BTCUSD update: Higher low in progress just above the minor support area of 12483 to 12139 as bearish price momentum continues to maintain control. Now is the time to watch carefully for a swing trade long entry.
As I wrote about in my previous report, there is an infrequent broader reversal structure in play. The subsequent resistance level has been taken out (13520) and the next step is to evaluate the following retrace for a swing trade long entry. The market is following the scenario so far, and presenting the anticipated higher low. Now the question is: when to enter the swing trade long?
The answer is in how the current candle closes. If it closes on it's lows, then there is no reason to enter if you are waiting for momentum to be in your favor. Buying when momentum is going your way minimizes pain and randomness from the setup over time.
I am waiting for a break of the high of a pin bar or inside bar to occur which would be around 13300 at the moment. That would trigger a swing trade long with a stop around 12100 and a target of 16200 which is around 3:1 reward/risk. This swing trade would be separate from the position trade that I entered into the other day that has no stop or target (explain in that report). It would be especially notable if these candle stick formations appear within the 12483 to 12139 minor support zone which is the .618 area relevant to the recent bullish swing.
Waiting for the close of the candle helps to minimize premature entries which often lead to losses. At the moment, price can still continue lower and even retest the 11600 lows. IF that happens, I would be looking for reversals to add to my position trade as well. Prejudging a candle before it closes is a bad habit because you are assuming it is going to close in a way that may not happen (this is especially common on larger time frames). Patience pays especially in preventing potential losses.
In summary, not a whole lot has changed in terms of technical formations. The biggest lesson you can take away from a situation like this is that markets stabilize at tops and bottoms over time. It is a process, NOT an event. People who got sucked into buying this market too early, and too big are now at the mercy of the market. Not a good position to be in, but this behavior that payed off two weeks ago is the same behavior that is going to wipe out the inexperienced and impulsive eventually. In my opinion, it is better to miss out than to win and give it all back because when you lose, you lose more than capital, you lose confidence which is a magnitude of loss that cannot be measured in dollars. Slow and consistent requires knowledge and a strong self awareness. That is was trading is really all about, not charts, oscillators and news. Improve your success rate by first identifying and eliminating ineffective behaviors and becoming more aligned with your risk tolerance. It will help you separate yourself from the herd mentality.
Just want you to know, Marc. There are people here who really appreciate what you are doing. Sharing your precious experience, your ideas, your patience in explaining again and again the basic and the most important trading principles. THANK YOU SO MUCH!
DrJLT
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We've had a lower high -> this much we know. In this analysis your suggest a "higher low is forming" -> but we don't know where this low will end up. I still believe we're in a downtrend (per my chart, but I'm not spamming your post here).
I think people should realize that channels can be both upward and downward. There's basically no momentum in yesterday's small bull run, and it's quite likely that in a couple of days we'll see <12k.
The "double bottom" or "triple bottom" talk is premature because to have a H&S the neckline will be touched several times, and to break this line isn't always a one-time thing.
BTC is valued so high only because the miners have invested too much in it: The hashrate of BTC is, get this, ALMOST 1 TRILLION times that of BTG -> yet they're basically the same thing with the same function. Such an inefficient tech should be valued LOWER not HIGHER.
There's simply not enough suckers to buy into this to keep pumping its price up.
hastarin
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I just wanted to say thanks for your ongoing analysis and in particular your advice on trading with patience. Things like pointing out it's a process and not an event are true gems.
Shakesbear
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Thank you.
At what conditions are we going to admit that we are in a bear market and we never going to see 16000 again in the near future ?
Mikelikescrypto
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@Shakesbear, Come on now, we haven't broken the major trend line up. We're still in the awareness stage.
Shakesbear
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@Mikelikescrypto, I sure hope we are still in the bull market, that means there will be more mooning and dipping, which means more money for the traders.
But looking at how all the alt coins climax, we might be at the beginning of the end.
@Mikelikescrypto, Thanks for the chart. I guess the next couple days will be very crucial to see if the market is going according to our expectations.
rifleman217
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Strong summary... there's a definitely a wise message in it.
wkriski
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Yes I'm waiting patiently for up or down trend. It's a nice feeling to use TA instead of guessing. What candle are you referring to ie 4 hr, 1 day etc and what time one etc. Thanks