Sherem

Don't SWING trade BTC like a NOOB

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
This post will detail how I initially set up my SWING trade strategies for a medium term play and what levels I look at for flipping BTC             . First, lets notate what's going on in the charts:
Day Chart.
1. MACD crossed up, but is starting to fade and has not gone into positive territory
2. RSI is in the middle.
4 Hour chart:
1. MACD crossing down
2. RSI showing divergence.
3. This Trendline has been broken, but it hasn't moved up significantly after it broke which is probably not the best of signs
Buying Scenario if we move down:
I have about a 25% profit on my portfolio this year even while crypto's have moved down more than 50% for the year. We are doing well to say the least and we made out nicely on our last swing trade, and I want to set up another overall plan going forward and this is what I am looking at. It's hard to say in this vicious bear market if we are out of it yet or whether we get another substantial move up from our first support zone of the 7300 area. If the market is reversing, it will either happen there or at or buy zone #2/in the channel and in these lows. Once my first orders get filled I will be trailing my stops up as the market moves to lock in profit.

IDEALLY, we want BTC             to come down to this $7,300 level and then rocket up to the first major resistance at this 9k area to confirm an upside move. We could then work on new entry points for continuation. But what if we don't get a bounce and it starts really dropping? This is where our overall plan will take effect. We'll watch it close at that time to determine whether we should load up more or let our Martingale Strategies take hold if it moves down.

If you don't know what the martingale strategy is, make sure you read up on it! I will stagger my buys something like this:
Buy zone 1: 15% (will go in heavier if we get a stronger continuation or a pattern forms)
Buy zone 2: 20%
Buy Zone 3: 25%
Buy zone 4: 40% -Could it get here? I don't know, but if it does I want to be prepared.

My first buy I am looking to get in at this 7300-7500 area. Remember, having an overarching plan in place before we start trading allows us flexibility. Before bitcoin             dropped all the way down to $6,400, we were able to flip it twice for profit. And again in a big way from 6600-7900 where we got stopped out. More importantly, this strategy gives us OPTIONS. We are able to pivot and adjust as the market does, go in heavier if need be, etc.. If the market starts dropping like a rock, we have a solid plan in place to play it. Just as we did last time, we were able to flip it twice and make a hefty profit on the last large move up

Buying Scenario if we move up.
Even though we broke the trendline , we need to test these heavy resistance zones in the 9k area in order for us to feel fully confident that we can go in heavier than 10% of our portfolio on any sort of retest back down. If you pull up a chart from 2014

Until we move either up or down from here, we are in a no trade zone.

I trade this way because it gives me a high probability of being profitable and because no matter what anyone says, you don't have a crystal ball!
Happy Trading. Don't stress, don't use leverage and pick your points!

-Sherem

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Bình luận: I didn't finish my thoughts here and need to make a minor correction:

Even though we broke the trendline , we need to test these heavy resistance zones in the 9k area in order for us to feel fully confident that we can go in heavier than 15% of our portfolio on any sort of retest back down. If you pull up a chart from 2014, you can see where we had a false break and then a significant move back to the down side, which reminds us to use caution.
Bình luận: New chart post -
Bình luận: updated chart:
Ah, I really like how you added the martingale strategy for the buy zones. Thanks so much. Followed.
Phản hồi
BTC is also much more trickier too trade/time this one is still bearish IMO but alot of people can easily switch bullish with a false rally/reversal in May/June
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