The long-term super-cycle Elliott Wave Count has suddenly become very clear after breaking down from this contracting non-limiting triangle which is the 2nd phase of a double combination. This will probably be the end of Wave (b), which means we should get a very deep retracement of wave (b) which will complete Wave (c) probably around 270 USD. After which, Bitcoin will likely be at the lowest price that we will ever see it at from that point on, and the bigger picture shows that after wave (c) is completed we will probably get a wave (d) which may or may not go higher in price than wave (b) but probably won't exceed 1800 USD, and then after that we'll get a smaller wave (e) and at the end of that wave we will likely begin the logarithmic trend on Bitcoin that ended in 2013. This should happen sometime around 2020, and from then we'll start to head towards 12k-75k USD very quickly, and eventually in the longer term we will likely go even higher than that because this is probably going to form a non-limiting triangle in this position. That means that from the low of 270, Bitcoin could potentially increase 200x and be nearing a 1 trillion USD market cap by 2024.
This seems very extreme but because the government is financing massive budget deficits through money creation, and because the debt is reaching unpayable levels, and because these types of monetary policies almost always lead to hyperinflation (see Kiguel 1989), that means this is a definite and very real possibility. So with that on the table it is very likely that if the government is faced with another financial crisis such as the ones that happened in 2001 and 2008, then they will be forced to increase their deficits to even more extreme and unpayable levels and finance them through even more quantitative easing, which is almost guaranteed to lead to a massive collapse in the value of the dollar. There's also the possibility that the US government gets dragged into a war with China over the China Seas and/or with Russia over Ukraine and Europe, which could also push the debt to an even more extreme figure, not only for the US but for all of those countries and many others too.
Such a situation as a financial crisis or a world war is definitely going to create a massive loss of faith in the government once people realize that the governments can't pay back their debts without destroying the value of their fiat currencies which those debts are denominated in, and then people will start to pour into decentralized systems such as cryptocurrency, and pretty much anything that isn't fiat currency. So not only bitcoin will do great over this period of time, so will many other cryptocurrencies. Essentially, my forecast right now is that while Bitcoin is going to get dragged through the mud over the next 3 years, anyone that has the foresight to hold bitcoins long-term will be rewarded greatly. While this forecast is not a direct trading recommendation, it is definitely something that I want to keep my eye on because it could very well be our roadmap for the next 7 years, and if this next bear-run materializes it will be an amazing opportunity to pick up some cheap bitcoins.
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While the long-term elliott wave count has not yet changed, it does look like in the short-term this could head towards 1250. If this sets a new ATH I may have to re-evaluate the count.
Such a huge fan of your analysis. There is a rather ominous mood creeping up of a bitcoin crash, maybe after it stretches a little more to reach new ath. What do you think will happen to all the other alts should that happen, bitcoin money will spread and alts will see major growth, or would a bitcoin crash cause the whole market to bleed a lot, and people cashing out into to USD?
@Intuit Hello, I have seen your long term chart and prediction on BTC/USD. Just sharing and wonder if you have come across this guy (go google Tom McClellan) who also predict it the direction that is similar to you using pattern matching of Nasdaq chart which serve as a leading indicator. He posted it back in late January, so far till now it has colerrated very well. If it really continue this perfect colerration, BTC should have reach its peak for this period and a great fall should be coming in soon. Let me know what you think. Thanks!
Kappy
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Why do you forecast a bigger picture triangle over an expanding flat playing out? I'm calling for the same kind of decline short-term but my count is different in that I see an expanding flat completing the ongoing long-term correction.
Intuit
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@Kappy, There's really no way of knowing for sure at this point. It could end up either being a triangle like my chart shows or it could be a flat (probably will be a c-failure flat if anything). Also if it is a triangle then it will line up well with the beginning of the inflationary period based on the 40 year kondratiev wave, so that may make a lot more sense. Really the only way of knowing is to see how wave-c develops, if it impulsive then we get a flat, if its corrective then we continue on to form a triangle.
ReneFroger
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I decided to follow your analysis, and sold my BTC holdings around $1000 a week ago. and decided to buy again when BTC hits around $800 / $850, where I expect there is much support.
I'm not sure if it was a good decision after all. BTC has risen after my sold, where you expected a drop. In which timespan do you expect that BTC will drop?
Intuit
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@ReneFroger, This is a weekly chart so it could take a few weeks before continuing the downtrend, but on the short-term charts it seems like there is a lot of resistance around 1100 and we could be nearing the top of this bounce soon. I moved the great majority of my Bitcoins into altcoins except for the minimal amount I saved for trading futures, I definitely don't want to be holding any significant amount of bitcoin right now against this weekly pattern. And for these weekly forecasts a lot of the time you have to be very patient before they start playing out because the timeframe is so long.