hkh222

A half-baked theory about crypto manipulation

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
I am fairly new to this market. I have been trying to figure out how some are manipulating this market. This is what I understand so far.

Phase 1: "They" buy BTC             with fiat (aka: accumulation).
Phase 2: buy alts with BTC             (aka: pump).
Phase 3: sell alts to buy back BTC             . This leads to distribution of alts without significant drop in their price, since BTC             price will go up at a fairly slow and steady pace due to buyback.
Phase 4: sell BTC             for fiat. At this phase alts price crash at a much higher speed than BTC             , providing opportunity for accumulation.
- repeat phase 1 to 4

I have marked each phase on the chart. Black is BTC             and blue is Ripple.

I think these phases can appear in different time frames. Sort of like fractals.

What do you think about this theory?


FYI: I am a researcher and I am not easy to convince without evidence.I don't believe in 99% of popular conspiracy theories. However, I am extremely skeptical about Crypto market. I am a techie so I had a positive bias toward Crypto technology. As soon as I got into this market, I completely changed my mind about the usefulness of these currencies. Perhaps, the notorious tether is the most useful currency in terms of utility, which can be seen in its relatively high "transaction volume"/"market cap" ratio. Or anything like Tether e.g. MKR . Some privacy-oriented coins are also good for, you know ... . The rest of these coins are there for gamblers like me or whales/cartels/market makers like Spoofy.
Bình luận: For those of you who haven't seen spoofing, this image is a screen shot from Bitfinex order book that shows spoofing. https://thoren22.imgur.com/all/
There were countless number of such actions on April 8th with order amounts above 5k which disappeared immediately.
Bình luận: this is the correct image address: https://imgur.com/lrA3ynP
Bình luận: Note that Bitcoin is making higher highs while Ripple is making lower highs. This perfectly fits my description of phase 3. In a smaller time frame, we have, probably, just entered phase 4 (ABC correction). Expect alts to lose values at a much higher rate than Bitcoin. It may take just a day or 2.

Bình luận: In a larger time frame, phase 3 has begun. Time for the king to rule.
Bình luận: Put your tinfoil hat on before reading.

This picture shows the breakout moment. Usually, alts appreciate in value when BTC goes up. What you see in this picture is that they went down right at the breakout moment. What I can infer from this is that the alts and Bitcoin operators are the same people or they work in coordination. This signals the start of phase 3 which could last a few days. I don't have all the pieces of the puzzle yet but I hope to figure it out with your help.

Bình luận: larger image

Bình luận: Another tinfoil update.

I have been following top TA's in TV for the last two months. With the exception of @botje11, most of them were wrong at critical moments. Right before 11.7K crash, they were shouting for the moon and calling for sub 6k when BTC failed to break the support 3 times. These people rarely offer alternative scenarios. They usually speak with strong conviction and some speak like oracles. They admit they were wrong when it is too late. Then they make couple of good predictions with poor risk-reward ratio. At this point, you trust them back until market reaches another reversal point and they make another major wrong prediction. This just smells fishy for me. If you are new to TV, I suggest you to go through previous TAs of people you are following and if they made wrong calls at these critical points (or at any point), unfollow them. They have probably confused you a lot already. My skeptic mind tells me that these people are connected to the operators. I do not suspect those who have bearish or bullish conviction, rather, those who flip flop at critical reversal moments.
Bình luận: Confidence level: 2%
I did not have time to do a thorough research on correlations between longs, shorts and prices actions yet. I will publish an idea about it when I do my homework hopefully next week.
In my yesterday's update in a different idea, I gestimated how far up we would go if the log trendline breaks. It turned out to be very accurate (I am "certain" that it was just a coincidence). Based on the same gestimation method, I want to give you a sneak peak of my next tinfoil level 100 idea. The below 2h chart shows shorts, longs and BTC price in Bitfinex. We had couple of short squeezes recently which caused the shorts to go down quite a lot. The big squeeze on April 12 was accompanied by a lot of long covering (~12%), most of which probably belongs to those who were organizing the short squeeze. After this breakout and yesterday's breakout, we don't see longs going up. This, IMHO, is not a good sign. It shows that professional traders do not trust this market yet. Unlike retail FOMO you are feeling around you, FOMO/greed has not kicked in yet for the pros. However, fear is doing its job, manifested in shorts going down. In conclusion, this market is not a bull market yet. It is going up by retail money and short squeeze. Another reason that supports this idea is that we don’t see healthy corrections. The operators know that if the market corrects by e.g. 38%, there won’t be enough buyers to take the price back up to resume short-squeezing. Lack of proper pullbacks also increases the FOMO effect on retail buyers.
So how far can they keep doing this? my gestimation is that, if all the shorts close on Bitfinex (extremely unlikely), Bitcoin can gain maximum 1500 points. I think the operators will try to change the market sentiment as much as they can this way. When they are done with their squeeze, they’ll weigh the situation. If big money doesn’t flow in by then, bear market will resume but at a much slower rate. Why? Wait for it until next week.
Let me know what you think about this tinfoil theory.

Please like if you like. That will encourage me to do my homework for the next idea.

Also, don’t forget to read my status.



This is a possible bullish scenario if operators succeed in their mission. By @Rainman2

Bình luận: This could be another example of phase 3;

Bình luận: On Aptil 21st, I posted something about top TAs fooling people. It's happening again and it is just disgusting. I hope you didn't take losses following their advice. I just hate when some people are using this platform to drain the pockets of inexperienced traders. There is a simple rule for trade, don't buy the top and don't sell the bottom. If you missed a good entry, control your FOMO and wait for a pullback. Now, those aforementioned TAs are shouting moon moon. Not trying to spread FUD here. Stay alert, this whole rally can be a giant bull trap. Targets could be as high as 10.2k, 11.2k, 11.6k, or 13kish. Above that, it can possibly go to the moon or Mars and it will be a legit bull rally.
Bình luận: A clarification: This theory is totally half-baked and needs more work. Do not assume it is correct before it is tested. Also, do not forget that this theory can work on different time frames like fractals.

The below chart has some food for thought. I am assuming that we are in a similar place as we were on Feb 18. If we dropped significantly, this assumption would be invalid. Still, the idea has some merit. The fact that April rally is about alts not Bitcoin.

Everything is around USD exits, BTC pump, USD coins are pumped too but slower(from all USD exits 1-2 coins are pumped much more than BTC), they are pumped in waves.. from 8100to 8300 example is pumped btc+xrp, from 8300to 8500 is pumped btc+eth and so on. Once BTC reach his "top" they buy USD coins with btc and start real pump in USD, BTC stall near top till all USD coins are pumped, then waiting for orders some time and dump.
Rest of alts in BTC exist basically doesn't matter they will fall instantly when BTC start to dump, lose in value vs btc and also vs usd.
Market sentiment play another role , if a coin is loved by masses usually that is pumped more .. and create more bagholders.
Basically everything is made by exchanges or someone close to exchanges.
Important role is played now by margins... (with help of their friends from some twitter muppets, TV, websites+media they start campaigns to pump or dump) they start printing bad news or good news.. people started to open shorts near 6k because hell yes everyone scream 2k btc.. today we see this effect. Once every idiot will change their chart to moon guess what will happen...?
I have most entire scenario in my mind how is played.. i cannot prove till bitfinex will be hacked or closed by authorities.
+1 Phản hồi
hkh222 blacksea00
@blacksea00, thanks for your comment. I am still trying to digest it :) Could you elaborate a bit more clearly. Thanks
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@hkh222, http://weis2017.econinfosec.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/05/WEIS_2017_paper_21.pdf this method is used now again to drive price up/down,, but now is called USDT. This was revealed after Mt.Gox was closed. I will try to make another reply with better explanation since my main language is not English and maybe i am not so easy to understand.
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hkh222 blacksea00
@blacksea00, thanks for the link.
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I AGREE WITH YOU 100 PERCENT ON TOP taS BEING INVOLVED WITH OPERATORS
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hkh222 yshashmi37
@yshashmi37, these guys confused me a lot. I am just fed up. How could a newbie like me do better than them. it's just not right.
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It's a very interesting theory. Even if it were true, however, we'll still be following a very specific pattern, one that we've played out many times before. Main reason, the market still needs to grow in order to survive, and ain't no way the powers that be are killing this cash cow.
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hkh222 Rainman2
@Rainman2,
I think we are in a different phase than that of 2017. If you look at the weekly chart's MACD, the market is bearish now, while in 2017 it was bullish. We might be somewhere like May 2014 or July-August 2013. @monkia has a very good analysis of different scenarios.
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@hkh222, he doesn't really provide a chart for the 20k+ scenerio. Here's mine if you're interested, it's a play on the Big W, or the 3 Peaks and Domed House Pattern:

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p@hkh222, oops wrong picture :)
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