Bitcoin can go down to $4500

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
Hi every one,

I am quite new to this crypto trading, but just to add my two cents, here is my 1st post. In my humble opinion, BTC reversal is not very near. It may take from one week to three weeks and reversal price shall be in range of $4500 to $6000. Here are the reasons :-

The last time we saw such a bullish trend was in late 2013 and that is the only instance with which we can historically compare the recent prolonged bullish trend of BTC . Both trends are pointed with arrows on the chart. As we can see that whenever there is reversal, RSI has to touch 30% line. But it shall not be the case this time, because that reversals were of sub trends in overall bigger upward trend. Whereas, this time around, we are in broad bullish trend and RSI shall go to 20~25% range to counter the market bearish sentiments. As we can also see the reversal in 2013 was after 30% RSI line was broken many times and it took quite long to reverse the trend. Though this time around i will be quicker due to more liquid market, but RSI has to go more down.

One more thing is to note that when RSI comes down from 80% or so, it can correct by touching 30% line, however, once it comes down from 90% it must go further down to create the balance.

In nutshell, If you are sitting with fiat, sit tight for at least couple of more days. If you are in top 10-20 currencies, you can still short and try to catch the dip. But if you are in alt coins with less market caps, it will be hard for anyone to catch the dip due to liquidity issue so you shall keep the alt coins for time being. At best you can rearrange your portfolio.

Please not that this analysis is only for discussion and educational purposes.

Stay blessed.

Bình luận: There is lot of FUD out there. Rest assure BTC will bounce back within few days. Remember, in this game you are against the bots and whales together, so you must be strong to get profits. Don't panic, there will be lot of bull traps in next few hours/days. The real bullish flag will come with volume or will come after noticeable consolidation.
Bình luận: There will be few more high lows before full correction of BTC that is around $4000 to $4500. Best time to buy will be after reasonably prolonged consolidation with low volume and bullish signal will be marked with strong weekly green candle which will close above the last high low with good volume.

Play safe
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