It’s hard to deny that BTC is in a bearish descending triangle and there is not much to say until the triangle is broken, but in my opinion, Bitcoin is in a bullish re-accumulation. Typically, the breakout from a descending triangle is triggered to the downside, but not all descending triangles breakout to the downside. You can also see an upside breakout. In this case, it becomes a continuation pattern instead of a reversal pattern.
Here is a pretty interesting thing: according to Bulkowski's website, if price rises into the pattern, it breaks out upward 63% of the time. So, when the triangle occurs in an uptrend, the odds that it breaks down are only 37%!
If we do break this triangle to the upside, the up move will be very violent and swift. Important level to break is 11k. If we close above 11k, that will imply that this correction/accumulation is over and that we could be into the next wave of advance. And when we take out that local high at 12k, then it’s going to get really crazy bullish.
If the decision is to continue advancing, then things become very interesting. The question will be: are we going to break all-time high this year or in 2020?
As a trader, it's better to be open to all possibilities. Keep an opened mind. What if we broke this triangle to the downside? Technically, the drop below 9k gives us a reason to short, but we don’t believe that would mean a trend change.
We are nearing a cluster of news events, which starts with Bakkt launch on Sept. 23. Whenever BTC is captured in a tight range and there are such news events as Bakkt, 6 moths CME Futures expiry or ETF denial/approval incoming, this is a perfect time for manipulation and the probability of a fake out is very high.
The weekly EMA21 is going to be at ~9.3k next week. Historically, this EMA was very relevant and supported the price during the previous bull market. Don’t think we will lose it this time, but there could be a decent wick below. We can have the so-called Single Busted Descending Triangle (google it if you are not familiar with it). And if that is the case, BUY THE DIP! 4 digit price for Bitcoin is a gift. If you are here for the long term, it doesn’t make much of a difference whether you buy at 8k or 9k.
The problem with bearish case is that too many people expect the dip. What does that mean? If too many people expect the dip, it may not happen. Keep that in mind. This bull run tends to fool the crowd by its irrationality. Won’t be surprised if the majority don’t get in being left with open orders at 8-8.5k.
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The information given is never financial advice. Always do your own research.
What about descending triangle ?
Any triangle is a continuation pattern, the form does not matter.
In this specific situation, the triangle is forming into an uptrend, so it's basically bullish by nature. In 2018, the triangle was forming during a confirmed downtrend, after a big movement downward from 20k to 6k.