As many of you already know that BTCUSD has broken out of it's short term trendline. Generally this is an amazing signal for reversal, however, I am not convinced yet.
False breakouts are one of the oldest tricks in the books. Market Makers use these to trick small fish into creating impulse positions, driving the price up or down and the volume up. The Market Makers, aka Whales, use this volume to their advantage, eventually driving the price in the opposite direction.
My reasoning:
Directly above the broken trendline is the .5 fib level which we are currently struggling to break through. This level, along with the .618 are very common areas to bounce off of to continue the current trend. Breaking past the .786 would be a very bullish move for BTC and is something that is still very possible.
Not only are their major fib levels to watch out for, it appears that we are currently completing the 5th impulse wave. Meaning downward movement is likely to follow. Generally, based on BTC's history, the 5th wave is often the largest impulse wave; which means there is still a chance for BTC move higher. So the golden V marked above (also the .618) is a potential place for BTC to continue its downward movement.
IF you look at the RSI, that line is acting like a brick wall. BTC has failed to push through it on multiple occasions, and large downward movements have followed immediately
Summary: I'm not here to crush all of your BTC dreams. There is still a solid chance BTC will push through all these levels and we could see an ATH in the future. However, based on my TA knowledge, I do not believe the odds are not in its favor. I am not posting this saying whether to go long or short. This is more of a caution for all traders. That this break is not a guaranteed moon. Market Makers are a real thing, and they have more skills and tricks that any of us could imagine.
I wish you all the best of luck.
DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
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This is an area to be cautious in.
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The break upwards out of the wedge is a very bullish signal. which means we are likely in an upward channel instead. However, there remains very strong divergence on the 4h which has me hesitating to place a long. Not only that, we still remain in the limbo zone, which means a sudden swing could happen in either direction. Trade with caution.
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As you can see with the lack of upward momentum, BTC appears to be weakening. I am currently short, but i reconmend waiting for a clean break/close in the channel before entering. Target would be the .5 fib level. The possibility of this swinging up still remains.
I read several traders' posts.
You belong to a group of very few traders which are very careful on what and how you say something, and unsentimental, both very important traits.
Keep up the good work and thank you for your posts.
You help many people out there.
NemoTrader
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everyone so bullish right now mnakes me want to become a bear
TomAndrulis
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Do you think that the whales are waiting for some kind news to make the move? It has been flat for a couple of days. Seems like a century in the crypto world. :-)
I don't agree much with your last opinion. Looking at the 4h chart I see the RSI just at 60 and the MACD signal significantly above so I believe that it is taking a small consolidation before another push towards 4500 or even 4600 in the next hours. From there it will probably do another small correction within the channel until it resumes again to go to 4700 which could be a big significant resistence.
I agree with you that we are in wave 5 but I see the top at around 6-7k before we start a "long term" correction.
djkirbynz
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Looks and sounds plausible, bud. Keep up the fine work.
monguilhot
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Hi friend, please answer my newbier question... When we are in a downgrade moviment, its a good idea to take profit before, in other words, sell. What you do in this case? hold your BTC on wallet, sell to another ALTCoin like USDT or sell for fiat in some place? we appreciate you answer...
You belong to a group of very few traders which are very careful on what and how you say something, and unsentimental, both very important traits.
Keep up the good work and thank you for your posts.
You help many people out there.