botje11
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Last chance to short Bitcoin at 16K, another 25% to 50% drop!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Đô la
The last 2 weeks i believe the sentiment around Bitcoin has changed a bit. The 50% drop last week has scared some people. Many people ho have been trading with leverage on Alts have been robbed again with the extreme spikes down. But even more important, people around me who have no experience with the stock market at all, but have with the crypto markets the last few months, i only here them talking about the Alt coins, almost nobody talks about Bitcoin . They talk about it, but they dont buy it! And i have seen many people with christmass and they all talk to me about it. They look at ICO's and the small Crypto's with gains of 50 to 100% a day. Bitcoin is not interesting any more for them. Only when it would drop to maybe 5K or so.

In previous analysis i have talked about a few other factors, why Bitcoin will make a big correction.

I thought that 16.000 was the max for this upwards correction, but it has made a small overshoot to 16.500. I am already short between 15.200 and 15950. I announced this when BTC was around 13K . My stop was at 16.600 and 17.200, but if it keeps hanging above the 15.600 the next few hours, than that will show a sigh of strenght and it will probably take out the red resistance line. So i will probably lower my 17.200 stop to 16.600.
My target's are below the 10K but i can adjust if i see new signs.
Bình luận:
Bình luận:
dropping on the first small supprt at 15.400, next support at 15.200
Bình luận:

No real bounce up here, probably will loose the fight over 15.200
Bình luận:

Small H&S, to stay weak it has to stay below the 15.500
Bình luận:
Bình luận:
Btstamp showed a very big sell order pushing it down 300 points to just below the 15K. within a half minute the rest followed.
Bình luận: We could see a drop to 14.500/14.600, but now or than, i think it will cool off a bit, go sideways with a max of 15.200 to maybe form a new right shoulder. My long term ( with that i mean days LOL :) it still below the 10K
Bình luận:
i think this will be the last small drop for now,
Bình luận:
Target of the H&S perfectly reached!! Target of the bearish flag also perfectly reached!. Small overshoot, I though 15.550 would be the max for now. It shows the fear in the market!! As i mentioned before, now i expect that it will cool down a bit, go sideways between 14.500 and 15.200, with this price action making a right shoulder of a bigger H&S. But all of this is still within the BIG H&S a posted a week ago! My believe the sentiment is not that strong anymore (on Bitcoin) the last 2 weeks. I believe we will see prices below the 10K again.

BUT i will close my big short positition earlier if i see new signals

Something else, i will stop updating if i wont get more likes. I just feels like an insult :), for again a perfect trade with updates.
Bình luận:

As suspected, trading range between 14.500 and 15.200. It could extend a bit more, but for the negative version a maximum of 15.600

I have added some at 15200
Bình luận:
If it stays within this cirkel, than expect some acceleration downwards after. If not, than this consolidation will take longer and chances increase that it will go towards the 15.500
Bình luận:
It could still drop back in, for more negative sentiment, but chances are bigger it will go sideways and maybe slowely higher,
Bình luận:
It almost looked like the negative sentiment was loosing strenght, but with this drop it's at full power strenght again. The red resistance line worked perfectley! It bounced of several times. It is showing some buying power now around the 13.800, but that will be probably only be short term
Bình luận: Think were are gonna see some consolidation again. It's is very negative at the moment, so a new big drop is very well possible. I think something like this will happen now, but dont look to much at the red line, this time it's a pure guess.
Bình luận: I have closed half at 13.650
Bình luận:

It has dropped faster than i thought, it confirmes the negative sentiment now. I do think there is some support now, that's why i have closed half my position, cause i have a very big position from the 15K/16K level. Not taking to much risk with the Bitcoin!!
Bình luận:
If it drops below this triangle, expect low 13K
Bình luận: Above the red line, probably go back to the 14.500 area
Bình luận:
Bình luận: It is trying to turn up again and make an end to this downward correction, So far no succes, but to stay weak it should drop the coming 24H, even now as you can see in the chart, the pink cirkel, its trying to turn up again, making higher highs and higher lows. The red area is a big resistance now, it already failed to go above this level, showing a sign of selling pressure! The grean area is an important short term support, below this level it could accelerate downwards again!

Bình luận: The 'long' term chart, this still looks bearish, but there are some signs of strenght. The failed attempt to go higher at the arrow at 16.400 was a very weak signal!. But the other 2 arrows show that drops towards low 13K is seen as a good buy opportunity. Volume is also not decreasing, which shows some strenght. A rise above 15.500 suggests the bearish sentiment is weakening. To stay weak, it should stay below the read area around 14.500

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by the way; which marketplace and trading platforms are you using for bitcoin day trading? or you suggest? I want a good marketplace that execute immediately for any kind of trading like day trading or even the possibility to short him
I'm actually a self trader on futures and currency since 12 years
thanks a lot
Phản hồi
botje11 Davex990
@Davex990, That's a difficult one for the crypto world. Fees and liquidity is just a nightmare. I use Bitfinex the most, I have used Bitmex also for future trading, but i don't like it at all!. I have tried to looking for better alternatives, but have not found one yet, so if you have a suggestion lets hear it :) Or someone else maybe. I began 20 years ago learning to day trade. Only half a year ago i also trade the Crypto markets, it's really a different world. So i am also still learning :)
+1 Phản hồi
It is trying to turn up again and make an end to this downward correction, So far no succes, but to stay weak it should drop the coming 24H, even now as you can see in the chart, the pink cirkel, its trying to turn up again, making higher highs and higher lows. The red area is a big resistance now, it already failed to go above this level, showing a sign of selling pressure! The grean area is an important short term support, below this level it could accelerate downwards again!

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good shit man good shit
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botje11 TheCryptoLabs
@TheCryptoLabs, hahaha :) yeah it was spot on once again
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Look out below!
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Thanks for the play by play, great analysis and simple graphs to follow. Tuned in!
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botje11 aggie08nt
@aggie08nt, Thank you, i do my best :)
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Wow. I am new to all this. I bought in around July and made huge profits. Sold them to pay off bills. Then bought more, with nothing to do with analysis. Now, I lost a good amount. I am reading your charts and others much more. But I also want to learn. Anyone out there have suggestions?
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botje11 karacter0
@karacter0, Thats the impression that all the unexperienced have about these crypto markets, that the only way is up! And that every big corection is a perfect buy opportunity, if only life was that easy :). Be carefull and try to learn your own style with these markets. There are many approaches and tactics possible, good luck
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