So this is what I see on BTCUSD. If we manage to do one more leg up, then we will 80%+ certainty stop at one of those higher trendlines (weird colored ones). Otherwise, you can see we have a wedge and we fall now we will keep on falling in love and out of love with bears (Alicia).
The THICK green trendline at the bottom is the most likely place where we will find the strongest support (and hopefully stop falling). The thick red line on the right is the place where Goldman Sachs analyst predicted us to stop the correction (1/3rd of the time it took us to get to the ATH).
Regarding RSI, you see clear divergence, at first we accelerated and our next fall was higher than the trendline, but now we fell down thru the uptrend of RSI, meaning we are turning bear by the hour. Either we fall now or touch one of those fancy colored trendlines higher and fall then after the last bull trap.
Volume is looking to die down too, which is also a bearish signal.
Now, bullish scenario: We pass both of those crazy colored trendlines with bullish biased volume and we skyrocket higher, after retesting the new support (in those fancy-colored trendlines) an the RSI turns bullish too. Then we can go long. But right now it looks pretty nasty. So if I were to short it (which I am doing) is to short it now and have the stop loss at least 50-70 dollars above those fancy colored lines and have my target at the bottom thick line. This should be a HUGE trade on Risk to Reward ration. Good luck.
Pro-tip: for conveniece, press "share" - "make it mine" to get the zoomable and editable copy of this graph at your disposal.
I will also add an Elliot Wave perspective here later in the update, but there isn't much to see, it's one of the agreed upon, conventional EWs at the moment.
Oh, and my 2 cents on sentiment analysis. I don't believe we have seen the bottom at 2980 recently cause once that happens (the real final bottom), r/ethtrader frontage will be full of bearish posts and comments as the most upvoted. This is when you know you have seen the bottom - when the majority (95%) have already sold. When people sell it they are bearish biased, that's how human emotions and biases work, that is sort of common knowledge. Also, by simple logic - when the majority (95%) sell, there is no one left to sell anymore. The price literally can't go down any lower. What about 5%? Well, my friend, you can be one of them and I hope I am one of them who sold now.
Bình luận
⋅
The EWs perspective (didn't bother to draw the subwaves)
If you have any questions ask away. If you see that I made a mistake please do correct me, as I am horrible with EWs.
Bình luận
⋅
i was bugged that my red line had all wicks prodding it and redrawn a new trendline, only based on the candles after the drop. it is almost parallel and just slightly higher to the previous red line.Here's how it looks like with it. Also notice RSI.
Bình luận
⋅
We have prodded thru the trendline but so far having a hard time going much further or even staying above the trendline. 0.5% penetration is not to be taken seriously. However, I tend to think we will still see some more upwards action still. Let's see how it plays out.
Bình luận
⋅
Just to be clear xD I have a short and I may be very biased cause of it (but then again, I opened short meaning even before it I was bearish). This is what I see as around 75% possibility. 25% possibility - we pass thru all these trendlines and fly off to 6K+ on a Lambo unicorn. Be aware that in (at the very least) 1 out of 4 scenarios we will get our bear asses prodded by FOMO horns.
Bình luận
⋅
Seeing bearish divergence on RSI on most timescales. The bulls MAY have one more major (100 USD+) leg up, but I doubt it. I am 80% bearish.
Bình luận
⋅
So someone just sold 800 BTC in a matter of 2 minutes around 10 minutes ago. I do believe we will start the fall very very soon. Be alert.
Bình luận
⋅
Probably the beginning of the end.
TA-wise there are still things to cross on the checklist and we haven't even fallen out the wedge yet. But I feel this is probably starting already.
Bình luận
⋅
Fundamental analysis update:
Bình luận
⋅
Some funny shit is going on with the price and the volume and the orderbook. Real funny stuff. If you have time I'd recommend to actively monitor the trades and the orderbook and use 1 min graph right now. Just to see the action. Real interesting.
Bình luận
⋅
As you can see, the BTC bounced off the purple trendline as I mentioned eariler being one of the possible tops. Cool. The possible targets: 2900s, 2300s, 2100s, 1900s. The 2300s is the most probable and the best in terms of possibility of reaching there to the profit ratio. Next, the intermediary targets (for small swing trades are 3520s, ~3100s. Good luck.
Bình luận
⋅
As you can see on the graph above, there are 2 lines (blue from Fibonacci and green as a static support) that are very close and possibly unneeded, however, check this out, when we zoom in at 15 mins:
You can check it yourself, and use this graph for more precise small-time trades if you click "share" - "make it mine".
like what? they wash hands to build volume? about this you talk?
profghibli
⋅
@blacksea00, that might be too, but more the fact that multiple millions of dollars were sold in the last 1 day in quick bursts of volume of 300 to 1K BTC, which looks pretty bullish on teh regular 5 min and 15 mins and 30 mins graphs, but it was clearly a selling volume if you check 1 min graph.
@blacksea00, probably on all/most of them, but yeah, I am looking at Bitfinex.
Nidalas
⋅
@profghibli, Hey friend. Probable answer : look the USDT. When their selling volume is getting too high for layman's btc buying, they create some thether, and offsets the dip with constant fictive buy pressure out of tthin air. Also Zimbabwe crisis might help. I believe a major future btc crisis will come from that
profghibli
⋅
@Nidalas, Those Zimbabwe news are compeltel bullshit bro. Check that exchange, it does like 10 BTC a day or something like that. Maybe less. Just cause of the "hard to confirm" and "Hey it's Zimbabwe, any kind of shit could happen" kind of thinking that would refrain people from checking the facts that made the sensational news. There are a lot of countries with economical crisis that had people buying BTC for about 2 years already now. It's not something that would affect the price now. Definitely not 10 BTC a day with 80% premium.
Nidalas
⋅
@profghibli, oops, my answer was not clear at all, i meant "major crisis" from the thin air USDT production, not Zimbabwe xD unfortunetly, even if all the country went to buy btc, they couldn't even buy off a single big whale. But i mentioned it because it is still advertisement for btc and can help with layman's fomo
But yah the real issue is the usdt creating fake inflation value and easy to manipulate. Not very different from fiat mass printing from banks. This might cause a major meltdown in the future
profghibli
⋅
@Nidalas, this: "Not very different from fiat mass printing from banks" is actually very eye-opening.
profghibli
⋅
@Nidalas, and Hey! Didn't notice it was you man xD
TraderTherapist
⋅
China scenario, .... what if stated that it was in the charts anyway, that price of bitcoin (and the ones that followed their trends) was scripted to go down. If it wasnt for China ... someone else would be blamed. What goes up, must come down, spinning wheel got to go round.