Bitcoin seems to be loosing momentum on the short term. It dropped below rising trend line and now retesting it as an resistance. But thats not even the biggest problem, at the top it made some sort of ending diagonal (normally set after a big, in time and price move). I see 2 options here, this whole move up was just a big bull trap and some heavy (Bitcoin) lifters hav been able to onload their Bitcoins at prices above the 10K and now we can crash again towards the 6K. Option 2 (the more realistic) it's only ready to make an ABC correction after this big impulse upmove from the 6K low. It's guessing to where it could go, 8K, 9K or just staying above the 10K and making a correction mostly in time. For the bull engine to stay intact i think it should never drop below the 9000 anymore, but thats my feeling now.
Thing is, several important alt coins say it's 100% guarantee we will go down (look at my other charts like BCH, XRP, ETH, EOS). I have been mentioning this a few days now, that it really bothered me, they say down while BTC says up. Think now we have our answer
I have started to build up a big short position, i think the top for this retrace from the big drop yesterday is probably set
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This is what triggered me, this failed H&S, broke out but fell back in very quickly. It's the first since we took out the 9K. That got me thinking that momentum is probably changing. Ofcourse, i could still form a bigger right shoulder, but when i zoom out, i only see it dropped below the big trendline from the 6K and now it's just making a big bearish flag from that selloff yesterday
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I have my short position complete now, This will be for a longer trade, wider stop around 11.400/11.500, targets are low 10K and 9K's. I will close parts on the way
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This bigger inverse H&S, which looks like the other one a few days earlier, when it made a similar drop, it did not even reach the neckline. The right shoulder was also getting to big and taking to long AND buying volume was lower. Looks more and more than i am right about my call that it dropped below the big ascending trendline and that it was only retesting it as an resistance. Confirmation will be if it drops below the 10700
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Something else, educational. It's something i have been noticing for a while now. On the 1 min chart, on several exchanges, you see many times a big buying volume spike on temp highs. Not once or twice, i have seen it many many many times now. Probably spoofy with his was trading tacticts, i dont know yet. I would say, scroll a few days back, and you will see it many times happening
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If they can pull off this small H&S, they can probably delay it for a few hours
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Or not :) LOL
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I closed 20% at 10750 (reducing risk)
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Bigger picture, last support, if 10700 breaks, i only see 10200 as the next support level. Now we are seeing the consequences, of that manipulated/controlled move up from the 9K to the 11700. Thats probably the main reason why these drops happen so fast, because their were no real buyers making the whole move up (they probably jumped in between 11.000 and most of them at the high of 11.700. I really feel sorry for those people who have been tricked into this, not knowing what is happening. For them i would not even mind if it would go up from here again
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I am out for a while, good luck all
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The green area (10700) just became a clear resistance. So an important level to keep in mind. There could be a wedge forming here, could temp be a rescue for the bulls, bringing it back towards the 10700 again. But Bitfinex is leading the way down again, as it does most of the times
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I have closed another 20% at 10400
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Yeah it's a wedge, it could fall out the bottom though, 70% it goes up, 30% it drops below and makes a fast drop of 200 points or so. If it breaks that red area i will close another 20% and will open it higher again
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There it is :) just to easy sometimes. Now we can see that when volatility is at it's highest, even a child could trade this (because they work without emotions). I am just convinced that at moments like these there is no manipulation, no Spoofy, only the market at work. That's when TA works at it's best. I think Spoofy and his gang are waiting on the sideline. 2 options with that, or volume and dumping is to high and they can't really stop it, or it's what they want and they will come to the rescue around the 10.000 or 9000. Maybe a third option actually could be, they are waiting for it to cool down, volume (dumping) to cool down AND than jump in for the rescue
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I am stopping the updates (for now), likes/views/followers are falling way behind again. For example, i posted a perfect trade on Ripple (XRP) all the comments i got (were probably children) who were making fun of me :) LOL. It's just typical for this crypto world, at least for 90% (or even more). For the ones who want me to continue to update, make an effort to increase the likes and followers. The last time i requested this it worked, i would appreciate if you would do it again. You can all see how much time and effort i put into here, with the many updates and trading ideas. I just dont have the time and energy to do it myself
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I have closed another 20% by the way, 40% left, i will probably add 20 to 40% back again between 10700 and 10900 (if it gets there), over and out :) good luck all
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One more, i closed another 20% at 10520, feels like it's slowing down now
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I have added 20% again at 10750, could go to around 10.900/11.1000 again, i will add on that way up again
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Neckline of big H&S is bursting, if it's really an H&S, than it's all been a bull trap.
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The target of the h&s says around 8500. With a drop that big, could mean the whole move up was just a big bull trap. Looking at some alts, that have targets at the lows, almost confirm that thought
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That’s it for today guys, I almost gave everything I plan. Views likes followers still falling behind. When it increases I will start again
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Oke oke :), another one, the bulls are trying to do the same as yesterday, making slightly higher lows and highs, turning it around again, but this time chances are 30% they will make it. I think it's a final desperate attempt to fail the H&S and get above the neckline again.
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And another one :)
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I have closed 50% and will close the rest around 9500 or a 100 point trailing stop from here
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I have got half in again at 10270
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10220
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Breakout cannot be ignored, but the 10.100/10300 neackline weighs more. So this will be the test
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Zoom in, we can see i rising wedge, not the best one, but would really fall into place with the bigger picture
Thanks so much, i think the downtrend can go 2000 - 4000, what do you think
botje11
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@longrock, I think it could even go to zero, but i wont underestimate it. There are many big stakeholders with lots of money who can easily push it up when they want. Unless some very negative news comes out and dumping begins again like last month, than they wont be able to stop it. The herd is very easily influenced and if the hype engine gets started again it can go very far. I think we will never see the 20.000 again, but i wont be surprised it they do make it
Kolio99
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Thank you mate u are very helpful , that 6k pump to 11.7 did see so artificial i went only went half in , the market looks so manipulated it kinda makes me want to quit but i fallow u posts daily and see there is still some hope left
botje11
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@Kolio99, Yes it was quite obvious, was to systematically going up and up. But they scared all the people who were short, pushing them all out. Manipulation happens on all markets, also on the normal markets, but here it's very extreme and way to easy
yusef0526
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Wow!! I think you got it all figured out. Damn!!! 4AM china sell off!!
botje11
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@yusef0526, thank you, yes I have most of the times
Aamir66
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@botje11 how are you arriving at the 8.5k target? the left shoulder is at 9k though. Are you adding the difference it didn't make up to 12.2k?
people are obviously still very cautious and pulling out really quick, so sharp falls are expected I guess. Anything lower than 8.2k would take us down a bearish path, but hopefully this is just a healthy retracement before pull up to the 14ks. :)
botje11
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@Aamir66, excactly, that’s why I am convinced this whole bull move was a rescue operation, manipulated. But they can’t hold it if volume increases