I am going long now, with a smaller position, wide stop to around 13.900, target is around 15.000, second target around 15.500. It is getting bought close to 14.000, so its getting some sort of buying support, or some are planning to get it higher again. It did drop out of that smaller time frame upwards trendline, It could still drop, but the retrace was 120 points above the breakout price of that trend line. If it would be really weak, the retrace would be much less,about 14.200. I have seen this kind of set ups before, showing some bearish signs, but still go up.
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In the last update of my previous chart, i posted this pattern, telling it's almost neccesary to stay in this pattern to stay above the 14K. So far it's starting to make small higher highs and lows
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Still looking good
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The red area is an obvious resistance, it should not get below the blue area anymore
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Seems to be making a smallbearish flag, i will close if it drops below the 14130 for a 40 point loss, and will wait for a better moment to get in again, if it stays above the 14K
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The 13.900/14.000 did not hold, the bearish flag i talked about the previous update got completed. The H&S that was already forming also got completed! I thought the H&S would fail this time to push it higher, but the market was to weak. I had more than 200 points profit, but i expected more. now it's forming a bullish H&S with a target of 14.300. I will wait for it to break out of the red resistance area, and i will wait for it to pull back again before i go long!
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First small position is in at 13550, second on 13.500 and third around 13.450. Total is is still a small position!
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I am lowering my stop sto 13.500, the H&S is turning into a bearish rising wedge now!.
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Again a small loss, after being ahead 200+ points again. It just does not want to go up it seems!
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I just went short
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Stop is around 13.800, we could see another drop towards the 12.900 low again. around 13.100/13.000 i will probably close half and let the other run. Lat update for now
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small flag, and a big H&S could bring us back to around 13K, but the market is very very weak!!!
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Bitfinex is holding back the other exchanges
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cointelegraph.com/news/just-one-person-found-to-have-caused-bitcoins-jump-from-150-to-1000-in-2013 What a big surprise (LOL) maybe, just maybe this will wake a few people up, about how this market is being steered, being created! So far it worked perfectly, the whole world as addicted at the moment. Self fulfulling profecy at it's best! Nice to see conformation of a few things being confirmed by others what i have been talking about for months now. It is new to me that it goes back years ago, but no susprise!
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I don't know what the problem at Bitfinex is, but it's holding them all back, difference is almost 500 points now, in % the biggest i have seen in months!
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The same flag at Bitstamp
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My guess is a drop towards 11.300/11.400, and maybe, maybe it could go up again from there
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It has to break this line, to get out of the extreme negative, otherwise we will see 9.000ish very soon
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This could become a wedge, wich means it could spike up any minute now. a drop below 10K means 9.000
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If it has the strength to make a bear trap, it could still cool down and get a bit higher, with a spike up. otherwise this is just a retracement
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And there is the false breakout, this does not mean it is over!! Could be, but only that it will cool down and slow down
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And there is the big upspike, This is almost a 100% copy of the 3000. bottom half year ago. There i got stopped out by 30 points, and 10 minutes later it was up 800 points (thats 25% in a few minutes!)
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Bitstamp seems to be making a nice H&S, but Bitfinex does not look that pretty, it's staring to loose momentem a littile bit at the moment, the highs are getting a bit less high, first signs that it can drop again (a bit). The last day, each time i said bitfinex was pulling down the other exchanges, now we know what this means after seeing today. At the moment the same is happening, so big chance we can see another drop, probably above the 10K, but thats all just guessing
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Rising wedge
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Now i am shorting it at 11380
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My stop is the red area
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I have lowered stop to entry level, target is 10850
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I am out :)
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2 options now, a bigger bullish H&S, wich can take us to the 13K, where the right shoulder is in the making now, but i think it's already to low now. Or a smaller bearish H&S within this right shoulder, wich has the biggest chance. A drop below 10.600, will mean another drop.
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This is the right shoulder, its obvious there is a big fight. It should have already gone up, so chances are 25% it will go up (for me)
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I am shorting it at 11120, short stop at 11220
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11.500 is an important level now
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Looks like it will make another drop, tried to get back in again, but there is no real conviction. 10.600 is an important support, if it stays above, it could still move up again
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Its making a flag now, probably gonna drop more, unless it make a spike upwards above 11K again
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And the 10.600 support broke, it made a nice bounce, so 50/50 it's the short term bottom. but i think we will see 10.000/10.100 at least in the coming hour.
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They held on this small down wave, if it gets above the 10.800, than i think the fun is over for the coming hours.
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Now the short term bottom is probably set, i thought 10.100 was a minimum, 10.200 held strong. The difference between Bitfinex and others is shrinking as i am writing this. Still 200 points, but if it gets to 100 points or less, than bearish fun is over for the short term. Last update for now, good luck
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Now it's time for europe to get out
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Looks like they are gonna hold it above the 10K (for now)
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Staying much to long at the 10K low, chances are much bigger now it will drop!
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I think short term bottom is near now, looks like its making a wedge again. I think it will extend to 9.300/9,200. Unless it breaks out now and spikes up
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There it is already
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I am long now at 9500, stop around 9300
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I have added a few at 9350
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I have put the stop at my entry level. Funny fact, Bitfinex is higher than the rest now LOL :). What a joke
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Probably going to revisit the lows
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I hope some of you made a nice trade, i did not have time to update. I will place a new idea chart now.
Thanks again for your detailed analysis! You are the only one here doing this and this helps me a lot! Let's hope it won't get lower than 8k.
botje11
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@knutselwout, Your welcome, I try to do it when i can, but it takes time and effort. I am thinking about quitting though, you can read about it in my newest idea
the_sunship
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good for you, shorting as well. still looks weak
botje11
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@the_sunship, Yes it does look weak, i think untill the moment that Bitfinex will be the same as Bitstamp and coinbase, it stays weak!
the_sunship
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all those wedges are a sign there are more people looking to get out than get in. I'm waiting for the big dump
botje11
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@the_sunship, Your probably right. I said a few weeks ago it's probably 'game over' for Bitcoin, but short term there were some bullish signs. And sentiment can change everyday in cryptoland. Could very well be things are changing fundamentally with Bitcoin. At least, from all the friends and family and all the people around me, the last month nobody is talking about Bitcoin anymore, only about the Alts.
the_sunship
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@botje11, I agree, I hear the same sentiment. It will be an interesting paradigm shift when the bitcoin market cap is not the top anymore. That day is coming quickly in my opinion. Eth and other more flexible technologies will surpass BTC, and once it happens the door will open for many others to over take it as well.
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@the_sunship, that will be interesting, in december we could saw the first signs when the alts coins were making massive gains in market cap! I don't believe in crypto (so far) in general, but i have not mastered the whole market to have a 100% convinced oppinion. But like you say, probably when the first one can become King, probably more will fight for the throne.
nicolas.papon
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@botje11, @the_sunship it's true that alts are draining money but the fundamentals of bitcoin as a decentralized reserve of value backed by pow remain. You can't compare bitcoin as it is now to alts soon to be projects backed by pos ... i'll give lightning network a chance (and 6 to 9 months) before to declare BTC deceased... What percentage of btc do you hold in your protfolio (i'm around 60%BTC, 15%ETH) ?
botje11
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@Nicolas.papon, I have no crypto whatsoever, only the BTC wich i need to trade with. I try to hedge my position as much as possible. I only make short term trades ont BTC and on alts, i don't want any for the long run. I don't believe in any of this. As you can read in my EURUSD chart a while back, i am convinced that the crypto market will get the blame for the soon (1 or 2 years) to happen economic decline/crisis worldwide.
Ofcourse i would like returns of 1000% in 2 days, or 5000% in a week. But that's not realistic. You know what the biggest problem is, it's just like the casino, when you have tasted the big wins, you get used to it and you wont be able to live without it. So 99% of the people who have been winning the last year, will loose everything again, maybe not this month or this year, but they will. I have paid my dues during the Internet hype 20 years ago. I am just trying to make a few good trades every month, nothing more nothing less.
A few weeks ago all the amateurs around me who just started, were all happy and amazed, the last week they are all complaining.