- Wave A to 10k - Done
- Wave B to 15k - Done
- Wave C to 6k - In Progress Now, probability 66%?
Optimistic higher bottom, 9.4k, 8.5k but starting to doubt so. I was actually wondering where to fit my wave C for 5k BTC in previous chart and I realize my mistake. When ppl said I was crazy with 8k BTC prediction before it even formed, that its not possible. Well, I agree, i was wrong. It is 6k BTC , not 8k =) A breakdown below 5k would put us into a bear market. 5k is the absolute bottom that must not break in order for a resumption of bull market after consolidation.
This is Wave C down as shown in this new chart.
13k will now become a major resistance. Next major support is around 10k. I am not expecting anymore reversal from here as the market confirms that the great bull market 2017 is over. As before, pls donate if this TA helped you =)
1) If right shoulder has yet to formed, we should see it go higher from here to 15.7k again as part of a 2nd rescue effort. The market is still a little bullish in this case.
2) If neckline is 13k (a little slanted) and right shoulder has formed. This is just the pullback into the neckline before we go down. Still seeing BTC struggling with the resistance of the neckline.
The rising wedge atm is still a bearish sign and there is no sign of a downtrend reversal. I understand that many of you are used to BTC's fast pace speed but it will not immediately jump off from the bottom to 20k 30k 50k or beyond without consolidating first. There needs to be an accumulation phase.
1) Real Neckline is diagonally downwards as previously refuted at 10.8k
2) BTC is now in ABC pattern to complete the B rally and form the right shoulder (wave count matches) A & B done, C going up to 16k.
3) It will come down to neckline at 10.8k, break it and the puzzle begins here. Whether we see BTC supported at 6.5k or 3k.
If BTC does not respect that correction because manipulators do not wish to dump, then we are indeed done with correction from the previous bull run of 3 months, and could most certainty take off from here with huge buy in from side liners.
A break upwards 14k would return BTC to its uptrend on the short term. It still runs the risk of a shoulder form at 16k and thus would only show true reversal after a convincing break thru above 16k with volume to support and remove risk of H&S. We will continue to see slow movement from here as this stalls out, and a risk of big dump from our friendly buyer.
Patterns such as H&S only works because it "suggests" problems with the market and a fall in buying power. But if someone is willing to buy in hard, then the H&S is not invalid. Patterns play on emotions.
Should the 14k resistance fail break, it will still go down hard. Risk to Reward Ratio, remember that.
*Yellow impulse wave down just for reference, not real targets.
Technical wise, bulls have done their best to save the rally and freed the trapped bulls at the top. Bears will now control the price and enjoy a return from 2 years of hibernation. The market is still unaware of the change in trend and some bulls are still battling it out but once we break 13k, volume should pick up and price will accelerate downwards towards the new bottom of 6.5k. 8.5k if we are more optimistic.
Fundamentals wise, its has not all negative so bottom may be higher. This is largely due to misunderstanding of the Segwit2x fork being re-enabled again. It was just a misdirection tactic to confuse the market and pump the price up. Segwit2x fork is not replacing bitcoin as previously intended but will basically be "hijacked" as an alt coin. Nonetheless, we can see the market reacting positively to this news so this pose an issue with the bear run.
Manipulation wise, we can see downwards pressure across all USDT market and chart analysis suggest that the market is in sync for a major correction. But we have seen some strange buying power such as one that forced a 700 BTC sell wall to pull the order at 15k. I suspect it was just wash trading, rather than two group of whales fighting it out. We will see how this play out somewhere in the 14k range.
Don't think I left anything out. Good luck and stay safe! There will be a consolidation at the bottom so if you are unsure of how to get the best price for a long, you can watch for the consolidation triangle and play the breakout. Please don't pm me trying to copy my trade.
Currently the ball is still in the air as bulls and bears fight it out, do watch out for the 16k reversal break. Buying volume is really low atm so its likely just someone still looking to lift the price higher to dump. Volume here is the deciding factor still, otherwise we go sideways.
It looks like a real lack of supply to push the price any lower. At this point, I would just play by the ear and take small positions, be aware of the risk above.
Seems like the overall trend refuse to change no matter how many days go by. BTC is at risk of falling out of the wedge right now, but it looks like we have 1 more attempt to test the 16.5k resistance.
I am surprised how many people kept asking me if its safe to enter long and I can only say, I don't know but I don't want to make you feel like you are missing out on gains. Long at 15k, gain 2k @ 17k, lose 9k @ 6k. Honestly, why long? Go short.
Note that the E wave seldom touches resistance, they normally lose steam halfway to the target in a downtrend.
Impulse wave 1 down has just completed and looking to do a wave 2 bull trap now. If all goes well, we should end up at the buy zone at 6k, although fundamentals will ultimately decide the bottom. TA can only give a range, so for now, still play by the ear as new price info comes in. It's best to do your own TA actually cause I am just giving a general direction and not a crystal ball prediction in real time.
At the moment BTC is in a tight spot between up / down. It has to break 17k to return to bull zone, and bears need to break 15k to enforce the correction. The problem however is the buying power below, that we see again and again that someone keeps buying it, so then the fundamentals of what make a H&S works, doesn't work anymore. The 16k support line is now the main battlefield. But breaking up or down doesn't really matter as the longer it drags out, it will just become consolidation at the top which we are seeing as we continues to go sideway again and again.
The whole point of "whales" dumping the market is when no one else wants to buy in anymore at that high price, so its time to sell some supplies and spook the market until new money can flow in again. We label these as corrections. New investors will find the discount attractive and use past gains as a measurement of what to expect in the future. The game then continues to rise and repeat until everyone get sick of it and the market is dumped on entirely with average investors holding the cans. Ultimately, the whales accumulated cheap at the bottom so there is no losses to them and they have already taken much profit by lifting the price up.