First of all, this sideways action gets confusing for most day traders. Even for me, to tell what will happen in the short term. That rally from the 8250 yesterday really suggest some buying power in the market for the short term. Doing that it created a 400 point inverse H&S where i warned my followers for, upfront. I was still short from 9050 and said my stop would stay at 8850, but yesterday i told i would close half around 8700 after seeing that rally. For now i am still flat, and i will probably stay flat during the weekend. But if i would take on a position, it would be going long here with a very close stop, around 8600. I would not feel to comfortable going long here. It's hanging on the neckline of the H&S but there is no real bounce so chances increase by the minute it will turn into a bear flag and we will drop below it and break support again.
My med term view are still prices around 6K/4K since we broke the 9400 a few weeks ago, that has not changed! For now i think price will go to a max of 9400/9800, but it's really difficult to predict upfront.
For now there are just many mixed signals, the wedge of my previous few analysis still holds as long as we stay below the 9200. But looking back at the 11.700 when we dropped out the wedge and than still made that rally above the wedge, means that prices below 9400 could still feel weight from that wedge.
If your flat now, my best advice is stay out and enjoy some free time this weekend. If you do something, keep it small. Usually price goes sideways during weekends, confusing both sides. You don't want to get caught in that web!
When we made the rally from 7250 i was hoping for a clear ABC towards 9200/9800, but i got confused because of that sideways action around 8200/8700. When we got above the 9000 i started to see some hesitation and that's why i took on a short position, knowing we could break the 8K again and go much lower or that it's just a correction of the rally. Up till now still no real answer.
Many people have asked me about that bigger inverse H&S on the 1H chart, i won't be trading it. Not now at least, i don't like that type of H&S at all, the right shoulder is to low and almost predicting it's to weak to reach it's real target. So even if we break it, i think it will be a big bull trap and that it wont reach it's target, maybe halfway
My med term view are still prices around 6K/4K since we broke the 9400 a few weeks ago, that has not changed! For now i think price will go to a max of 9400/9800, but it's really difficult to predict upfront.
For now there are just many mixed signals, the wedge of my previous few analysis still holds as long as we stay below the 9200. But looking back at the 11.700 when we dropped out the wedge and than still made that rally above the wedge, means that prices below 9400 could still feel weight from that wedge.
If your flat now, my best advice is stay out and enjoy some free time this weekend. If you do something, keep it small. Usually price goes sideways during weekends, confusing both sides. You don't want to get caught in that web!
When we made the rally from 7250 i was hoping for a clear ABC towards 9200/9800, but i got confused because of that sideways action around 8200/8700. When we got above the 9000 i started to see some hesitation and that's why i took on a short position, knowing we could break the 8K again and go much lower or that it's just a correction of the rally. Up till now still no real answer.
Many people have asked me about that bigger inverse H&S on the 1H chart, i won't be trading it. Not now at least, i don't like that type of H&S at all, the right shoulder is to low and almost predicting it's to weak to reach it's real target. So even if we break it, i think it will be a big bull trap and that it wont reach it's target, maybe halfway
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If price stays above the green area, the inverse H&S is still valid. It's best to see a bounce up soon, but i have seen these kind of bear flags get killed by going sideways and slowly up. Now it looks like it's trying to do that. Exhaust te bears!
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If we drop below the 8550ish, than it's a confirmation that the inverse H&S was to weak to reach it's target, meaning the market is still to weak and we could see an acceleration downwards. This all is typical sideways action, so it's always confusing for day traders!
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Now the bulls are showing them selves a bit, it's not there yet, if we break 9000 than we can assume we go towards the 9200ish target
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If they keep pushing it like this, i think they will even reach 9500, because than they will have created a bull flag since the 8250 low
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Okay guys, i am out for a while, i will try to keep you up to date if i am able to, good luck
Dont forget to like :)
Dont forget to like :)
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Last one, here you can see the bull flag i am talking about. That blue area i talked about yesterday, that usually is a reversal signal. Up till now it's almost confirmed, if we get above the 9000 than it is.
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A bit disappointing that it did not push through directly, bitfinex has clearly different plans, bot the other are no so enthusiastic. Everything above 8850 is a clear bullish sign. If it drops below, than chances increase for sideways action
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This is very bad, very weak!
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I am going short now, small position
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The neckline of that H&S could save it again, but i give it 25% chance it will hold
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I will add when we drop below the 8700/8650. Looks like it's making a bear flag now. It's very weak that it could just not push higher, that it did not get above the 9100, after all those rallies it made. It was looking so strong.
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Looks like it created a bearish wedge from wich it just dropped out off! Target is the low around 8300
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Sorry i did warn you guys sooner, i was just on my way home again, i looked away for an hour or so. Otherwise i would have shorted it sooner myself
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Hanging on the support, around 8700, i have added already, still not a big position!
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I know it's way to early to call it, but there is a big chance that this was already it!. It's weekend so of course this drop could just be a shake out. I am going to hold on to this position, and IF we drop towards the 8300 i will wait and see what happens there. Around 8000/8100 i will be much more carful, because this could just be an ABC correction in wave B. Meaning we could make a final rally from around the 8000 back into the 9K levels. Anyway for now it's still hanging around the 8700 support, but there is no bounce, so 80% sure we drop below it
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I think the green support area is the minimum target of this drop. It could find strong support there
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When i zoom out, i think we could be inside a triangle now. I am also not sure about that new wedge i showed earlier. But it's always good to be prepared!
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I have been scrolling around a bit to analysis of some other people, i am really amazed about how many think TA patterns is just drawing some lines, that if you can draw a line on 2 or 3 highs or lows that it automatically becomes a trend line or an H&S. I have really seen some amazing H&S patterns and bull flags. I don't even need to look up their history, but i think they all started using TA when trading crypto's. So no TA experience on the normal markets. Thing is, they have probably seen the most ridiculous TA patterns the last year or two, reach their targets. But they were probably for 90% bullish patterns. Thing is, as we all know of course, the crypto market had an insane bull rally in 2017. So when you were a bull, almost every trade was of course a winner.
But now as the market much bigger than a year ago, things have changed allot. Much more whales (like hedge funds) that have entered the market because they smell easy money. But the meaning of some TA patterns starts to change than, the driving force behind a certain pattern is not the same as it was a half year ago. And it's just exactly this what most people just don't understand or probably don't even know. The market has changed, the buyers and sellers are not the same people we had a year ago.
Think about that, but please don't listen to me alone, it's not like i have all the knowledge and answers. Just think about it objectively and with common sense
But now as the market much bigger than a year ago, things have changed allot. Much more whales (like hedge funds) that have entered the market because they smell easy money. But the meaning of some TA patterns starts to change than, the driving force behind a certain pattern is not the same as it was a half year ago. And it's just exactly this what most people just don't understand or probably don't even know. The market has changed, the buyers and sellers are not the same people we had a year ago.
Think about that, but please don't listen to me alone, it's not like i have all the knowledge and answers. Just think about it objectively and with common sense
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Here we see that triangle again, there is no need that we follow that blue line, meaning that we should make a bounce from around here. It could just drop further down. If i do think we could be going towards the 8700/8800 again i will probably close my short position (or at least part of it) and add them again around those levels.
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I have closed half already at 8520, If it drops below the 8400ish i will probably add them again
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Okay guys, i got suspended it seems. Or at least my last idea i posted. It seems it's against the house rules to post wallet addresses here. I just have seen so many others do the same, don't know why they are doing this to me now. I am waiting for a response again from TV, hopefully they put my last idea online again very soon
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I really don't feel like updating that much now, until this is resolved. All the time and effort i put into this, finally my idea was almost the number 1 idea and than this happens. We have broken the support finally, looks like it will drop further today
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Yes i know guys, thing is. I have a small family business where i also have obligations and put in may hours, as you all know i put in allot of hours in here and i am trading allot myself. I only have a few hours when i am really free, just don't have to energy yet to set something up. It's probably quite easy, but i have no experience with setting that up. I will ask a friend soon to help me
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There is some buying volume here around the 8300, i have closed a small % already to reduce risk and lock in some profit, just in case!
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My last analysis is still blocked and will probably stay that way. TV did not save my last chart, so i have to do everything all over again. It will take some time
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I closed another small % at 8100
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