Giá xuống

6k BTC Incoming? Still Correction, not Bear

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
I refuse to believe that the neckline is diagonally slopping downwards. The neckline is being tested now at 13k which makes me believe that i am still correct in 13k being the neckline. Recounting some waves due to timeframe adjustment, I realize that for the ABC correction, we have done A and B. So this now fits my other 2 years retrenchment chart. Now lets wait for 13k neckline to break, we will see some pullbacks along the way due to the sharpness of correction giving the impression of fake bottom along the way. Beware of bull traps, many many of them and do not keep your short open all the way down.

  • Wave A to 10k - Done
  • Wave B to 15k - Done
  • Wave C to 6k - In Progress Now, probability 66%?

Optimistic higher bottom, 9.4k, 8.5k but starting to doubt so. I was actually wondering where to fit my wave C for 5k BTC in previous chart and I realize my mistake. When ppl said I was crazy with 8k BTC H&S prediction before it even formed, that its not possible. Well, I agree, i was wrong. It is 6k BTC , not 8k =) A breakdown below 5k would put us into a bear market. 5k is the absolute bottom that must not break in order for a resumption of bull market after consolidation.
Bình luận: I realize I didn't adjust the text in my red text box which says "A in Progress, Sub C Wave (4/5)", that's for my previous chart which might put the right shoulder on wave 4 but I realize now that its actually the bigger B wave up and not a sub wave 4.

This is Wave C down as shown in this new chart.
Bình luận: 13k neckline broken, going to see a support somewhere at 12k then pullback to 12.7k as a last ditch attempt to save the trapped bulls. After that, its free fall from with desperate attempts to secure a new bottom until the end.

13k will now become a major resistance. Next major support is around 10k. I am not expecting anymore reversal from here as the market confirms that the great bull market 2017 is over. As before, pls donate if this TA helped you =)

BTC: 16VhzB59twANDvinuWzGJqdNWor9b9Uym2
LTC: LgegoiHGwN8UmoobmSn69nrDU3fvjTuudp
ETH: 0xA21844A23d6C18384101E67313C1260449F5cbf2
Bình luận: Seems to be testing where support and resistance is at the moment, suggesting that the right shoulder had not completed and we are still forming the right shoulder of the B wave bull rally. That puts the neckline around 11.5k now. So 2 possibilities.

1) If right shoulder has yet to formed, we should see it go higher from here to 15.7k again as part of a 2nd rescue effort. The market is still a little bullish in this case.

2) If neckline is 13k (a little slanted) and right shoulder has formed. This is just the pullback into the neckline before we go down. Still seeing BTC struggling with the resistance of the neckline.

The rising wedge atm is still a bearish sign and there is no sign of a downtrend reversal. I understand that many of you are used to BTC's fast pace speed but it will not immediately jump off from the bottom to 20k 30k 50k or beyond without consolidating first. There needs to be an accumulation phase.
Bình luận: I stretched the timeline to paint out the extended possibility.

1) Real Neckline is diagonally downwards as previously refuted at 10.8k
2) BTC is now in ABC pattern to complete the B rally and form the right shoulder (wave count matches) A & B done, C going up to 16k.
3) It will come down to neckline at 10.8k, break it and the puzzle begins here. Whether we see BTC supported at 6.5k or 3k.
Bình luận: Rising wedge appears to have broken ahead of time, I don't think I can extend the rising wedge again. Major support is now at the 13k neckline again. Its going down from here most likely.
Bình luận: The strange accumulation is back again. its starting to become obvious that someone is stocking up and its not clear what the intention is. At this point, we are at his mercy. And we are only expecting this correction to 6k based on 2 years of bull run.

If BTC does not respect that correction because manipulators do not wish to dump, then we are indeed done with correction from the previous bull run of 3 months, and could most certainty take off from here with huge buy in from side liners.

A break upwards 14k would return BTC to its uptrend on the short term. It still runs the risk of a shoulder form at 16k and thus would only show true reversal after a convincing break thru above 16k with volume to support and remove risk of H&S. We will continue to see slow movement from here as this stalls out, and a risk of big dump from our friendly buyer.
Bình luận: Remember that without enough supply to sell, there is no way to force the market price further down so then patterns doesn't matter anymore even if we see a H&S as someone is willing to buy in.

Patterns such as H&S only works because it "suggests" problems with the market and a fall in buying power. But if someone is willing to buy in hard, then the H&S is not invalid. Patterns play on emotions.
Bình luận: We are near the breakout apex now where BTC will decide to break upwards the 14k resistance line or go down. Alot have asked me whether to enter long again and again and well... here is your entry point now at the end of the consolidation. But remember your risk above here, good luck!

Should the 14k resistance fail break, it will still go down hard. Risk to Reward Ratio, remember that.
Bình luận: Might be doing this right now to complete the ABC waves, that will get us to the peak of B and form the peak of the right shoulder. Let's see if we bounce off 14600.
Bình luận: Miscounted the sub waves inside C as ABC. Looks like we done the ABC, short of the 16k target by a little, going to see if we go down now. It shouldn't be floating here, that's my only concern.

*Yellow impulse wave down just for reference, not real targets.
Bình luận: I thought one very tiny waves was missing, so that's why we were floating there. The final wave 5 hit 16k as per the extended timeline, and momentum indicators started showing strange divergence at this time suggesting that we may have hit top. There could be a slight reversal, but highly unlikely from the indicators. The accumulated BTC will now be used as supply to push the market price down as previously warned. I hope everyone got out safe, its time to play shorts and exit longs.

Technical wise, bulls have done their best to save the rally and freed the trapped bulls at the top. Bears will now control the price and enjoy a return from 2 years of hibernation. The market is still unaware of the change in trend and some bulls are still battling it out but once we break 13k, volume should pick up and price will accelerate downwards towards the new bottom of 6.5k. 8.5k if we are more optimistic.

Fundamentals wise, its has not all negative so bottom may be higher. This is largely due to misunderstanding of the Segwit2x fork being re-enabled again. It was just a misdirection tactic to confuse the market and pump the price up. Segwit2x fork is not replacing bitcoin as previously intended but will basically be "hijacked" as an alt coin. Nonetheless, we can see the market reacting positively to this news so this pose an issue with the bear run.

Manipulation wise, we can see downwards pressure across all USDT market and chart analysis suggest that the market is in sync for a major correction. But we have seen some strange buying power such as one that forced a 700 BTC sell wall to pull the order at 15k. I suspect it was just wash trading, rather than two group of whales fighting it out. We will see how this play out somewhere in the 14k range.

Don't think I left anything out. Good luck and stay safe! There will be a consolidation at the bottom so if you are unsure of how to get the best price for a long, you can watch for the consolidation triangle and play the breakout. Please don't pm me trying to copy my trade.
Bình luận: I just noticed that the 3rd candle did not form, taking a little longer than expected. We need a long red candle down to 15k, along with a break of the support there in order for this H&S to start forming. That can act as confirmation to short.

Currently the ball is still in the air as bulls and bears fight it out, do watch out for the 16k reversal break. Buying volume is really low atm so its likely just someone still looking to lift the price higher to dump. Volume here is the deciding factor still, otherwise we go sideways.
Bình luận: It has broke 16k with somewhat convincing volume, largely due to short squeeze. But the 16k line is now holding as a new support At this point I believe the H&S pattern is unrealistic to play out anymore. We will just see a slow upwards movement as price continues to consolidate and BTC transfers to stronger hands.

It looks like a real lack of supply to push the price any lower. At this point, I would just play by the ear and take small positions, be aware of the risk above.
Đã hủy lệnh
Bình luận: We are going down again to test new support if 16k cannot. Bears are still controlling the price here and BTC appears to be in a struggle. The risk of the H&S still looms heavily if we cannot get back above with convincing support.
Bình luận: The long red candle finally appeared! After such long anticipation, it looks like wave C correction may finally happen after all! I am expecting a bounce off 15400, to 15650 then down 15000 to complete the first impulse wave down.
Bình luận: The wave count didn't exactly play out as I expected but am getting a clearer picture now of what BTC was doing. The H&S is looking feasible again after the last sell off. We see now that BTC has formed a bigger bearish rising wedge instead of an upwards channel. If BTC breakout downwards, it will likely form the right shoulder with the neckline around

Seems like the overall trend refuse to change no matter how many days go by. BTC is at risk of falling out of the wedge right now, but it looks like we have 1 more attempt to test the 16.5k resistance.
Bình luận: BTC has broken out of rising wedge, estimated bottom is 12.5k for now. Wave counts just for illustration purpose until we know more price info. Selling volume should pick up on the way down, still playing by ear for now.
Bình luận: Looking good, I am updating the progress of this fall in my other idea. But so far, so good. This is why i kept emphasizing the need to be aware of your risk if you wanna go long here, to take small positions. The sell off is fast and deadly.

I am surprised how many people kept asking me if its safe to enter long and I can only say, I don't know but I don't want to make you feel like you are missing out on gains. Long at 15k, gain 2k @ 17k, lose 9k @ 6k. Honestly, why long? Go short.
Bình luận: Still a waiting game, doesn't look like we will be going down for awhile based on the indicator. Here's a new plan, I checked and the sub waves for C to D plays out. Like I said before, TA always gets updated in real time. Not a crystal ball that predicts from day 1.

Note that the E wave seldom touches resistance, they normally lose steam halfway to the target in a downtrend.
Bình luận: This is how the new expanded wedge looks. Just so you know, I did not just expanded the wedge on a whim. As mentioned in my other idea, a break below 14500 support is needed or us to continue downwards from here. For now, we still play by the ear, its a little strange to have BTC moving so slow given how fast it moved throughout 2017.
Bình luận: Sorry wrong chart. I need some sleep sigh...
Bình luận: Did not hit the neckline to complete the H&S today, somewhat frustrating at the lack of progress but we remain in bearish territory with unknown direction at this time. It is pretty much a scalper market for now.
@GramTooNoob still going strong with your predictions... took a little longer to shake out. But seems right on after this last dump eh?
Phản hồi
GramTooNoob JohnWayneWeb
@JohnWayneWeb, yup, phew. I was really worried for awhile that I may have kept people who wanted to enter long from missing gains. The bull trap really went all the way to the very end, the indicators were so confusing by then. Glad you didn't bought in, eh? =)

Impulse wave 1 down has just completed and looking to do a wave 2 bull trap now. If all goes well, we should end up at the buy zone at 6k, although fundamentals will ultimately decide the bottom. TA can only give a range, so for now, still play by the ear as new price info comes in. It's best to do your own TA actually cause I am just giving a general direction and not a crystal ball prediction in real time.
Phản hồi
JohnWayneWeb GramTooNoob
@GramTooNoob, I tried to stay out but had a few moments of FOMO on the long. So it hasn’t been Perfect on my end but that’s my inexperience. Might try to short some of these waves but also not that good so might just stay out top the bottom.
Phản hồi
fantastic analysis gram, keep up the good work.

ur friend
Phản hồi
So you think the correction is finally done? BTC will not keep correcting on to lower levels?
On a side note, do you think its really convenient for the "whales" to dump and pump all the way to the bottom... Is it not more convenient to keep the price relatively high?
Phản hồi
@avito1, Nope, I don't believe the correction is done. So what happens is that if we continue to go up to new ATH without this correction then... we will simply see a bigger correction next time. Say from 34k to 12k. But if it continues up without major correction, it will eventually become a really dangerous bubble and not just a correction anymore. That's the real threat.

At the moment BTC is in a tight spot between up / down. It has to break 17k to return to bull zone, and bears need to break 15k to enforce the correction. The problem however is the buying power below, that we see again and again that someone keeps buying it, so then the fundamentals of what make a H&S works, doesn't work anymore. The 16k support line is now the main battlefield. But breaking up or down doesn't really matter as the longer it drags out, it will just become consolidation at the top which we are seeing as we continues to go sideway again and again.

The whole point of "whales" dumping the market is when no one else wants to buy in anymore at that high price, so its time to sell some supplies and spook the market until new money can flow in again. We label these as corrections. New investors will find the discount attractive and use past gains as a measurement of what to expect in the future. The game then continues to rise and repeat until everyone get sick of it and the market is dumped on entirely with average investors holding the cans. Ultimately, the whales accumulated cheap at the bottom so there is no losses to them and they have already taken much profit by lifting the price up.
Phản hồi
avito1 GramTooNoob
@GramTooNoob, Ive been trying to apply some game theory concepts to this crypto market, but the problem formulation is quite complicated (I think beyond my current grasp), the high volatility, I feel makes historical data somewhat unreliable... heck I cant even make up my mind if this is a zero-sum game or not... started reading up on Elliot Wave analysis, I might be asking you a few things later... I am currently sitting on the sideline, dont feel I am capable yet to go surfing... got a small amount on xrp which so far seems to be quite solid... BTC seems to be converging on a wedge right now... lets see if resistance gives in... is there some kind of correlation (time-wise) between the size of the "bubble" and its consequent correction? This corrections has been dragging on for so long now...
Phản hồi
@avito1, there are different type of corrections. Minor corrections are relatively straight forward, such as wave 2 and 3 during an uptrend. Then you have the "major" correction at the end of wave 5. Because crypto markets move so fast, it feels very unnatural at the moment but this is only because we are undergoing a complex correction for a 2 years long bull run so the market is very undecided on where it is going. Because the market is confused, everything slows down especially when majority only know how to play long.
Phản hồi
It seems like nothing is bound to happen. An endless and very slow game of pong. What is your take on the Sigwit Fork news? Las time it caused a real pump and dump after it was cancelled... do you think these news might cause some FOMO (free coins!) and at least get the bulls some more momentum? Or people will be more cautious this time around...
Phản hồi
@avito1, its just a fork like the rest of bitcoin god, platinum, silver, diamond etc.This one just calling B2X to take advantage of the confusion, but it really is just an alt coin. If the market is bullish, I think the news would help the price, get some dividends. But in this bearish state, probably no. The community in general wants to fix bitcoin and promote more alt forks.
Phản hồi
VI Tiếng Việt
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
HE עברית
Trang chủ Bộ lọc cổ phiếu Bộ lọc Forex Bộ lọc Tiền điện tử Lịch kinh tế Cách thức hoạt động Tính năng Biểu đồ Quy tắc Áp dụng Người điều hành Giải pháp cho Website & Nhà môi giới Widget Thư viện Biểu đồ Chứng khoán Yêu cầu tính năng Blog & Tin tức Câu hỏi thường gặp Hỗ trợ & Wiki Twitter
Hồ sơ Tùy chỉnh Hồ sơ Tài khoản và Thanh toán Ticket Hỗ trợ của tôi Liên hệ Hỗ trợ Các ý tưởng đã đăng Người theo dõi Đang theo dõi Tin nhắn riêng Trò chuyện Đăng xuất