The market is showing bearish movement. After making ATH. RSI is showing potential divergence which is sign of further downward movement. I do see a pattern here which have been repetitive in the price history. I'll elaborate.
For example fibonacci gives some facts and pointers. I have noticed one pattern which have been repetitive and I think it's valid this time too. There has been different times and reasons why the price has went downwards eventually ending up recovering. Usually these downward movements have ended to between 0.5 - 0.382 or 0.618 - 0.5 fibonacci levels. Let's categorize these two reversal zones because they are giving different results where the price is heading to and how the markets are acting afterwards. The first pair which is 0.5 - 0.382 has proven to be very effective to find reversal zone where the price has eventually recovered slowly. The second pair is a bit trickier which is 0.618 - 0.5 range. Why is it a bit trickier? After the first pair (0.5 - 0.382) makes new ATH, the price tends to dip but not so much before making new ATH. After that it starts to fall promptly until it hits the first pair (0.5 - 0.382). The reason why you have to be careful and keep eye on this specific range is that there has been fake outs before. These fake outs have dipped perfectly to 0.618 - 0.5 range, bounced upwards and failed.
Short summary: What's the difference? 0.5 - 0.382 starts new trend which is lasting longer and is slower to build up aiming to make new ATH which dips to 0.618 - 0.5 range. 0.618 - 0.5 builds up more swiftly, more like a short term and pushes usually new ATH and falling heavily afterwards. It's like a cycle. Long positions should be opened based on confirmed reversal signals in these zones.
How Elliot Wave Theory is supporting this idea of 0.5-0.382 being strong reversal zone? Rule number 3 supports this idea which is the following: "Wave 4 can never overlap Wave 1." Now if you look at the chart you do see Wave count and that it has really bounced off from that level. Together these two are giving us leverage to find out where the price is reversing. This is why it's important to track the wave counts and see how many waves are yet to come.
How about Moving Average 100? Through out the history of bitcoin MA100 has given potential and great support level. Every time price went down, MA100 been there supporting us. I might share this idea down in the comments.
Things to remember:
To trade safely we need to use stop losses in case something goes wrong.
Note this is a long term trade! Requires patience and flexibility to adjust the sails of the market movement.
Always be aware of things, trends and events what's happening around the current crypto you are trading. They may have big impact on the price movement!
It's better to wait than to regret. This is important when you are doing long term investments! Knowledge behind of your trades gives you success, more often!
Any questions or need help? Feel free to leave comments and feedback! Yarr!
However, you forgot to incorporate the upside extensions, and only focusing on the size of the pullbacks. The extensions have been 2.2 to 2.5x the pullbacks. So 2.2x 5500 is 12,100 and 2.5x 5500 is 13,750. So I don't think we've quite hit the top of wave 5 yet. So long as the RSI stays strong up here, and moving averaTas the move this year has been vertical, so better to skip some off the top and just wait to go short if it makes one last blowoff top to 13,000. The money will be easier to make on the 30% drop than risking for that last 10% up. I plan on selling around 11,000, there is resistance there and we are very high up this mountain, with my stop at 9,000.
WARBUCK
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Watch the weak hands start to walk the plank, arrrrrrrr
sdzd1234
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Seems like it is end of big 5th wave and could drop just under 5000 USD 0.38-0.5 like your possible reversal zone
luxx
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@KamilStasiak, I'm leaning towards this statement, along with @josephtse above - I think we'll see the price top 13,000 before the end of the year, given increased awareness / exposure by general public, boredom at Christmas and people experimenting with BitCoin. Historically prices correct down in January (there's a chart depicting this for the last 2/3 years floating around somewhere), this could potentially be the wave that brings us to 0.38-0.5 / 5k mark we're seeing above. Pure speculation, but the rally to 13K could be 'encouraged' by the whales for the next couple of weeks - with futures coming in to play they may edge the price higher for the next couple of weeks, before dumping / shorting manipulation in new year.
DU09
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Nice graph, so what is the interval for buying, price wise?