It's testing $8k as I type this and while it just bounced up, I'm confident it'll retest and break below. The question is where is going to stop falling. It just broke through into the $7k on GDAX just now. Here's my prediction: ~$7,000 is my low this time around with ample opportunities to get in around $7,600 without any trouble. I have buy limits from $7,400 to $7,800 because once I get it, I'm sending it over to alt exchanges to take advantage of the delayed drops and higher returns vs. BTC.
With the superbowl kicking off tonight at 6:30pm EST, it'll be early AM in Asia. Monday mornings in Asia are usually if not always active and I expect it to be more active than usual. The question is which way are they going to react. Be on the lookout for some nasty tricks during the Superbowl. Crypto never sleeps and Asian manipulators in particular could care less about a game when they can execute their plan (whatever it is) while people are focused on the game. I would not be surprised if they used this opportunity to drive BTC to $6k or less to really rattle people while they're off guard and have been drinking. An argument could be made for it to reverse and leave those who were waiting for lower prices twisting in the wind, however my money (literally) is on the former. From their perspective, there's more money to be made with fear of prices crashing than fear of pricing rising and I don't believe the big players are done milking this "correction" anytime soon.
With the superbowl kicking off tonight at 6:30pm EST, it'll be early AM in Asia. Monday mornings in Asia are usually if not always active and I expect it to be more active than usual. The question is which way are they going to react. Be on the lookout for some nasty tricks during the Superbowl. Crypto never sleeps and Asian manipulators in particular could care less about a game when they can execute their plan (whatever it is) while people are focused on the game. I would not be surprised if they used this opportunity to drive BTC to $6k or less to really rattle people while they're off guard and have been drinking. An argument could be made for it to reverse and leave those who were waiting for lower prices twisting in the wind, however my money (literally) is on the former. From their perspective, there's more money to be made with fear of prices crashing than fear of pricing rising and I don't believe the big players are done milking this "correction" anytime soon.
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BTW the trend Fib is on the left and the retrace Fib is on the right. I think BTC's low this time around could land somewhere in the $500 gap between the .236 on both Fibs, however the more I think about it, the more I am concerned about Superbowl shenanigans coming from the Asian markets. I'd give it more than a 50/50 chance it drops below $7k. It doesn't change my entry all too much other than removing some of the higher buy limits and leapfrogging them lower with my finger on the trigger if things reverse quickly and they don't get executed. Remember it's always darkest before the dawn and the lower this goes, the higher the next all time high will be... if you believe in the slingshot theory which has worked well on BTC throughout history.
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BTC is right inbetween both .236 Fib's ($7,000 - $7,500). Volume across all exchanges are slowing down, it looks like this drop is fizzling out. Trade closed.