If you have been following my earlier posts part 1, part 2 and part 3, you will see that I have been watching the bear and bull scenarios since 11k. I have been trading the bear scenario since 11k, although I missed some entries because of the lack of any substantial retraces and I got stopped out on the last short entry at 7.5k yesterday. I have held the view for some time that until BTC breaks and closes above the trendline , I will maintain a bearish view but be mindful of a switch to a bullish scenario.
BTC has now broken and closed above the long term trend line , although there is an alternative trend line that could be valid which has not been broken yet. I am therefore moving from bearish to slightly bullish . Why am I not completely bullish and calling for my moon scenario just yet?
1) Whilst BTC has broken the trendline it is yet to take out any other key resistance levels which in the short term are 8.5k and 9.1k. In particular, breaking and closing above 9.1k would be a significant bullish signal.
2) Whilst BTC does not have to replicate 2014 price action it can be useful to compare against it. If it were following a similar path to 2014, I see three potential scenarios:
Scenario 1: Short term bear then bull to 11k
Refused at trend line , retest 6.5-6.8k to then break through and impulse up to 11k
Scenario 2: Bull to 11k
BTC has broken through the trendline and will continue up impulsively to 11k
Scenario 3: Bear to 3-4k
BTC has not broken through the alternative trend line (going through the second 11k wave) and will move back down to complete the 5th and final impulse of the C wave to 3-4k.
My instincts say we are most likely following something similar to Scenario 3. However, in the short term I will trade a bullish scenario which takes BTC to 11k and potentially on to the moon. Invalidation of this view would be if BTC moves back into and closes below the trendline .
In the immediate short term I added a small position long with a target of 8.4k. If BTC tests the trend line and moves up from it I will look to add to my long position. If it breaks and closes below it, I will close my position. A drop below 7.2k will move me back to my bearish view.
BTC has now broken and closed above the long term trend line , although there is an alternative trend line that could be valid which has not been broken yet. I am therefore moving from bearish to slightly bullish . Why am I not completely bullish and calling for my moon scenario just yet?
1) Whilst BTC has broken the trendline it is yet to take out any other key resistance levels which in the short term are 8.5k and 9.1k. In particular, breaking and closing above 9.1k would be a significant bullish signal.
2) Whilst BTC does not have to replicate 2014 price action it can be useful to compare against it. If it were following a similar path to 2014, I see three potential scenarios:
Scenario 1: Short term bear then bull to 11k
Refused at trend line , retest 6.5-6.8k to then break through and impulse up to 11k
Scenario 2: Bull to 11k
BTC has broken through the trendline and will continue up impulsively to 11k
Scenario 3: Bear to 3-4k
BTC has not broken through the alternative trend line (going through the second 11k wave) and will move back down to complete the 5th and final impulse of the C wave to 3-4k.
My instincts say we are most likely following something similar to Scenario 3. However, in the short term I will trade a bullish scenario which takes BTC to 11k and potentially on to the moon. Invalidation of this view would be if BTC moves back into and closes below the trendline .
In the immediate short term I added a small position long with a target of 8.4k. If BTC tests the trend line and moves up from it I will look to add to my long position. If it breaks and closes below it, I will close my position. A drop below 7.2k will move me back to my bearish view.
Bình luận:
This is the updated bear scenario
Bình luận:
BTC hit the initial target of 8.4k and I maintained my small long position. I am now expecting to see 8k tested again, which coincides with the 0.236 fib. It may bounce from here to test the 9.1k main resistance. However, it may also continue down to 7.8k (0.382) or 7.5k (0.5 fib). If I see a bounce in any of these areas I will be looking to re-enforce my long. If BTC breaks below 7.5k I think we could see a big sell off as I imagine this will be a key place for stops on a lot of longs. I have also labelled an ABC formation in grey which we might have completed, ready for the next big wave down.
I am looking at potential scenario(s) that *might* unfold that might allow me to consider a trade against my plan. These are my personal opinions and not advice. Please do your own research and plan trades that work for your plan.
Best break down of both possible scenarios I've seen here in Tradingview. Great work. ...and thanks for sharing.
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Great analysis. I am also trading long since sub 7k. I think scenario 2 is very similar because of the consolidation/symmetrical triangle before the spike. Keep up the updates. Again, very very good TA.
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