The big plus for me on BTC is that has stayed up. A lot of people have had there money trimmed or lost in the run down and you could expect Retail traders to be leaving after the pain. But Greed, and ego are powerful things and it appears there are still many in the market looking to make back some of those losses.
The most interesting thing with for me is that every time spikes on a selling day the next day is a buying day. Perhaps traders are buying the dips, i think its more likely some big players are trying to maintain price and keep there profits. If you brought at under $1000 you can spend a lot of money trying to protect $6,000 (especially if you believe that some mining operations become marginal around this cost) The big early players will know if they dump at these levels not only BTC but crypto may not survive. They have to stay and they give a potentially nice place for the rest of us to trade from. As always the why is interesting to chat about but really we know we have a bottom around $6,000 and buying following any serious efforts to sell. The rest is just our opinions and we don’t trade those.
So the suggests we may have a base around 6,000 (the red horizontal line) but where to from here.
For me the 200Day moving average (The Green line) is the next key, we have seen a break of the and are now retesting it from below. If we get a bounce short which I expect then I think we are likely to spend some time ranging between the $6000 level and the 200ema.
If we break the 200 and close above I would expect a pretty quick trip to, 10,000 (The pink line) and then a retest of the 200 , a bounce here would see $12,000( The Black Line) in play quickly and then I expect consolidation between the 200EMA and 12,000 for some time.
The real excitement for traders comes if we break below $6,000, which could see $4000 in play pretty quickly and some really bad news for BTC holders. Or a break above $12,000 which could see us test the highs around end of year.
Technically for now I think the base at $6,000 looks pretty solid, as long as we continue to see the buying days follow the high selling days. If that pattern goes then hold onto your hats and I will sit on the sideliners for a while. As long as the base holds at $6,000 I expect we will see some range between it and 10,000 and then 12,000 for some time. By year end I could if the technical picture remains the same and we have a Break and retest above the 200 along the way, I could see us getting back towards old highs.
Remember to make Dollars your decisions need to make Sense. Take your time and trade wisely, this is a long term view and not one to be rushed into.
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From the original post.
If we break the 200 ema and close above I would expect a pretty quick trip to, 10,000 (The pink line)
The move up has lacked another low to confirm our bottom, and now the question is are going back down to put one in, or just consolidating between 10,ooo and 12,000. Only the charts and time will really tell us but i suspect this is profit taking and a base around 10K is likely.
We will watch and keep you updated.
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