If we look at the natural price progression of BTC , had it naturally progressed instead of going completely parabolic at the end of last year, the price would be at exactly $8800, which also happens to be the 200 and a very strong support. Moreover, we are just about to be oversold.
If we break under the the 200 , we may very well enter a long bear market with the next strong at around $6000. OUCH.
A *LOT* of institutional money is about to enter the market. For this reason, I don't think we'll break below the 200 . The last time we were trading under the 200 was Oct 15, 2015 following a long bear trend. We are likely on our way to a recovery within the next few days.