It's testing 8k as I type this and while it just bounced up, I'm confident it'll retest and break below. The question is where is going to stop falling. It just broke through into the 7k on GDAX just now. Here's my prediction: ~$7,000 is my low this time around with ample opportunities to get in around $7,600 without any trouble. I have buy limits from $7,400 to $7,800 because once I get it, I'm sending it over to alt exchanges to take advantage of the delayed drops and higher returns vs. BTC.
With the superbowl kicking off tonight at 6:30pm EST, it'll be early AM in Asia. Monday mornings in Asia are usually if not always active and I expect it to be more active than usual. The question is which way are they going to react. Be on the lookout for some nasty tricks during the Superbowl. Crypto never sleeps and Asian manipulators in particular could care less about a game when they can execute their plan (whatever it is) while people are focused on the game. I would not be surprised if they used this opportunity to drive BTC to 6k or less to really rattle people while they're off guard and have been drinking. An argument could be made for it to reverse and leave those who were waiting for lower prices twisting in the wind, however my money (literally) is on the former. From their perspective, there's more money to be made with fear of prices crashing than fear of pricing rising and I don't believe the big players are done milking this "correction" anytime soon.
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BTW the trend Fib is on the left and the retrace Fib is on the right. I think BTC's low this time around could land somewhere in the $500 gap between the .236 on both Fibs, however the more I think about it, the more I am concerned about Superbowl shenanigans coming from the Asian markets. I'd give it more than a 50/50 chance it drops below 7k. It doesn't change my entry all too much other than removing some of the higher buy limits and leapfrogging them lower with my finger on the trigger if things reverse quickly and they don't get executed. Remember it's always darkest before the dawn and the lower this goes, the higher the next all time high will be... if you believe in the slingshot theory which has worked well on BTC throughout history.
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BTC is right inbetween both .236 Fib's ($7,000 - $7,500). Volume across all exchanges are slowing down, it looks like this drop is fizzling out. Trade closed.
"there's more money to be made with fear of prices crashing than fear of pricing rising".. care to explain this? You can drop only 100% but can go up much more...I am not saying it will but didnt get your logic.
Regera
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@retiringsoon1, Great question. I just spent 10 minutes writing an response and it got deleted when I accidentally refreshed my browser. Here's the short answer (and it's not short haha): Big money players/manipulators/portfolios can't enter (or exit) a market without a longer drawn out process comprised of multiple upward and downward waves to persuade those who have BTC to sell it to them (in this scenario). If they wanted to push BTC upwards past 10k, there are buyers right now on the sidelines who will panic because they didn't get in before and want to catch the tiger by the tail. This leads to surges and anyone who witnessed the end of 2017 knows what happens when people don't want to miss the upward swing. Now the introduction of futures that has paved the way for more institutional money to enter. It's no secret that Wall St. types do each other favors all the time. A week after CME enters the game, the market crashes. Historically when this market crashes it rebounds within a few weeks and continues on an upward path. Currently, we're going on 6+ weeks with no end in sight. Everyone knows to "HODL" and weather the storm but how many people thought BTC would drop below 10k? 8k? What happens when it drops to below 6k? 2k? Enough "strong hands" who claim they are committed to holding will become weak and sell because maybe they got in at $1,000 and want some profit before its gone or perhaps they bought in higher and want to sell because they're fearful of losing it all (most of the sellers as we know are the latter). So how does driving the market down make more money? Well when the market is driven down lower and lower they'll be ready to pick up whatever's being sold. BTC, alts, you name it. Ask anyone who bought in over 10k how they feel when BTC dropped below 10k, 9k or 8k and most would be unhappy but can manage a short term loss until it corrects. Now imagine it dropping to 6k or 3k (hopefully not!). The list of people who felt comfortable just got a lot shorter and the names who dropped off are the ones dumping it to guess who. When enough money has entered the market and they've squeezed as many people who are willing to sell at bottom as they could, you'll see movement towards higher prices where it's all sold for more profit (hence my comment) then the cycle starts over. My apologies for the long "short" answer but I understand how my comment could be confusing at face value. Hopefully this provides a little insight and helps those who are trying to enter into this market.
darkandblue
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@Regera, hi.. first of all, thank you for taking your valuable time to give such a detailed answer. Much appreciated.
I personally do not buying into the idea of evil big money, maybe because there is nothing I can do about it. What you are talking about is a 2014 like correction. albeit it is scary it is a real possibility. Will they drive this to 2K, I am not so sure cause it would mean killing a lucrative market. The most successful parasite in the world is the which doesn't kill its host while taking as much food as possible. Therefore, I see 5k scenario more likely. Then drive up to 30K for another correction. (rinse and repeat).
However, I am constantly debating on how one can survive in these markets as small a player. I guess best is to target small profits and try to do it more often. In the end; 1.1^50=117
Regera
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@retiringsoon1, You are most welcome. I agree that 2k is far too low, I was simply using that number to make a point. Unfortunately all markets are manipulated and it takes deep pockets to do it. The good news is that there is something you can do about it because one major advantage of being the "little guy" is that we're able to build and modify our portfolios with ease. We won't control the market, however identifying the motives of the manipulators and adapting to it will ensure more predictable trades with higher percentage profits.