Bitcoin upwards momentum second half of 2018 --> $11600?
Hey guys,
How are you? Back on TradingView with the updated version of the chart I've created a few months ago, where I was expecting the retracement from the 10K zone onwards towards probably this 5.8K zone as given scenario. We've reached that, so little update.
First: fundamental part. Potential ETF rumours. Wider adoption by MasterCard and other companies, South Korea being the first one and innovator on the fields, indicating that they'll start regulating the markets. Not only that, but also G20 is coming around the corner, indicating that we'll most likely not see regulations yet, but the start-up phase for it will start (in my honest belief).
Conspiracy (don't take serious): next G20 somewhere in 2019 we'll see the kick-off of real regulations + ETF launch. Huge upwards run towards that moment, major bearmarket afterwards. This could very well be combined with the fact that I do believe the cycle is 5 years (if there's a cycle), where we'll be heading from the first rally upwards towards the next one, which we've seen in 2013 towards 2014.
Then technical point of view.
Monthly chart: Negative cross happened on the MACD --> doesn't say much, as it's a mostly behind the price movements. Stoch strongly bottomed out, RSI going back to normal levels.
Weekly chart: RSI bounced on 40 zone, which is quite important from the fact that below this was the initial bearmarket in 2015 and 2016. MACD histogram bullish divergence, MACD turning upwards and potential positive cross + Stoch turning upwards.
3 Days chart: Strong bullish divergence on RSI, stronger than the ones before. Stoch bullish divergence and MACD bullish divergence (already build since April)
2 Days chart: Massive bullish divergence on RSI, way stronger than February/April. Since April bullish divergence on MACD & Massive strong bullish divergence on Stoch.
1 Day chart: Same conclusions as on the daily.
What do we see more? We did break the important $6,800 level (which is important, as it's the horizontal resistance from April & February if you use the lines).
We can see a huge falling wedge here, which it did finish the ABCDE more or less right now. We can potentially see all sorts of inverse head & shoulders patterns and a small increase in the last drop down inducing that we're around the bottom. Also the Wyckoff pattern played out very well.
Good to see that everything lines up perfectly, right?
Also. The G20 event isn't necessarily about Bitcoin, as Bitcoin is not a crypto. It's just an asset like gold. The G20 event is about the other coins build on for instance Ethereum, as these are for sure crypto's.
What did we see in December? Yes, buy the rumour, sell the news principle on Bitcoin with the futures. What do we see now on the other hand on BTC? Many many bullish news in the recent drop down: sell the rumor, buy the news, ending up with a breakout upwards.
The G20 event is now and almost all altcoins are dumped down and showing the same bullish signals as BTC did before the breakout --> sell the rumour, buy the news concept. Waiting for the G20 news.
So, what am I expecting? A great second half for Bitcoin and not a bearmarket for now. We potentially could run upwards towards $11,600 (the magical resistance zone) and potentially lead towards a drop to $10.000 there.
Numbers are subjective, but could be likely --> ending up with the disbelief phase and truly I see many people already in that phase. Expecting the falling wedge to be broken out during the coming weeks.
Thanks for reading!
How are you? Back on TradingView with the updated version of the chart I've created a few months ago, where I was expecting the retracement from the 10K zone onwards towards probably this 5.8K zone as given scenario. We've reached that, so little update.
First: fundamental part. Potential ETF rumours. Wider adoption by MasterCard and other companies, South Korea being the first one and innovator on the fields, indicating that they'll start regulating the markets. Not only that, but also G20 is coming around the corner, indicating that we'll most likely not see regulations yet, but the start-up phase for it will start (in my honest belief).
Conspiracy (don't take serious): next G20 somewhere in 2019 we'll see the kick-off of real regulations + ETF launch. Huge upwards run towards that moment, major bearmarket afterwards. This could very well be combined with the fact that I do believe the cycle is 5 years (if there's a cycle), where we'll be heading from the first rally upwards towards the next one, which we've seen in 2013 towards 2014.
Then technical point of view.
Monthly chart: Negative cross happened on the MACD --> doesn't say much, as it's a mostly behind the price movements. Stoch strongly bottomed out, RSI going back to normal levels.
Weekly chart: RSI bounced on 40 zone, which is quite important from the fact that below this was the initial bearmarket in 2015 and 2016. MACD histogram bullish divergence, MACD turning upwards and potential positive cross + Stoch turning upwards.
3 Days chart: Strong bullish divergence on RSI, stronger than the ones before. Stoch bullish divergence and MACD bullish divergence (already build since April)
2 Days chart: Massive bullish divergence on RSI, way stronger than February/April. Since April bullish divergence on MACD & Massive strong bullish divergence on Stoch.
1 Day chart: Same conclusions as on the daily.
What do we see more? We did break the important $6,800 level (which is important, as it's the horizontal resistance from April & February if you use the lines).
We can see a huge falling wedge here, which it did finish the ABCDE more or less right now. We can potentially see all sorts of inverse head & shoulders patterns and a small increase in the last drop down inducing that we're around the bottom. Also the Wyckoff pattern played out very well.
Good to see that everything lines up perfectly, right?
Also. The G20 event isn't necessarily about Bitcoin, as Bitcoin is not a crypto. It's just an asset like gold. The G20 event is about the other coins build on for instance Ethereum, as these are for sure crypto's.
What did we see in December? Yes, buy the rumour, sell the news principle on Bitcoin with the futures. What do we see now on the other hand on BTC? Many many bullish news in the recent drop down: sell the rumor, buy the news, ending up with a breakout upwards.
The G20 event is now and almost all altcoins are dumped down and showing the same bullish signals as BTC did before the breakout --> sell the rumour, buy the news concept. Waiting for the G20 news.
So, what am I expecting? A great second half for Bitcoin and not a bearmarket for now. We potentially could run upwards towards $11,600 (the magical resistance zone) and potentially lead towards a drop to $10.000 there.
Numbers are subjective, but could be likely --> ending up with the disbelief phase and truly I see many people already in that phase. Expecting the falling wedge to be broken out during the coming weeks.
Thanks for reading!