Bitcoin 50 Week MA in Bear Jeopardy
An underlying weakness in the market is rearing its head today and the range of indecision continues to narrow. Is this market ready to turn bullish yet or are we in for another shakedown? Let’s discuss.
Let’s do the hourly analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart to gain some perspective on our weekend targets. Price only continues to down-trend after yesterday’s post and early this morning 7am EST price had made a low on the day of $7,543. This also at the black up-trending support line which, which helping to form the ascending triangle price has been in for a while.
Since then price is back up at $7,650, sitting right below the 50 hour moving average which is giving an fair amount of resistance, and slightly concerning, since that was difficult in the past.
Price has already tested the 50 hour MA once around noon earlier today, so another push through it should give it enough to get back up to that critical purple horizontal line at $7,700.
Price getting and holding above there for a few hours would be a good sign, but for a bullish breakout we need price getting back above the black horizontal line of $7,750.
I have also drawn a descending broadening wedge with the turquoise lines to help highlight another pattern latent pattern here. These patterns typically are a continuation of the previous trend, which is bullish.
On the indicators, RSI has some strong hidden continued bullish divergence here marked with a black line, but otherwise is quite neutral for now. The MACD lines, both look like they have potential to cross the zero line as well which should provide additional bullish momentum.
On the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, you can see the black lined ascending triangle better and this pattern can break either direction and the lack of volume and indecisiveness can help tell that story.
You probably can only put two more candles reasonably into this triangle, maybe three so, like I said above it has to make a move soon.
Additionally I have added another down-trending pitchfork anchored to the swing high on May 21st and then the swing low on May 29 and back to the swing high on June 4th. If there was hope for bearish action, the bears would need to start squeezing the bulls very soon. The same can be said on the up-trending pitchfork with the bulls, but as of now the price is right between these levels showing the indecision.
Honestly, both pitchforks don’t hold much validity yet, since there’s only been a few candles in each so far on the daily and we are just speculating about the direction of the next trend.
RSI and MACD both look bullish here and I am still leaning that price will turn bullish and make a rally up to the pink horizontal line at $8,250 eventually, however for now, price is finding a deadlocked equilibrium. If price does head downward that dark blue line up-trending line around $7,435 will provide bouncing support.
On the weekly analog Bitfinex chart, the important thing to watch again is the 50 week moving average over the weekend. Right now it’s sitting at $7,818 and price is sitting at $7,654. That is a $164 difference and very manageable. This going to be a huge price point, given the indecision in the market and historical significance of a bearish crossover for Bitcoin.
If price closes below there, I would expect a torrent of selling that could take Bitcoin down to the .786 long term Fibonacci level at $4,346. This could be happen very quickly and certainly wake the volume levels up from it’s coma. If price closes above there, the long-term bull trend is still alive.
If such a capitulation event happened though, I would expect a subsequent explosion in price over the next few weeks. Remember, the strong hands would love to take your money down at those levels.
-More on Vanddar.com
Let’s do the hourly analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart to gain some perspective on our weekend targets. Price only continues to down-trend after yesterday’s post and early this morning 7am EST price had made a low on the day of $7,543. This also at the black up-trending support line which, which helping to form the ascending triangle price has been in for a while.
Since then price is back up at $7,650, sitting right below the 50 hour moving average which is giving an fair amount of resistance, and slightly concerning, since that was difficult in the past.
Price has already tested the 50 hour MA once around noon earlier today, so another push through it should give it enough to get back up to that critical purple horizontal line at $7,700.
Price getting and holding above there for a few hours would be a good sign, but for a bullish breakout we need price getting back above the black horizontal line of $7,750.
I have also drawn a descending broadening wedge with the turquoise lines to help highlight another pattern latent pattern here. These patterns typically are a continuation of the previous trend, which is bullish.
On the indicators, RSI has some strong hidden continued bullish divergence here marked with a black line, but otherwise is quite neutral for now. The MACD lines, both look like they have potential to cross the zero line as well which should provide additional bullish momentum.
On the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, you can see the black lined ascending triangle better and this pattern can break either direction and the lack of volume and indecisiveness can help tell that story.
You probably can only put two more candles reasonably into this triangle, maybe three so, like I said above it has to make a move soon.
Additionally I have added another down-trending pitchfork anchored to the swing high on May 21st and then the swing low on May 29 and back to the swing high on June 4th. If there was hope for bearish action, the bears would need to start squeezing the bulls very soon. The same can be said on the up-trending pitchfork with the bulls, but as of now the price is right between these levels showing the indecision.
Honestly, both pitchforks don’t hold much validity yet, since there’s only been a few candles in each so far on the daily and we are just speculating about the direction of the next trend.
RSI and MACD both look bullish here and I am still leaning that price will turn bullish and make a rally up to the pink horizontal line at $8,250 eventually, however for now, price is finding a deadlocked equilibrium. If price does head downward that dark blue line up-trending line around $7,435 will provide bouncing support.
On the weekly analog Bitfinex chart, the important thing to watch again is the 50 week moving average over the weekend. Right now it’s sitting at $7,818 and price is sitting at $7,654. That is a $164 difference and very manageable. This going to be a huge price point, given the indecision in the market and historical significance of a bearish crossover for Bitcoin.
If price closes below there, I would expect a torrent of selling that could take Bitcoin down to the .786 long term Fibonacci level at $4,346. This could be happen very quickly and certainly wake the volume levels up from it’s coma. If price closes above there, the long-term bull trend is still alive.
If such a capitulation event happened though, I would expect a subsequent explosion in price over the next few weeks. Remember, the strong hands would love to take your money down at those levels.
-More on Vanddar.com
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