Many people are still in denial and I have also been clinging to the idea that we may be going for another high but let's face it. Until the recent weeks the bitcoin trend line has only been getting steeper and steeper but this time around the trend line has been broken. The market has made some efforts to recover but it was rejected each time.
As visible on the Bittrex chart we have created a massive bearish flag and it's just a matter of time until the next news are gonna break the support and send Bitcoin into freefall. Or if we get rejected on lower levels, we will break down, too.
Moreover the yearly chart signifies a huge bubble and such bubbles have been massively rewarding for us - both on bitcoin and other cryptos but eventually they all snap. The only difference that many people fail to recognize is that the Bitcoin bubble has been much slower moving and therefore much bigger which gave an illusion of unlimited growth. But if you take a look at DOGEBTC chart you'll see examples of cyclical short-lived bubbles. Bitcoin differs by its sheer scale and nothing else.
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The current fall doesn't have to mean an end but a new cycle
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There is another resitance forming on the 1h period. The RSI and SRSI are suggesting oversold but the entire market seems to be losing steam heavily and is craving for another drop to 30-point levels, similar to previous serious corrections.
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I still don't get why so many analysts were erroneously suggesting that there was a triangle formed when the middle top wasn't reaching the resistance line. That was a basic mistake to me. Another thing was the more and more frequent testing of the support line and then finally the very, very low lying resistance line a few hours before.
Now there is 10-8-5k on the table.
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I added some correction levels to expect. I am still majorly bearish on BTC and I think that it will hit 5k in order to begin a new cycle. But the SMA100 has been a major support previously (blue line) and we can expect a bounce there. The support from 22nd December has just been tested positively for now so you can make your exit today if you're still in. In the next couple of days we may drop to the SMA100 (10600-ish levels). The next support will be the trendline crossing the 78.6% Fib - $8800 and then the preboom level $5.1-5.6k.
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I'm sharing another great analysis by mkhaytman who prophecised this crash with unbelievable accuracy. Go visit his profile and follow him :)
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So there's hope that the trend is going to pick up!
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The June correction wasn't as deep on the Fib levels. This time we reached 38.20%.
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I created a new thread
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We're at a support (at least on a Bittrex chart), let's see what happens now.
@elshanti, yeah the 22nd December is just a temporary support. I'm hoping for a little bounce here for those who still want to cut their losses before we enter the next stage of correction
elshanti
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@AdrianZieniewicz, we might see then a huge capitulation doji all the way to 8-8.5k range tomorrow or in us opening today
AdrianZen
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@elshanti, I think the correction will stretch over several days with some green candles in between but the real panic hasn't even set in.
elshanti
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@AdrianZieniewicz, I analyzed previous corrections and found that the death cross ( 50 MA and 20 MA cross) is really a strong shake off indicator leading to a capitulation in most cases.. the buy volume is very low however
elshanti
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@elshanti, the only thing that might slow down this process is the flee of the capital from alt coins to bitcoin.. i observed a huge bounce in Binance from 10600 to 11700 in a 30 minute candle