I started trading crypto and bitcoin back in July in 2021 when I started studying Wyckoff distribution patterns and found this 3 day wyckoff pattern.
Bitcoin 1st Peaked when Robinhood & Coinbase IPOd back on March/April of 2021. Followed by a 2nd Peak when Bitcoin ETF IPOd back in October
Bitcoin began to sell off hard after a Coinbase hack that put them offline for several hours/days in late October.
This updated the original Wyckoff Distribution Pattern and decided to redo it using Fibonacci Time Zone, Retracements & Trend Based Extensions.
What’s interesting about these patterns is they all coincide with each other and major events in financial and world events.
Take the starting point of the Oct 03, 2020 is around the time Robinhood became popular.
The PSY peak is right at insurrection on Jan 6th 2021
The bounce off PSY 0.382 retracement as Gamestop and Dogecoin took flight in main stream media.
These events set the stage for the entire first Wykoff Phase A as we see BC reach the 1 extension and ST reach the 1.272 extension.
These are upward trend retracement and extension.
To Find SOW in phase B I will be looking to find downward trend retracements and extensions in a following update for the GME anniversary.
If you follow any of my stock market macro, you will see BTC is closely correlated to major indexes which I plan on researching more closely in the coming weeks.
As we approach a major selloff in indexes on Jan 19th OPEX.
We find ourselves ending phase A on the eve of Gamestop's 1st anniversary.
Trade Safe!
As always, I’ll be back
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Added new idea to follow downtrend retracements and extension in an attempt to predict the SOW for this wyckoff chart.
@TheCryptonium, really good question. This particular pattern would suggest its invalid but from a macro perspective I would think it's possible if you factor in all the alt coins helping drive price up and down.
BlackStone22
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@TheCryptonium, Read this on a Wyckoff Article "If the ST goes lower than that of the SC, one can anticipate either new lows or prolonged consolidation." This applies to accumulation schematics but I'm assuming the same would work for distribution.
kuwarabhi86
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nobody can stop btc from falling
WeapoN1
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I agree 100%, there's nothing to certain in crypto market but you sure did an excellent job, subbed
niceHead91742
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yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa i like it baby
Ricorico89
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three drive is possible
magnus101
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This is playing out so perfectly! Seems like current levels at around 25k are a good buying opportunity.
SPYvsGME
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@magnus101, Yes just don't buy with anything you are not willing to lose in bitcoin. SOW could go as low as 17s. with the rest of the economy sliding there will be just as good buying opportunities in equities.
magnus101
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@SPYvsGME, thank you for the tips. I have been following this pattern closely. Do you still think this is in play? I personally think so for now. I'm expecting it to touch the 17s during the next few weeks and then rally on inflation expectations coming down. I believe we're going much lower in the future, but while we have such bearish sentiment in the markets we will probably see a painful rally (for the shorts) before the real brutal crash in a few years time. Choppy times ahead!