BudBronson
Giá lên

BTC - prepare for the long awaited reversal

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
BTCUSD 4H

Hey guys. As you have seen on my previous Bitcoin and Ripple forecasts, I've been quite bearish for the past few weeks and didn't call for a reversal once. This has changed now. I assume the overall correction to end very soon. My projected reversal zones are $7.300-6.900 and $6.500 max.

Here are my reasons:

- We have (almost) completed a whole elliott corrective cycle. A clear zig zag with a 5-3-5 structure. We're currently in the making of the fifth wave of wave c. When price has hit 8k level few days ago, I clearly said, that I won't be entering or even considering opening any longs as price has just made a three waves structure - which does not make sense as we're in the bigger wave c and therefore need to see a five wave structure.

- I've been calling myself to look for a long setup on BTC at around 8k level for the past few weeks and I have seen tons of other really good analysts and traders I know myself calling for the same level. That has been before price actually hit 8k. So even if price hasn't completed a five wave structure once it hit 8k, smart money has begun entering again at that level - whether it be through opening a 100% position or by dollar cost averaging. So the smart money sentiment has definitely begun to change at this level. On the other hand media coverage and mainstream sentiment couldn't be worse now. You hear some people calling for a drop to 2k, 3k or even that this is the end of Bitcoin . This is exactly the same psychological behaviour/pattern we saw when Bitcoin has nearly hit the 20k level in December. Media coverage couldn't have been better and mainstream sentiment was incredibly positive. Every newbie was just screaming common phrases like 'to the moon' with no real technical or fundamental analysis backing this, let's call it 'assumption'.

- For the first time in this corrective structure, we do have a clear bullish divergence showing up on the 4H - which again, is very similar for a fifth wave. Also the momentum is decreasing and not the same as it has been in wave 1 or wave 3.

- Some pairs - I'm especially keeping an eye on XRPUSD - are starting to slowly decorrelate from BTC . While BTC has made a lower low, XRP hasn't. Same as in November and December, some pairs might start to get more 'independent' and not following BTC 100% like we've saw it with XRP.

So, this isn't a call to long BTC right now - but my bias has definitely changed and I am awaiting a reversal to happen soon. If price violates the first projected reversal zone at 7.3k-6.9k, I'm looking for 6.5k. As for XRP, we could see price forming a double bottom OR making a lower low too. For now, a clear projected reversal on XRP is too early in my opinion, as I would like to see how price develops over the next hours.

I will update this idea, once it gets 10 likes. Make also sure to follow me, for updates and forecasts on other pairs. Safe trades and may the month of February turn into a good one!

Bud
Giao dịch đang hoạt động: Longs activated at $7396
Giao dịch đang hoạt động: second projected buy zone at $6500 has been hit - adding to my initial position
Bình luận: Hey guys, so BTC dropped harder than expected - but my overall bias hasn't changed. Sure, we can see a continuation till 5k-4.5k but if you're dollar cost averaging these are all great opportunities to increase your holdings on both, BTC and alts. Besides the technical aspects, the thing that actually gives me most confidence is the HEAVY pessimism and panicking. It's funny how we've witnessed the very same behaviour just reverse when BTC has nearly hit 20k. To pinpoint an entry under such market circumstances is without a doubt harder than under normal market conditions, but I am absolutely convinced that we will witness another bullish rally in the next weeks/months - who knows maybe even in a few days? Doesn't matter. What matters is that chances are high that it will happen. So personally, I think that this is a great opportunity to steady and slowly increase your holdings. Take into consideration, that a reversal never(!) happens just with a single candle. So once BTC and alts have found their bottom, maybe now, maybe till it hits 5k-4.5k this will be followed by a consolidation/range period before the next rally begins. Holding patiently and buying the dips is therefore what I will do. Thanks for all your feedback, likes and follows! Best, Bud :)
Bình luận: Hey guys, same as with the XRP setup it is unclear if todays upmove has been the first bullish impulse we've waited for or if it is just another correction before continuing to the downside. 2 scenarios possible: the first one is that the overall correction is done and this has been the first bull leg. Look for a three wave correction and a logical entry after confirmation. The second scenario would be that price plummets and we'll see a double bottom, maybe even a violation of the recent low. For now, it is too early to say which scenario is the right one.
Bình luận: Hey guys, as some of you have asked: I do now have a Telegram group! Feel free to join: https://t.me/bbgtv
Bình luận: Hey guys, as you can see on the chart price is forming a bearish wedge and is slowly approaching a strong confluence area acting as both dynamic and static resistance. So, I would not be surprised to see price breaking the wedge. From there on we might either see price forming its first higher low, a double bottom or even a violation of the recent low. Re-evaluation is necessary once price starts to plummet.

For a more in-depth analysis join my free Telegram! https://t.me/bbgtv

any bounce off a resistence expected on the way up?
Phản hồi
BudBronson userbeauty
@userbeauty, price always moves in waves. It never just plummets or rockets straight away without taking a breath at a support/resistance - therefore yes
+1 Phản hồi
userbeauty BudBronson
@BudBronson, Thanks! any insight at/towards which levels?
Phản hồi
userbeauty userbeauty
@userbeauty, Looks like 9700-10,000?
Phản hồi
BudBronson userbeauty
@userbeauty, As we've witnessed a heavy downmove over the past few weeks, there are actually many different resistance levels. For an investor none of these might be of great importance, for a swing trader more important and for a daytrader very important. It all depends on your trading style and the timeframes you're trading. This T.A however is a mid to longterm view. I'll try to update it whenever I believe to see something that might be of interest for this analysis. Safe trades!
+2 Phản hồi
userbeauty BudBronson
@BudBronson, thanks! You said in your post to look for 3 wave correction to signify end of overall correction. I looked it up and see it has to do with Elliot waves...could you maybe shed some some light on what that may look like in this context?
Phản hồi
It rebounded back from 6k region few hours back and is now moving upwards. Do you think this is just a rebound and it will drop back again to 6k region? Or is it beginning a new bullish uptrend?

Waiting for your views. Thank you.
Phản hồi
BudBronson imfamousrajat
@imfamousrajat, just updated it. Safe trades!
Phản hồi
As far I am concerned. I have reached my buying target. long wait since Jan 17th
Phản hồi
stop FUDING bastards. Look bro Chris testimonial. The meeting will pump the price!!

WRITTEN TESTIMONY OF
J. CHRISTOPHER GIANCARLO
CHAIRMAN, COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION
BEFORE THE
SENATE BANKING COMMITTEE
WASHINGTON, D.C.
FEBRUARY 6, 2018

Conclusion

We are entering a new digital era in world financial markets. As we saw with the
development of the Internet, we cannot put the technology genie back in the bottle. Virtual
currencies mark a paradigm shift in how we think about payments, traditional financial
processes, and engaging in economic activity. Ignoring these developments will not make them
go away, nor is it a responsible regulatory response. The evolution of these assets, their
volatility, and the interest they attract from a rising global millennial population demand serious
examination.
With the proper balance of sound policy, regulatory oversight and private sector
innovation, new technologies will allow American markets to evolve in responsible ways and
continue to grow our economy and increase prosperity. This hearing is an important part of
finding that balance.
Thank you for inviting me to participate.
+6 Phản hồi
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