New bull run has begun? Think again!!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
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Hi All,

Yesterday’s pump has squeezed out most of the short positions. The pump was very aggressive BUT keep in mind that we are still in a downtrend channel .

Remember when I said to you back at the end of March that I think the whales is going to pump the price up and break above the top of downtrend line in the linear scale so people think that a new bull run begins? However, the market was too weak at the time to even try to test the top of the downtrend line.

But, I think what I was expecting at the end of March is going to happen NOW. BTC is going to squeeze out the remaining shorts and shoots up to the true downtrend line in the log scale (chart provided below). Just like at the beginning of March when everyone thought the new bull run has begun because BTC has broken above the downtrend channel? But in fact, we were still inside a downtrend channel in the log scale? I think the exact same thing that happened on the 5th of March will happen again - BTC hit the hard rock and selloff ensued.

Secondly, with the aggressiveness in the last few days, I believe re-test of the top of downtrend line in the log scale is inevitable. Many traders now called the bottom is in, and people who missed out the chance to buy in at 6.4k have started to place their long positions. This is exactly what I have been waiting for - most the shorts are gone, and most are in long positions. And this is how BTC can go down to 4.4k – PANIC!!

Further, if you compare the 2014 crash and now, you can definitely see some similarities between the two.

Of course there is a chance of BTC going above the true downtrend channel in the log scale. However, if it does get rejected by the top of downtrend line in the log scale around 8.8k - 9k, a selloff will most likely ensue.

Taiwan Bear

Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.

Some tips for you:
- Set up an entry/exit strategy for every trade, with the ideal risk/reward ratio (2+)
- Understand that every trade carries a risk, and don’t expect you can make profits from every trade
Bình luận: Same chart but in log scale:
Bình luận: 2014 crash comparison:
Bình luận: Not looking too good for the bulls. Possible h&s.

If both the yellow trend line & the bull flag do not hold, BTC is going to dive from here.

Bình luận: There is bearish divergence on RSI, if you are going long, please set your SL. BTC might not get to 8.8k.
Bình luận: Never seen a more clear cut fib retracement than this.

And RSI 80+? Good luck bulls.

Bình luận: BTC still consolidating - wait for breakout.

Direction of breakout is unclear. But MACD bearish crossover has occurred.

Bình luận: The arrow to the top doesn't mean I become bullish, it's just mean that a test of top of downtrend channel is likely and IF BTC gets rejected from the top of downtrend line, it will be very bearish.
+1 Phản hồi
Getting through the 200 EMA on the Daily is going to be challenging. But if we can manage to close two candles above it, then that will be a very strong indication that the Bear market is over. There will be a pullback, of course, but the 200 EMA will likely become support. Should all of this happen, then it will be highly likely that Bitcoin will not see 6k again, and a lot of people will be saddened to realize they have missed the boat because they had their eyes set on a false price prediction.
Phản hồi
@rev214us, There is no bull until a breakout of downtrend channel is confirmed. period.
Phản hồi
rev214us Taiwan_Bear
@Taiwan_Bear, Wrong. A reversal begins with a single candle. Price does not have to obey our rules. Have you noticed that I didn't speak in absolutes about what price would do? It's because I am open to the possibility of being wrong. I know you want Bitcoin to go below 6k, but you may be disappointed to find out you are wrong. You have already been wrong about your price prediction for the 14th and 15th of April. Don't dig a deeper hole. There is more than one way to confirm a reversal.
Phản hồi
@rev214us, Why you apologised being rude yesterday, and now come here and start FOMOing? I am open of being wrong. I am not like MPC.

I will go long if BTC break out of the downtrend channel. I don't just stick to one side as I previously mentioned.

I have many ways to confirm it's not a reversal.

How about you show some TA instead of keep coming here and FOMOing? And apologised when you don't mean it?

+8 Phản hồi
rev214us Taiwan_Bear
@Taiwan_Bear, Don't get angry when people challenge your ideas. If you were open to the possibility of being wrong you wouldn't have been so quick to try to shut me down. I don't have to share my charts to know what I am talking about. The idea is to get in on the bull run as early as possible, using a stop loss strategically just in case you are wrong. If you are good at managing your trades, then you can still make money even if you're wrong. People who wait for the confirmation of the confirmation of the confirmation, usually end up buying at the top and selling at the bottom.
Phản hồi
@rev214us, I am not angry. But you apologised yesterday and now came back again saying the same thing. That's what I am angried about, not because my predictions were wrong.

+5 Phản hồi
rev214us Taiwan_Bear
@Taiwan_Bear, Yes; I apologized for being rude. But I don't see that I am being rude now. I am just trying to be helpful.
Phản hồi
@rev214us, Because you kept FOMOing while there is no evidence showing bottom is in. Every trader should stand their views. For me, without a breakout of downtrend channel, there is no confirmation of reversal. There are many ways you can say the bottom is in, just like I can find many ways to say it's not.

Right now you stand your point that the bottom is in. But what happen if it's not? You are just doing exactly what you think I am doing wrong.
+1 Phản hồi
rev214us Taiwan_Bear
@Taiwan_Bear, Wrong. I never called the bottom. I am only saying that price may not go where you think it is going.
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