I've been monitoring sentiment data and concluded that the rallies I see in altcoins might have to do with the fact that the recent drop in BTCUSD might only be a shake out before seeing higher prices, since people freaked out rather quickly after the drop. If we were seeing a top, they would remain calm and complacent, and count their profits in advance, when they reach their ridiculous targets. BCH is being accumulated and now ready to move up once more. Risk/reward in it is far superior and I like it as a contrarian play. Until I get a good enough signal to buy BTC, I'll remain flat, and involved in other coins instead. If my analysis is correct and BCHUSD doesn't fail to rally, it would easily outperform BTCUSD during the next leg up, even if BTCUSD lands on the top target at 23305.1 by year end or earlier. After the year ends, odds of a correction or consolidation of large scale become huge, so, I'd reccomend being cautious, probably good to take some money out of crypto by then.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
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Moving as expected here. Anticipating sideways action until the CME futures launch, then up one last time.
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Daily signals in BTCUSD extend possible upside targets, but odds are slimmer. Overall, I envision the top at 25k+-
What people should remember is that as things accelerate there will be exchanges breaking down left and right. It's already started happening. None of them are ready infrastructure-wise.
If selling the top is hard in normal conditions, then it's nigh on impossible here. Exchanges like Kraken already have huge issues - trying to place an order under current "normal" conditions can take quite often dozens of tries or more to register, by which time the price can make significant moves.
Margin pools are drying up and then being replenished.
Many report limit orders not working or working sometimes and not others.
Keeping funds off exchange is safe but customer service can't keep up with the pace and deposits get bottlenecked. BTC confirmation times multiply as activity surges. It's a total mess!
This is already happening now and things will only get much more unstable.
IvanLabrie
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@BRRD, yes, it will be hell if you want to trade quickly in and out of things...I'd only hold what I'm comfortable to see drop 50% in value at one point...from now on. And keep it off exchange.
criptoraily
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@IvanLabrie, is there a way to keep off fundings in USD/EUR without wire transfer??
Wiretransfer takes days to complete and you can miss a lot of opportunities...
criptoraily
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@criptoraily, Keep off funding from exchanges i mean
Passa
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Great the charts seem legitimate..
Great work done by you
I appreciate it
@BernhardAnalytics, yes, I ended up selling for ETH, ETHBTC went up on the first swing down in BTCUSD, and then sold the ETH for USD. Overall, we did ok, most people lost huge, me and my clients even gained some money since the top. You too... ;)
BRRD
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More back of the envelope stuff...
Previous run-ups ran out of steam when volume increased by very roughly 20x from the start of the run. Last week's candle clearly hit that target.
I remember years ago the rule of thumb was that when BTC doubled in a week... it was time to sell. These days I think that timescales are stretched and this should be taken into consideration. Bitcoin just doubled in 2.5 weeks. That's enough for me!
Exchanges breaking down - a few days ago flash crashes and margin calls on Bitfinex for several alts wiped the accounts of probably thousands of traders, leaving many owing Bitfinex money :\
The most important takeaway!
What people should remember is that as things accelerate there will be exchanges breaking down left and right. It's already started happening. None of them are ready infrastructure-wise.
If selling the top is hard in normal conditions, then it's nigh on impossible here. Exchanges like Kraken already have huge issues - trying to place an order under current "normal" conditions can take quite often dozens of tries or more to register, by which time the price can make significant moves.
Margin pools are drying up and then being replenished.
Many report limit orders not working or working sometimes and not others.
Keeping funds off exchange is safe but customer service can't keep up with the pace and deposits get bottlenecked. BTC confirmation times multiply as activity surges. It's a total mess!
This is already happening now and things will only get much more unstable.