Hi All,
Welcome to the Taiwan Bear talk show again.
I have always been calling financial institutions and manipulators “The Whales”. Then I read something interesting last week which it suggests it’s called the “Cartel” instead of The Whales. If you would like to read about it, I will be posting the link on my Twitter shortly. Due to TV’s house rules, I cannot attach the link here.
It has confirmed my theories in which I have been telling others - the news does not affect the price - it’s simply a way of manipulation. Remember when I called the crash on SPX, right before it happened? Then, on my second TA on SPX, I said SPX is going to retrace to $2665 - $2707.37 and then drop again? Both my predictions followed through, from a pure TA perspective. If you would like to look at my 2x TA on the SPX crash, I have attached the links below.
People talked about news, what Trump said…blah blah blah. To me, it’s just pure TA. You think Trump is not making a fortune out of the crash?
Now, let’s come back to the chart on BTC. The two pumps happened in the last 5x candles look like they're just triggering people’s stop losses. The volume was low and if you look at the first circle in blue, after a long consolidation phase in which it formed a pennant (the smaller one), I assumed that quite many people placed their short positions on the break out of the pennant (circled in red) and has set their SL right above the pennant? Unfortunately for those people, BTC suddenly reversed back and went above the pennant and triggered their SL.
Because of the force, it triggered the 2nd set of SL. When the breakout happened on the bigger pennant to the downside, many people has placed their short positions on the break out. And I assumed those people set their SL right above the pennant as well. So, when the 1st SL got triggered, the price shoot up, and triggered the 2nd SL and caused BTC went above the EMA20, without much volume. Soon after, BTC got a little pump again and triggered the 3rd set of SL, right above the short term downtrend line (black).
So, what’s going to happen? If you look at my yellow box, BTC hit right on the 0.382 retrace and got rejected straight away, with no follow through. Also, I have included the mid-term downtrend line in grey. You can also notice the trend line coincides right on the 0.382 retrace which, adds another resistance level. However, in saying that, I assumed many people set their SL on their short positions right above the grey downtrend line? If BTC got a little pump again, it can triggered these SL and BTC can jump to the 0.236 retrace @ $7245.3 very quickly. And that is a crucial level to watch closely. If BTC happens to “close” a 4hr candle above that price level, I might place a few long positions and set my SL right below it. But I really can’t see that happening in this bear market.
The direction is unclear at the moment but I am still leaning towards bearish and I still think BTC will drop down to $4436.
If you like my TA, please don’t forget to "Like" :)
Taiwan Bear
******************************************************************************************
Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.
Some tips for you:
- Set up an entry/exit strategy for every trade, with the ideal risk/reward ratio (2+)
- Understand that every trade carries a risk, and don’t expect you can make profits from every trade
- When you follow a trader on TV, you want to follow someone who looks at the big picture, not just counting EW. And that trader should identify a trend/pattern that you don’t see.
Welcome to the Taiwan Bear talk show again.
I have always been calling financial institutions and manipulators “The Whales”. Then I read something interesting last week which it suggests it’s called the “Cartel” instead of The Whales. If you would like to read about it, I will be posting the link on my Twitter shortly. Due to TV’s house rules, I cannot attach the link here.
It has confirmed my theories in which I have been telling others - the news does not affect the price - it’s simply a way of manipulation. Remember when I called the crash on SPX, right before it happened? Then, on my second TA on SPX, I said SPX is going to retrace to $2665 - $2707.37 and then drop again? Both my predictions followed through, from a pure TA perspective. If you would like to look at my 2x TA on the SPX crash, I have attached the links below.
People talked about news, what Trump said…blah blah blah. To me, it’s just pure TA. You think Trump is not making a fortune out of the crash?
Now, let’s come back to the chart on BTC. The two pumps happened in the last 5x candles look like they're just triggering people’s stop losses. The volume was low and if you look at the first circle in blue, after a long consolidation phase in which it formed a pennant (the smaller one), I assumed that quite many people placed their short positions on the break out of the pennant (circled in red) and has set their SL right above the pennant? Unfortunately for those people, BTC suddenly reversed back and went above the pennant and triggered their SL.
Because of the force, it triggered the 2nd set of SL. When the breakout happened on the bigger pennant to the downside, many people has placed their short positions on the break out. And I assumed those people set their SL right above the pennant as well. So, when the 1st SL got triggered, the price shoot up, and triggered the 2nd SL and caused BTC went above the EMA20, without much volume. Soon after, BTC got a little pump again and triggered the 3rd set of SL, right above the short term downtrend line (black).
So, what’s going to happen? If you look at my yellow box, BTC hit right on the 0.382 retrace and got rejected straight away, with no follow through. Also, I have included the mid-term downtrend line in grey. You can also notice the trend line coincides right on the 0.382 retrace which, adds another resistance level. However, in saying that, I assumed many people set their SL on their short positions right above the grey downtrend line? If BTC got a little pump again, it can triggered these SL and BTC can jump to the 0.236 retrace @ $7245.3 very quickly. And that is a crucial level to watch closely. If BTC happens to “close” a 4hr candle above that price level, I might place a few long positions and set my SL right below it. But I really can’t see that happening in this bear market.
The direction is unclear at the moment but I am still leaning towards bearish and I still think BTC will drop down to $4436.
If you like my TA, please don’t forget to "Like" :)
Taiwan Bear
******************************************************************************************
Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.
Some tips for you:
- Set up an entry/exit strategy for every trade, with the ideal risk/reward ratio (2+)
- Understand that every trade carries a risk, and don’t expect you can make profits from every trade
- When you follow a trader on TV, you want to follow someone who looks at the big picture, not just counting EW. And that trader should identify a trend/pattern that you don’t see.
Bình luận:
Just to show you how I drew the black and grey downtrend line.
Bình luận:
Poor XRP. Yesterday's pump can't even get XRP above the 0.618 retrace.
It just shows how weak the market is. Probably only the HODLers are holding onto their XRP long positions.
This happens to LTC as well.
It just shows how weak the market is. Probably only the HODLers are holding onto their XRP long positions.
This happens to LTC as well.
Bình luận:
Some people's stop losses on their short positions got triggered, right above the grey trend line, without much volume (< EMA20). Soon after that, BTC retested the 0.382 retrace and got rejected.
It looks to me that the retrace of a downtrend has completed. If you are going long, watch out the 0.618 retrace @ $6831.4 & 0.786 retrace @ $6649.4 as if those levels don't hold, 6.4k will probably not be able to hold.
It looks to me that the retrace of a downtrend has completed. If you are going long, watch out the 0.618 retrace @ $6831.4 & 0.786 retrace @ $6649.4 as if those levels don't hold, 6.4k will probably not be able to hold.
Bình luận:
Dear followers, just to letting you know that I didn't forget about you. BTC dropped from my "No trading zone" to $6959 in the last few candles, then went back up to the no trading zone again.
By looking at the RSI across the Cryptos market, especially ETH is now @ 70, I think it will drop today if not, tomorrow.
By looking at the RSI across the Cryptos market, especially ETH is now @ 70, I think it will drop today if not, tomorrow.
Bình luận:
ETH - RSI overbought + double top
