pattern on the final descent before bouncing again.
The last 24 hours of price action has created a series of competing smaller parallels within larger parallels and making trading conditions confusing for everyone except the bots at this point.
If you spotted the continuation pattern forming in the early morning and were around to trade the eventual break out of it at just above the 8010 mark your patience has been rewarded. Bad timing for the rest of us though...
Since the break higher Bitcoin is consolidating below 8185 on Bitfinex feed. and in no position to trade again just yet.
A break above 8200 is needed to follow long from here, aiming for 8450 with stops 50 or so lower when triggered.
Right now Bitcoin is trying to form a little bull flag/pennant formation shown on the chart here. Has to break below the parallel directly under price now to fall away to 8046-8010 range where it should bounce once more and can be bought again with stops below the lowest rising parallel shown on chart.



Bitcoin Bitstamp Chart Update


Coinbase Chart Update
Bình luận: Bitcoin Bitfinex feed Update 14:39gmt 09:39est
The low since the break lower is 8024 here in the nmiddle of the buy range at 8046-8010 - either close out here at 8100 for smallish profit or raise stop to just under 8075 - the spike it's left under price is impressive so far - but a little weird somehow.


*for updates in real-time please see link at top-left of main page
Bình luận: This is going tear higher by look of it...look to buy dips back to 8100 with stops below 8050



OK. Am hallucinating by looking at wrong chart now. Am closing out flat around 8100 - this Bitfinex chart sucks



Coinbase Update
This sucks too in near term...but that pattern...it is trying hard here to break above the upper parallel. It can defy the bears here still. They have to force it below 8053-8050 level from here to trigger the next short now.
And on the other side, the bulls have to force it over the big parallel above it here to trigger a little stampede back to 8169-8180 range initially and then, once the last bears are beaten back from here, back up to 8395-8400 on Coinbase and potentially much higher still once this level can be broken above and held.
It should come off. But it's Bitcoin and it does what it wants. We can wait and follow - whichever way it flips from here
Bình luận: Bitcoin Coinbase
Spooky buying at 8080 - just keeps getting picked up - at a pretty strange spot to be doing it - if still long here (the stop placed below 8075 has not been hit yet though it's been tested multiple times in the interim) can stay long considering downside stop risk is 25 from here - but it has to find more buyers now to hold it above the upper parallel and then hope fto create a mini stampede of bear covering up to 8160-8169 range - but so far this looks bot driven and no humans are trusting it right now. Understandable considering the conflicts.
From there a break above 8200 is needed to add or follow long again, aiming for 8450 with stops 50 or so lower when triggered.

Until then it's dull/neutral with a break below 8050 needed to turn negative/short again

Bình luận: Coinbase Update
Finally we have a decisive break lower which should have triggered a short on the fall below the 8060-8050 range - now dropping stop to 7910.
Should fall to 7800-7760 range and attempt to bounce - but then fall further still later to 7584.



Bitstamp Update


Bitfinex Update
Bình luận: ...oinbase Update
This sucks too in near term...but that pattern...it is trying hard here to break above the upper parallel. It can defy the bears here still. They have to force it below 8053-8050 level from here to trigger the next short now.
And on the other side, the bulls have to force it over the big parallel above it here to trigger a stampede back to 8169-8180 range initially and then, once the last bears are beaten back from here, back up to 8395-8400 on Coinbase and potentially much highher still once this level can be broken above and held.
It should come off. But it's Bitcoin and it does what it wants. We can wait and follow - whichever way it flips from here


Bitcoin Coinbase
Spooky buying at 8080 - just keeps getting picked up - at a pretty strange spot to be doing it - if still long here (the stop placed below 8075 has not been hit yet though it's been tested multiple times in the interim) can stay long considering downside stop risk is 25 from here - but it has to find more buyers now to hold it above the upper parallel and then hope fto create a mini stampede of bear covering up to 8160-8169 range - but so far this looks bot driven and no humans are trusting it right now. Understandable considering the conflicts.
From there a break above 8200 is needed to add or follow long again, aiming for 8450 with stops 50 or so lower when triggered.

Until then it's dull/neutral with a break below 8050 needed to turn negative/short again



Bitcoin Update

Finally we have a break which should have triggered a short on the fall below the 8060-8050 range - dropping stop to 7910.
Should fall to 7800-7760 range and attempt to bounce - but then fall further still later to 7584.



Bitstamp Update


Bitfinex Update


Bitcoin Bitfinex Update
This feed came closest to touching its support line with a low at 7823, some 5 points away from the next support line.
It's makinga weak looking continuation pattern prior to falling away again a little later. Can be shorted again once it falls below the lower parallel of the pattern with stops above teh same line when broken.


Bitcoin Bitstamp Chart
This one reached a low so far at 7806 , 8 or so points above the target line - can short again when the little dynamic under price gives way again with stops above the same line when broken. Please see above for further details of breaks from here - running out of time...


Coinbase Chart Update
Typical. this one was furthest out witha low at 7822, way above the 7804 line.
It's so damn annoying that whenever the prettiest one is chosen it always ends up ugliest by the end of the day. One day one price.



If these updates have been helpful please hit the agree button. If not, don't. Deal ?



Updates today - for real-time updates please see top-left of main page
Bình luận: Bitcoin Bitfinex Update
Not a good call overnight. Bitcoin double bottomed just above the 7818 line with a spike the second time around and held up through the night before bursting higher at 07:30 gmt/02:30est - but the break higher wasn't set up - sorry for that oversight.
Instead of breaking lower Bitcoin has defied the bears once more and ralied to underside of the resistance zone at 8180 which it spent so much of yesterday testing and ultimately being rejected from.
So Bitcoin is effectively back to square 1, at he same price point it was printing 24 hours ago and facing the same problems again too. A groundhog day so far.
The rally has helped to shift Bitcoin into neutral again from outright bearish and gives Bitcoin bulls a fighting chance from here but whilst unable to regain and hold above 8080 line on Bitfinex the bears in this fight are not going to raise a white flag any time soon.
Bitcoin has to break above 8180 and sustain it to break bear hold and to trigger the next long shot up to 8400-8456 range.
For day traders there's a little dynamic holding back price from this morning's high which has to be broken above at 8110 to trigger a 50 to 70 push back up to 8160-8180 range. Can close out in this range and use any profits on stops for next trade if and when 8080 is broken above.

But in very near term until 8110 can be taken back and held by the bulls Bitcoin is still vulnerable to selling pressure with the 8070 support line now quite important to the near term from from here. It has to break below here to end near term neutality and to force it back lower still to 7960-7955. Worth a short if triggered.
But there is no aggressive short on offer right now. It has to break below 7800 for that to happen in which case we can short again back to 7600-7595 range.
So overall neutral to mildly bearish right now - and back to waiting for the next trade to trigger from here.
For now we need to be patient, to wait and not get tired by waiting. Yet again.



Bitcoin Coinbase Chart Update


Bitcoin Bitstamp Chart Update
Bình luận: Typo in above text:
The rally has helped to shift Bitcoin into neutral again from outright bearish and gives Bitcoin bulls a fighting chance from here but whilst unable to regain and hold above 8180 line on Bitfinex the bears in this fight are not going to raise a white flag any time soon.

8180 line, and NOT 8080 as in original text

Bitcoin Chart Update
Bitfinex


Bitfinex Closer


Bitcoin Coinbase Chart


Bitstamp Chart Update
The continuation pattern here is still shaping up so smaller parallels are shifting as it develops. So far it's a potential flag but to stay looking positive from here has to break above the 8113 level on Bitstamp and hold to trigger a long with stops below 8100 - and then needs a volume burst from there to beat 8160-8180 (as above)
Until we see that break higher Bitcoin is still neutral/mildly bearish


Bitcoin Futures Chart 5% in 5 minutes
That 5 minute near 5% bear squeeze looks most powerful in the futures chart which took price much higher than on any of the exchanges we follow, shooting right to the old resistance line at 8230 after a high here at 8235.
On this chart it needs a break above 8230-5 line to trigger next long to 8446 .
And on downside it requires a break below 8090 here to trigger a short back to 8050 initially and then after a small bounce another 100+ point short back to 7950- 7878 range.
Until then Bitcoin is still near term neutral/mildly bearish

This is very helpful for me too. I have my eyes on the altcoins most of the time, but because of your detailed analysis, I stand a better chance at timing when to get in/out.
Phản hồi
Awesome work as always @sumastardon succinct, detailed, and professional. Keep it up mate
+5 Phản hồi
A pleasure as always to read your work!
+5 Phản hồi
@byi_786, Well not always, for sure. But it's amazing how motivating a few short words can be sometimes. Thanks for that.
+3 Phản hồi
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