Hi All,
Yesterday’s pump has squeezed out most of the short positions. The pump was very aggressive BUT keep in mind that we are still in a downtrend channel.
Remember when I said to you back at the end of March that I think the whales is going to pump the price up and break above the top of downtrend line in the linear scale so people think that a new bull run begins? However, the market was too weak at the time to even try to test the top of the downtrend line.
But, I think what I was expecting at the end of March is going to happen NOW. BTC is going to squeeze out the remaining shorts and shoots up to the true downtrend line in the log scale (chart provided below). Just like at the beginning of March when everyone thought the new bull run has begun because BTC has broken above the downtrend channel? But in fact, we were still inside a downtrend channel in the log scale? I think the exact same thing that happened on the 5th of March will happen again - BTC hit the hard rock and selloff ensued.
Secondly, with the aggressiveness in the last few days, I believe re-test of the top of downtrend line in the log scale is inevitable. Many traders now called the bottom is in, and people who missed out the chance to buy in at 6.4k have started to place their long positions. This is exactly what I have been waiting for - most the shorts are gone, and most are in long positions. And this is how BTC can go down to 4.4k – PANIC!!
Further, if you compare the 2014 crash and now, you can definitely see some similarities between the two.
Of course there is a chance of BTC going above the true downtrend channel in the log scale. However, if it does get rejected by the top of downtrend line in the log scale around 8.8k - 9k, a selloff will most likely ensue.
Taiwan Bear
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Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.
Some tips for you:
- Set up an entry/exit strategy for every trade, with the ideal risk/reward ratio (2+)
- Understand that every trade carries a risk, and don’t expect you can make profits from every trade
Yesterday’s pump has squeezed out most of the short positions. The pump was very aggressive BUT keep in mind that we are still in a downtrend channel.
Remember when I said to you back at the end of March that I think the whales is going to pump the price up and break above the top of downtrend line in the linear scale so people think that a new bull run begins? However, the market was too weak at the time to even try to test the top of the downtrend line.
But, I think what I was expecting at the end of March is going to happen NOW. BTC is going to squeeze out the remaining shorts and shoots up to the true downtrend line in the log scale (chart provided below). Just like at the beginning of March when everyone thought the new bull run has begun because BTC has broken above the downtrend channel? But in fact, we were still inside a downtrend channel in the log scale? I think the exact same thing that happened on the 5th of March will happen again - BTC hit the hard rock and selloff ensued.
Secondly, with the aggressiveness in the last few days, I believe re-test of the top of downtrend line in the log scale is inevitable. Many traders now called the bottom is in, and people who missed out the chance to buy in at 6.4k have started to place their long positions. This is exactly what I have been waiting for - most the shorts are gone, and most are in long positions. And this is how BTC can go down to 4.4k – PANIC!!
Further, if you compare the 2014 crash and now, you can definitely see some similarities between the two.
Of course there is a chance of BTC going above the true downtrend channel in the log scale. However, if it does get rejected by the top of downtrend line in the log scale around 8.8k - 9k, a selloff will most likely ensue.
Taiwan Bear
******************************************************************************************
Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.
Some tips for you:
- Set up an entry/exit strategy for every trade, with the ideal risk/reward ratio (2+)
- Understand that every trade carries a risk, and don’t expect you can make profits from every trade
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Same chart but in log scale:
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2014 crash comparison:
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Not looking too good for the bulls. Possible h&s.
If both the yellow trend line & the bull flag do not hold, BTC is going to dive from here.
If both the yellow trend line & the bull flag do not hold, BTC is going to dive from here.
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There is bearish divergence on RSI, if you are going long, please set your SL. BTC might not get to 8.8k.
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Never seen a more clear cut fib retracement than this.
And RSI 80+? Good luck bulls.
And RSI 80+? Good luck bulls.
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BTC still consolidating - wait for breakout.
Direction of breakout is unclear. But MACD bearish crossover has occurred.
Direction of breakout is unclear. But MACD bearish crossover has occurred.
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The arrow to the top doesn't mean I become bullish, it's just mean that a test of top of downtrend channel is likely and IF BTC gets rejected from the top of downtrend line, it will be very bearish.