Cryptosomniac

BTC Update April 3, 2018

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
Good Morning folks! Let's get to our BTC analysis.

Above we have the BTC/USD chart 1h on the left 1d on the right. The immediate term 1h chart shows us that we found a strong support at ~$6450 range. After this we bounced up strongly and have been bouncing strong for the last 2 days. We currently sit at the $7300 marker. As you can see we are forming a nice bull flag here on the 1h. This usually results in a nice spike up near the end of the flag as BTC does not move sideways too much. It is quite decisive. Now while I cannot deny that the chart seems bullish in the immediate term, the 1d chart shows us a different picture. Let's see what it shows us..
Few weeks ago we encountered a similar bounce as what we're seeing today ($6.4k to now $7.3k). We fell from $9.8k all the way to $7.3k before climbing to $9.1k and then heading down further. We can call this a dead cat bounce, bull trap, whatever. This is very common in a larger bear market--creating lower highs. Now as you see volume even on the immediate bull run is greatly out weighed by the sell-side volume (1d chart). This tells me that we although the bears are lifting their foot off the gas pedal, they are maybe only doing this temporarily. If the pattern from the previous few weeks were to repeat, we'd see a strong rejection at $7.7-$7.9k and we'd then head down further. However, in the case that I'm wrong, you can place some buy orders at this $7.3k mark if you wish and set a tight stop loss at $7.1k. I understand for those of you who are working folks you just want a strong sign of a bullish or a bearish market. You want to pull the trigger and just hold, not keep trading every few days. This is totally understandable. So to you I say, I do not feel comfortable telling you that we're out of the bear market just yet.

Hope you found something valuable in my analysis. As always, we cannot predict the charts, the price action, we can only look at past history, current price action and indicators and do our best to make the move that offers us the best risk:reward ratio. Thank you and I hope you have a great day!
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