Back in December i posted the 65% drop assuming we would drop as much as we did back in 2014 bubble and we did it was actually a 70% drop.
Currently i see another signal this time it involves the EMA lines and assuming we will retrace once again as much as we did back in 2015.
This signal it's known as the death cross when the 50 EMA line crosses below the 100 EMA line (Green and red lines) Back in October 2015 the 50 EMA line cross up the 100 EMA and it went on to perform an almost 3 year bull-trend finishing on 20,000$. Now it seems we are entering a long term bear trend, in the past when bitcoin -3.10% entered a bear market it dropped around 85%-89% from the top. If the market is set out to do this once again this will mark the bottom around 2500$-3000$ from current top which also aligns with the long term uptrend created since October 2015, (of course there are possibilities some exchanges create some wicks below 2000$ due to massive panic in the market giving some people great buys)
This is a long term outlook and it could take months or even years to happen.
Be safe.
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1 Year old uptrend line (Yellow line on chart) has been broken, next uptrend line currently at 2500$ (Black line)
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Closing above 9700- 10k with strong buy volume will signal the end of bearish trend.
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I'm expecting 3k could arrive as late as 2019 January, for this reason i think there could be a big bounce around 5k first and then sideways around 7-8k.
But it's important to note that once we close below Annual EMA things will go south fast.
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You can see Anual EMA here providing constant support
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BTC could correct up to 9k, in the most bullish scenario it could go to 11k.
But i'm still bear long term since 3k seems plausible.
3k By January 2019
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Looks like a 4th re-test at bearish trendline. I think at the 5th one we break it.
Thanks for your charts and comments. Just a questions... If Bitcoin break up the bearish trend line, will you still expect 3k for Jan-19?
rexlomax
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@yamne, Yes long term i still think 3k it's coming let me explain; the current scenario i have in mind is that we will break the bearish trendline around May (trendline resistance will be around 8.2k and once broken we will head to 10k and 11k and after failing to break above 12k we will head south till 3k. (This idea only gets invalidated if we break above 12k) other scenario is that we won't be able to break the bearish trendline and the fall will be faster bringing 3k sooner than expected but i see this as more unlikely.
Wingman
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possible but very very unlikely, your pure TA analysis does not correspond/consider some fundamentals, limited supply, increase demand and adoption.
we can definitely go sideways holding above 3-4k during this year sure but, i think there's so much money on the sidelines waiting to buy btc, also segwit, lightining all the scalibility debate behind us,
cheaper transactions, mining industry... so many things going on, that's my opinion.
let's all stay safe. cheers.
rexlomax
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@Wingman, Still think very unlikely? anyway i think it could correct up to 9k... Currently i'm projecting 3k by January
Wingman
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@rexlomax, yeah we finally broke out of the 4 month triangle, i still don't see it going below 4k, giving that mining/btc production average cost is 6k atm, but we can def some wick down there yeah, as long as we are trending there's money to be make right? no point to marry position/view. thanks for sharing ur point of view.